Month: March 2016

Daily Market Update – March 14, 2016 (9:30 AM)

It’s hard to believe that after such an abysmal start to 2016 that the market is almost close to the breakeven point.

There’s no doubt that the climb has been completely in line with the move higher in oil futures.

No other story has really carried any weight in 2016.

China, interest rates and anything else that may have popped up last year, especially acting to bring markets lower, have just not appeared on the radar screen this year.

What we have had this year have simply been large and basically fundamental free moves in oil in one direction and then the next. That has led to equally large and directionless movement in stocks.

That is, up until about 2 weeks ago when the direction in the price of oil has been mostly higher, despite an occasional dip lower or an intra-day reversal.

This week, though, we may get a little respite from oil as the FOMC Statement is released and there is a Janet Yellen press conference to follow.

Most don’t expect a hike in interest rates at this meeting, but the market doesn’t necessarily need anything tangible to blow things out of proportion.

Simple nuances or slight changes in wording in the statement itself could lead to one reaction and then the more nuanced words during Yellen’s prepared statement and her responses to questions afterward could lead to even more over-reaction.

Lately, the dovish Yellen hasn’t always sounded dovish and she hasn’t been able to give stock markets the same kind of euphoria that she did earlier in her tenure, but you never know what’s in store.

maybe even a rate hike?

I would just like to have some opportunity to make money this week or to raise money.

I would love to see the market continue higher just to get those opportunities. Actually, it wouldn’t even take the market’s move higher to make me happy. Just some specific stocks, especially if I can get to sell some new calls.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a couple of opportunities to rollover or see assignments, I’d love to supplement whatever income already seems likely with some more.

Greedy? Maybe, but not overly so. All I want is a little bit more at a time.

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Daily Market Update – March 11, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  none

Expirations:  GM

The following were ex-dividend this week;  HPE (3/7 $0.06), HPQ (3/7 $0.12), KSS (3/7 $0.50), NEM (3/8 $0.03), GM (3/9 $0.38), M (3/11 $0.36)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), JOY (3/16 $0.01), LVS (3/18 $0.72)

Trades, if any, will be attempted be made prior to 3:30 PM EST

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Daily Market Update – March 10, 2016 (Close))

The script seems to stay the same day after day.

It’s just the direction that’s subject to change,although sometimes there’s no direction.

That was case this morning as oil was fairly flat and so too were the stock markets that have dutifully been following.

Even the NASDAQ 100 has been pretty much in tune with oil, even as you scratch your head to wonder why that might be the case.

With little left in the final days of this week to offer anything substantive, you could be excused for casting eyes on next week and the upcoming FOMC Statement release.

At this point no one really expects any change in interest rates, but the Chairman’s press conference that follows may offer some glimpses into what the FOMC is thinking.

Janet Yellen did just that at her very first press conference, or may simply have “mis-spoke,” but she sent markets moving.

In that particular case it was in the wrong direction, but since then, her history is admirable and the market has generally taken note of her words with a sense of optimism.

Since we all know that the FOMC wants to increase interest rates as soon as the scantest data may warrant, you would think that traders would let out a sigh of relief once the uncertainty is over, at least for what may be the next cycle of interest rate increases, if the FOMC prediction script is going to be true to what people believe it contains.

For what’s left of this week, i would just like to have an opportunity to roll over the one position set to expire and certainly wouldn’t turn down an opportunity to sell calls on anything that’s not currently covered.

With the way the market was pointing this morning, I didn’t expect that today would be a very active day, but there’s still always tomorrow and that brings the chance of another uncalled for large move in oil and stocks.

To some degree, that large move may have started during today’s mid-day, as the market made up for a nearly 200 point loss in the DJIA to end up the day just how the futures predicted the future would turn out for the day.

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Daily Market Update – March 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The script seems to stay the same day after day.

It’s just the direction that’s subject to change,although sometimes there’s no direction.

That’s the case this morning as oil is fairly flat and so too are the stock markets that have dutifully been following.

Even the NASDAQ 100 has been pretty much in tune with oil, even as you scratch your head to wonder why that might be the case.

With little left in the final days of this week to offer anything substantive, you could be excused for casting eyes on next week and the upcoming FOMC Statement release.

At this point no one really expects any change in interest rates, but the Chairman’s press conference that follows may offer some glimpses into what the FOMC is thinking.

Janet Yellen did just that at her very first press conference, or may simply have “mis-spoke,” but she sent markets moving.

In that particular case it was in the wrong direction, but since then, her history is admirable and the market has generally taken note of her words with a sense of optimism.

Since we all know that the FOMC wants to increase interest rates as soon as the scantest data may warrant, you would think that traders would let out a sigh of relief once the uncertainty is over, at least for what may be the next cycle of interest rate increases, if the FOMC prediction script is going to be true to what people believe it contains.

For what’s left of this week, i would just like to have an opportunity to roll over the one position set to expire and certainly wouldn’t turn down an opportunity to sell calls on anything that’s not currently covered.

With the way the market is pointing this morning, i don’t expect that today will be a very active day, but there’s still always tomorrow and that brings the chance of another uncalled for large move in oil and stocks.

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Daily Market Update – March 9, 2016 (Close)

The script seems to stay the same day after day.

It’s just the direction that’s subject to change.

Following a few successive days of oil moving nicely higher, it continued to take the market along with it, but not the whole market.

Over the last week or so the trickle down to stocks had been concentrated in oil and commodities, but as we all know, what goes up must come down.

That’s especially true if what goes up has gone up suddenly and significantly as had some of those long beaten down commodities.

Yesterday was their day to come back down and they did so in very big ways.

This morning oil was pointing higher again during the futures trading and once again stocks were following.

Wednesdays are always a big day for oil as reserves are announced at 10:30 AM and the market can whipsaw much the way when an FOMC Statement is released. There are knee jerk reactions and then there are opportunists flocking in and then there is reason that may set in..

That’s exactly what ended up happening today, as stocks hit near the high for the day just minutes after the inventory releases and then hit the lows for the day in just another few minutes.

Today, though, the total range was barely 100 points, making it a pretty mild day, particularly as today marked the 7th anniversary of the start of the bull market.

We could have expected that stocks may have had some twinges at around 10:30 AM, as well, but unless the news was really drastic, those Wednesday mornings aren’t that consequential for stocks, although times are different right now.

Nonetheless, just as when the week started, there really isn’t anything else of consequence that should be able to move markets. Even as they’ve been following oil, there hasn’t been much of anything there either to supply a reason for any of the moves seen.

We get rig counts on Fridays, we get oil reserves and inventories on Wednesdays, but those just allow traders to make inferences as to what the future holds.

Those inferences are usually right for minutes and one week to the next can bring significant differences in the numbers and their interpretations, even as economies tend to move at very slow paces.

You wouldn’t know that by those weekly numbers and the often frantic reactions.

I’m not expecting to do anything frantic this week with what little time remains.

Markets were pointing a little higher this morning and I gladly accepted that as the day wore on and would like to see some of those big losses reversed as we get set to close out the week and maybe set the stage for something more moderate in terms of a climb higher.

Moderate and slow is far more sustainable if you’re watching from below.

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Daily Market Update – March 9, 2016 (Close)

The script seems to stay the same day after day.

It’s just the direction that’s subject to change.

Following a few successive days of oil moving nicely higher, it continued to take the market along with it, but not the whole market.

Over the last week or so the trickle down to stocks had been concentrated in oil and commodities, but as we all know, what goes up must come down.

That’s especially true if what goes up has gone up suddenly and significantly as had some of those long beaten down commodities.

Yesterday was their day to come back down and they did so in very big ways.

This morning oil was pointing higher again during the futures trading and once again stocks were following.

Wednesdays are always a big day for oil as reserves are announced at 10:30 AM and the market can whipsaw much the way when an FOMC Statement is released. There are knee jerk reactions and then there are opportunists flocking in and then there is reason that may set in..

That’s exactly what ended up happening today, as stocks hit near the high for the day just minutes after the inventory releases and then hit the lows for the day in just another few minutes.

Today, though, the total range was barely 100 points, making it a pretty mild day, particularly as today marked the 7th anniversary of the start of the bull market.

We could have expected that stocks may have had some twinges at around 10:30 AM, as well, but unless the news was really drastic, those Wednesday mornings aren’t that consequential for stocks, although times are different right now.

Nonetheless, just as when the week started, there really isn’t anything else of consequence that should be able to move markets. Even as they’ve been following oil, there hasn’t been much of anything there either to supply a reason for any of the moves seen.

We get rig counts on Fridays, we get oil reserves and inventories on Wednesdays, but those just allow traders to make inferences as to what the future holds.

Those inferences are usually right for minutes and one week to the next can bring significant differences in the numbers and their interpretations, even as economies tend to move at very slow paces.

You wouldn’t know that by those weekly numbers and the often frantic reactions.

I’m not expecting to do anything frantic this week with what little time remains.

Markets were pointing a little higher this morning and I gladly accepted that as the day wore on and would like to see some of those big losses reversed as we get set to close out the week and maybe set the stage for something more moderate in terms of a climb higher.

Moderate and slow is far more sustainable if you’re watching from below.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The script seems to stay the same day after day.

It’s just the direction that’s subject to change.

Following a few successive days of oil moving nicely higher, it continued to take the market along with it, but not the whole market.

Over the last week or so the trickle down to stocks had been concentrated in oil and commodities, but as we all know, what goes up must come down.

That’s especially true if what goes up has gone up suddenly and significantly as had some of those long beaten down commodities.

Yesterday was their day to come back down and they did so in very big ways.

This morning oil is pointing higher again during the futures trading and once again stocks are following.

Wednesdays are always a big day for oil as reserves are announced at 10:30 AM and the market can whipsaw much the way when an FOMC Statement is released. There are knee jerk reactions and then there are opportunists flocking in and then there is reason that may set in..

We can expect that stocks may have some twinges at around 10:30 AM, as well, but unless the news is really drastic, those Wednesday mornings aren’t that consequential for stocks, although times are different right now.

Nonetheless, just as when the week started, there really isn’t anything else of consequence that should be able to move markets. Even as they’ve been following oil, there hasn’t been much of anything there either to supply a reason for any of the moves seen.

We get rig counts on Fridays, we get oil reserves on Wednesdays, but those just allow traders to make inferences as to what the future holds.

Those inferences are usually right for minutes and one week to the next can bring significant differences in the numbers and their interpretations, even as economies tend to move at very slow paces.

You wouldn’t know that by those weekly numbers and the often frantic reactions.

I’m not expecting to do anything frantic this week with what little time remains.

Markets are pointing a little higher this morning and I would gladly accept that and would like to see some of those big losses reversed today and maybe set the stage for something more moderate in terms of a climb higher.

Moderate and slow is far more sustainable if you’re watching from below.

.

.