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Daily Market Update – March 14, 2016 (9:30 AM) It’s hard to believe that after such an abysmal start to 2016 that the market is almost close to the breakeven point. There’s no doubt that the climb has been completely in line with the move higher in oil futures. No other story has really carried any weight in 2016. China, interest rates and anything else that may have popped up last year, especially acting to bring markets lower, have just not appeared on the radar screen this year. What we have had this year have simply been large and basically fundamental free moves in oil in one direction and then the next. That has led to equally large and directionless movement in stocks. That is, up until about 2 weeks ago when the direction in the price of oil has been mostly higher, despite an occasional dip lower or an intra-day reversal. This week, though, we may get a little respite from oil as the FOMC Statement is released and there is a Janet Yellen press conference to follow. Most don’t expect a hike in interest rates at this meeting, but the market doesn’t necessarily need anything tangible to blow things out of proportion. Simple nuances or slight changes in wording in the statement itself could lead to one reaction and then the more nuanced words during Yellen’s prepared statement and her responses to questions afterward could lead to even more over-reaction. Lately, the dovish Yellen hasn’t always sounded dovish and she hasn’t been able to give stock markets the same kind of euphoria that she did earlier in her tenure, but you never know what’s in store. maybe even a rate hike? I would just like to have some opportunity to make money this week or to raise money. I would love to see the market continue higher just to get those opportunities. Actually, it wouldn’t even take the market’s move higher to make me happy. Just some specific stocks, especially if I can get to sell some new calls. With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a couple of opportunities to rollover or see assignments, I’d love to supplement whatever income already seems likely with some more. Greedy? Maybe, but not overly so. All I want is a little bit more at a time. . . |
