Month: March 2016

Daily Market Update – March 8, 2016 (Close)

It’s was just another morning and oil was lower while stocks simply followed along.

Yesterday was more of the same, except that oil was higher and so were stocks.

In yesterday’s case oil was actually seriously higher, but stocks were sort of indifferent, with the DJIA showing the impact much more than the broader S&P 500.

This morning stocks were appearing to head lower than might be warranted by the move in oil.

But who knew what that would mean?

When oil ended the day falling by 4% the DJIA didn’t look too bad, but the S&P 500 which also had a broader representation of energy and commodity related stocks really showed weakness, just as it had showed relative strength over the past few days.

What goes up fast goes down the same way.

Most still have to be looking for any signs of a break in the association between stocks and oil, but the few times that it looked as if they may be getting ready to go their own way, the association quickly returned.

For now it’s still hard to see where any real economic growth would justify strength in oil. Normally a rise in oil prices would be net negative for stocks, unless there was significant economic growth behind an increase in demand for oil.

Now, it’s hard to even get anyone to agree why the price of oil had gone so low to begin with. Sure, it was over-supply, but what was the reason for that over-supply.

Now, most agree that it was more a case of over-production than under-demand, but as the price of oil has been moving higher, there’s no real indication that either supply is decreasing or demand is increasing.

It could simply be speculation at play, which could also explain some of the large moves and the frequent back and forth, although the net has been to the upside lately for both oil and stocks.

This morning both are lower and it just stayed that way all through the day as the market closed at its lows.

With a single new position opened yesterday, specifically identified for the dividend, I would have like to be able to capture that dividend, but I would have preferred if I had to rollover the position in order to keep the dividend, instead of watching it take a hit along with everything else today.

While I didn’t expect to be doing much more dipping into cash this day, if faced with losing shares to early assignment, I would have really liked to try and roll those short calls over an additional week to at least be able to get some extra premium if those shares are still going to end up being exercised early.

But not today.

At least tomorrow I’ll have the dividend. Now if only the position can be rolled or assigned, all will be good until next week.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

It’s just another morning and oil is lower while stocks simply follow along.

Yesterday was more of the same, except that oil was higher and so were stocks.

In yesterday’s case oil was actually seriously higher, but stocks were sort of indifferent, with the DJIA showing the impact much more than the broader S&P 500.

This morning stocks are appearing to head lower than might be warranted by the move in oil.

But who knows what that means?

Most have to be looking for any signs of a break in the association between stocks and oil, but the few times that it looked as if they may be getting ready to go their own way, the association quickly returned.

For now it’s still hard to see where any real economic growth would justify strength in oil. Normally a rise in oil prices would be net negative for stocks, unless there was significant economic growth behind an increase in demand for oil.

Now, it’s hard to even get anyone to agree why the price of oil had gone so low to begin with. Sure, it was over-supply, but what was the reason for that over-supply.

Now, most agree that it was more a case of over-production than under-demand, but as the price of oil has been moving higher, there’s no real indication that either supply is decreasing or demand is increasing.

It could simply be speculation at play, which could also explain some of the large moves and the frequent back and forth, although the net has been to the upside lately for both oil and stocks.

This morning both are lower.

With a single new position opened yesterday, specifically identified for the dividend, I’d like to be able to capture that dividend.

While I don’t expect to be doing much more dipping into cash this day, if faced with losing shares to early assignment, I would likely try to roll those short calls over an additional week to at least be able to get some extra premium if those shares are still going to end up being exercised early.

Otherwise, we’ll see where the winds take us today.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 7, 2016 (Close)

It will be very interesting to see what this week brings.

The story of 2016 has really been just how closely the stock market and the price of oil have been correlated.

With oil now having some life breathed into it, even if the reason for its re-birth isn’t clear, the market has moved higher.

This morning came news that the average price of gas had moved higher by $0.07 in the past 2 weeks.

At some point, those celebrating the resurgence of oil are going to ask themselves how is that good news if there’s scant evidence that it’s an expanding economy that’s shifting the supply – demand relationship.

That’s a reasonable question to be asked, but as long as the energy sector is showing some life, I’m more than happy to see that question being delayed.

Today oil seemed to do far better than stocks. The narrower DJIA may have been more influenced by oil than was the S&P 500 today, but still, a gain is a gain.

I could get used to seeing more paper profits, or to be more accurate, less paper losses.

The opportunity to sell calls on uncovered positions is really all that I would like to see at this point as a means of generating additional income without having to dip into cash reserves.

Without a fundamental basis to believe that economic growth awaits or some other catalyst is out there, it’s hard to justify spending much money, especially after the run higher in the past 3 weeks.

With the S&P 500 opening the week at 2000, it’s only 5.5% below its all time high, but the run higher has been too swift to feel comfortable about.

While next week has an FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference, there’s nothing of much significance this week to really move markets.

That is, unless, oil still holds court.

Futures were pointing to a slightly lower open to begin the week but perhaps it was that strong showing in oil that allowed it to be yet another day higher.

With another week of having a lot of ex-dividend positions I don’t feel the need to spend money, but I’d still like to generate some more income, so I was looking for the opportunity to do so, as 2016 has been an incredibly quiet year so far for any new positions to have been opened.

With a nice dividend, General Motors seemed to fill the bill. Maybe this week will mark a change, but I’m not convinced of that, at least not for the rest of the week..

I’d be happy to have repeats of any of the last 3 weeks when I barely lifted a finger to pound out a buy or sell order, but it did feel good to have at least made some effort today and gotten something to show for that effort.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 7, 2016 (9:00 AM)

It will be very interesting to see what this week brings.

The story of 2016 has really been just how closely the stock market and the price of oil have been correlated.

With oil now having some life breathed into it, even if the reason for its re-birth isn’t clear, the market has moved higher.

This morning came news that the average price of gas had moved higher by $0.07 in the past 2 weeks.

At some point, those celebrating the resurgence of oil are going to ask themselves how is that good news if there’s scant evidence that it’s an expanding economy that’s shifting the supply – demand relationship.

That’s a reasonable question to be asked, but as long as the energy sector is showing some life, I’m more than happy to see that question being delayed.

I could get used to seeing more paper profits, or to be more accurate, less paper losses.

The opportunity to sell calls on uncovered positions is really all that I would like to see at this point as a means of generating additional income without having to dip into cash reserves.

Without a fundamental basis to believe that economic growth awaits or some other catalyst is out there, it’s hard to justify spending much money, especially after the run higher in the past 3 weeks.

With the S&P 500 opening the week at 2000, it’s only 5.5% below its all time high, but the run higher has been too swift to feel comfortable about.

While next week has an FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference, there’s nothing of much significance this week to really move markets.

That is, unless, oil still holds court.

Futures are pointing to a slightly lower open to begin the week.

With another week of having a lot of ex-dividend positions I don’t feel the need to spend money, but I’d still like to generate some more income, so I’ll be looking for the opportunity to do so, as 2016 has been an incredibly quiet year so far for any new positions to have been opened.

Maybe this week will mark a change, but I’m not convinced of that.

I’d be happy to have repeats of any of the last 3 weeks when I barely lifted a finger to pound out a buy or sell order.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 4, 2016 (9:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  none

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week: HAL (2/29 $0.18), MOS (3/1 $0.28), ANF (3/2 $0.20), BAC (3/2 $0.05), COH (3/2 $0.34), HFC (3/2 $0.33), WY (3/4 $0.31)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  HPE (3/7 $0.06), HPQ (3/7 $0.12), KSS (3/7 $0.50), NEM (3/8 $0.03), GM (3/9 $0.38), M (3/11 $0.36)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EST

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 3, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another in a series of pretty satisfying days. So was today.

The market didn’t move in very much of a range either of these two past days, but if you were one of those poor souls that still has positions in some beaten down commodities, it was a two day period day that saw some large percentage gains.

Even though those large gains come nothing close to offsetting a year’s worth of losses, it felt good to see them helping an overall portfolio continue to outperform for 2016 and by an increasing margin.

Still, it doesn’t begin to make up for the paper losses.

What fascinates me is that the gains in 2 of those companies, Chesapeake Energy and Cliffs Natural Resources come after the deaths of 2 very important people in their histories.

It makes you wonder who died at Transocean.

The really unexpected passing of the founder of Chesapeake Energy yesterday, just a day after his Federal indictment was a real shocker, but the shares were well higher long before that news broke. Today they were much higher.

Much.

In the case of Cliffs Natural Resources that climb had come after the news.

Both are coincidental, I suppose, as lots of beaten down positions in energy and commodities did well yesterday as the rest of the market just sort of languished in indecision.

We’ll see if that pattern continues as the market seemed to not care too much about what oil was doing and failed to follow it lower and really didn’t follow it too much when it reversed course.

This morning oil was mildly lower and so was the market, but intra-day swings are more and more commonplace in both markets.

Today the intra-day moves were mild, but they were still in lockstep.

Unless something explosive was to happen somewhere today, I imagined it would be just another day of watching.

It was.

Tomorrow could be that explosive day, but I’m beginning to think that may not be the case, regardless of how the numbers may actually look.

Maybe we’re just ready to finally accept the possibility that the economy may be actually getting better enough to want to manage growth.

How nice that would be for everyone.

.

.

Daily Market Update – March 3, 2016 (9:00 AM)

Yesterday was another in a series of pretty satisfying days

The market didn’t move in very much of a range, but if you were one of those poor souls that has positions in some beaten down commodities, it was a day that saw some large percentage gains.

Even though those large gains come nothing close to offsetting a year’s worth of losses, it felt good to see them helping an overall portfolio continue to outperform for 2016 and by an increasing margin.

Still, it doesn’t begin to make up for the paper losses.

What fascinates me is that the gains in 2 of those companies, CHesapeake Energy and Cliffs Natural Resources come after the deaths of 2 very important people in their histories.

The really unexpected passing of the founder of Chesapeake Energy yesterday, just a day after his Federal indictment was a real shocker, but the shares were well higher long before that news broke.

In the case of Cliffs Natural Resources that climb has come after the news.

Both are coincidental, I suppose, as lots of beaten down positions in energy and commodities did well yesterday as the rest of the market just sort of languished in indecision.

We’ll see if that pattern continues as the market seemed to not care too much about what oil was doing and failed to follow it lower and really didn’t follow it too much when it reversed course.

This morning oil is mildly lower and so is the market, but intra-day swings are more and more commonplace in both markets.

Unless something explosive happens somewhere, I imagine it will be just another day of watching.

.

.