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Daily Market Update – March 9, 2016 (7:30 AM) The script seems to stay the same day after day. It’s just the direction that’s subject to change. Following a few successive days of oil moving nicely higher, it continued to take the market along with it, but not the whole market. Over the last week or so the trickle down to stocks had been concentrated in oil and commodities, but as we all know, what goes up must come down. That’s especially true if what goes up has gone up suddenly and significantly as had some of those long beaten down commodities. Yesterday was their day to come back down and they did so in very big ways. This morning oil is pointing higher again during the futures trading and once again stocks are following. Wednesdays are always a big day for oil as reserves are announced at 10:30 AM and the market can whipsaw much the way when an FOMC Statement is released. There are knee jerk reactions and then there are opportunists flocking in and then there is reason that may set in.. We can expect that stocks may have some twinges at around 10:30 AM, as well, but unless the news is really drastic, those Wednesday mornings aren’t that consequential for stocks, although times are different right now. Nonetheless, just as when the week started, there really isn’t anything else of consequence that should be able to move markets. Even as they’ve been following oil, there hasn’t been much of anything there either to supply a reason for any of the moves seen. We get rig counts on Fridays, we get oil reserves on Wednesdays, but those just allow traders to make inferences as to what the future holds. Those inferences are usually right for minutes and one week to the next can bring significant differences in the numbers and their interpretations, even as economies tend to move at very slow paces. You wouldn’t know that by those weekly numbers and the often frantic reactions. I’m not expecting to do anything frantic this week with what little time remains. Markets are pointing a little higher this morning and I would gladly accept that and would like to see some of those big losses reversed today and maybe set the stage for something more moderate in terms of a climb higher. Moderate and slow is far more sustainable if you’re watching from below. . . |
