Month: March 2016

Daily Market Update – March 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  GM

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), BBY (3/15 $0.45 Special Dividend), JOY (3/17 $0.01), LVS (3/18 $0.72)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 EDT.

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Daily Market Update – March 17, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday the focus was much more on the FOMC and Chairman Yellen.

The take home message was that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as had been hoped and the world’s economies are even worse.

As a result, the FOMC believes that it will have fewer interest rate increases in 2016 than it had planned.

Somehow, that’s good news.

I understand why it may offer some more time for people to get cheap money to play with, but the increases that the FOMC had in mind weren’t going to leave money more expensive for those borrowing, in any real terms.

Instead, a less than optimistic picture was painted, but traders liked it.

This morning, as it all sank in, stock futures had been all over the place.

They were moderately higher and then equally moderately lower, both bordering on triple digits.

In the meantime, stocks looked as if they might spend another day diverging from oil, which was again moderately higher.

Sooner or later I expected that had to happen, but as long as oil is going higher, I’d have liked to have seen some delay in everyone coming to their senses.

Based on the futures inability to get on a single frame of mind, I thought that today may very well be a day of confusion as various sides try to figure out whether yesterday’s FOMC news was good or bad.

Still, with yesterday’s close, the DJIA was at its highest for 2016, so it’s as if the first 6 weeks of trading never even happened.

It’s as if 2016 hasn’t even happened yet.

Ultimately, it seems that stocks decided to rejoin with oil and yesterday’s FOMC decision and rationale for the decision was still being embraced.

Although the market closed beneath its high for the day, the S&P 500 is now just very slightly in the red for the year as the DJIA is in the black.

Who would have thought?

Based on the number of trades that I’ve made in the first 10 weeks of 2016, you would be excused for believing 2016 had never even started yet.

Hopefully, that will change before the next interest rate hike.

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Daily Market Update – March 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday the focus was much more on the FOMC and Chairman Yellen.

The take home message was that the economy wasn’t growing as fast as had been hoped and the world’s economies are even worse.

As a result, the FOMC believes that it will have fewer interest rate increases in 2016 than it had planned.

Somehow, that’s good news.

I understand why it may offer some more time for people to get cheap money to play with, but the increases that the FOMC had in mind weren’t going to leave money more expensive for those borrowing, in any real terms.

Instead, a less than optimistic picture was painted, but traders liked it.

This morning, as it all sinks in, stock futures had been all over the place.

They were moderately higher and then equally moderately lower, both bordering on triple digits.

In the meantime, stocks looked as if they might spend another day diverging from oil, which was again moderately higher.

Sooner or later I expected that had to happen, but as long as oil is going higher, I’d have liked to have seen some delay in everyone coming to their senses.

Based on the futures inability to get on a single frame of mind, today may very well be a day of confusion as various sides try to figure out whether yesterday’s FOMC news was good or bad.

Still, with yesterday’s close, the DJIA was at its highest for 2016, so it’s as if the first 6 weeks of trading never even happened.

It’s as if 2016 hasn’t even happened yet.

Based on the number of trades that I’ve made in the first 10 weeks of 2016, you would be excused for believing 2016 had never even started yet.

Hopefully, that will change before the next interest rate hike.

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Daily Market Update – March 16, 2016 (Close)

Once again, the previous day did nothing to get 2016 closer to the breakeven point, but at least it didn’t push things further out of reach.

By the looks of the futures this morning, we might yet get to say the same thing, except that at 2 PM there was a scheduled big event and then maybe an even bigger one beginning about 30 minutes later.

Those would be the FOMC Statement release and Janet Yellen’s press conference, respectively.

What the market did yesterday was to dispense with the customary pre-FOMC rally, as stocks again followed oil.

First lower, but then recovering from a triple point loss to end with another visit to the baseline.

Today, it may just be a case of “wait and see” as no one really put themselves out on the line in advance of today’s events.

That was definitely the case as oil was sharply higher early in the morning before stocks opened and stocks decided not to play along.

I certainly didn’t feel like adding any risk with what could be a very big unknown, even as most expect no change in policy.

Sometimes, it’s not the change that makes the difference.

Often it’s the nuance contained in the FOMC Statement and when there also happens to be a press conference, any single word can cause gyrations.

Unfortunately, those surprises that may come are not only unpredictable in their own rights, but the reactions are equally unpredictable and subject to multiple reversals.

Today, as expected, there was no increase in rates, but what may have come as a surprise was the news that there would likely be fewer than originally expected increases for the year.

The market interpreted that positively, without thinking that means that the economy isn’t growing as had been expected.

I look at that as bad news. Maybe at some point so will others.

At the moment, I just hope to be in a somewhat better position to get some rollovers of the 2 positions expiring this week and perhaps adding to the dividend income for the week.

So, that’s not asking for much, but the market hasn’t given too much lately, anyway, leaving expectations low.

Lately Janet Yellen hasn’t sent markets higher, but I expected that she might have been able to help things out today, especially if the net result of the initial reactions to the FOMC Statement were negative. She does have a way of mollifying what could be perceived as bad news.

Instead, she neither helped nor hurt, although maybe on a net basis she helped, except that the DJIA actually closed 2 points lower than when she started speaking, despite having spiked an additional 50 points beyond the close during the beginning of her question and answer session

At least it was nice to think about something other than oil for a change

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Daily Market Update – March 16, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Once again, the previous day did nothing to get 2016 closer to the breakeven point, but at least it didn’t push things further out of reach.

By the looks of the futures this morning, we might yet get to say the same thing, except that at 2 PM there’s a big event and then maybe an even bigger one beginning about 30 minutes later.

Those would be the FOMC Statement release and Janet Yellen’s press conference, respectively.

What the market did yesterday was to dispense with the customary pre-FOMC rally, as stocks again followed oil.

First lower, but then recovering from a triple point loss to end with another visit to the baseline.

Today, it may just be a case of “wait and see” as no one really put themselves out on the line in advance of today’s events.

I certainly didn’t feel like adding any risk with what could be a very big unknown, even as most expect no change in policy.

Sometimes, it’s not the change that makes the difference.

Often it’s the nuance contained in the FOMC Statement and when there also happens to be a press conference, any single word can cause gyrations.

Unfortunately, those surprises that may come are not only unpredictable in their own rights, but the reactions are equally unpredictable and subject to multiple reversals.

At the moment, I just hope to be in a somewhat better position to get some rollovers of the 2 positions expiring this week and perhaps adding to the dividend income for the week.

So, that’s not asking for much, but the market hasn’t given too much lately, anyway, leaving expectations low.

lately Janet Yellen hasn’t sent markets higher, but i expect that she may be able to help things out today, especially if the net result of the initial reactions to the FOMC Statement are negative. She does have a way of mollifying what could be perceived as bad news.

In the event that those initial reactions are ebullient, she may serve us well by putting a little damper on any unrestrained fervor.

At least it might be nice to think about something other than oil for a change

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Daily Market Update – March 15, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday did nothing to get 2016 closer to the breakeven point, but at least it didn’t push things further out of reach.

Today turned out to be no different, as the market recovered from a 100 point decline in the first hour to close the day flat once again.

What was newsworthy yesterday was that with a lack of any news and while oil went lower on the idea that Iran would not be party to any production cuts, stocks didn’t follow oil sharply lower.

But this morning, as had been the case over the past 4 weeks or so, any notion that stocks and oil may be parting ways, has failed to be the case just a day later.

Oil was down sharply this morning as were the stock futures. as oil recovered, so too did stocks, so such much for yesterday being the start of a divergence.

For more than a year, though, the day before an FOMC Statement release has generally been seen a strong move higher. For the most part the same has been the case in the hours following the statement release.

While this morning looked like it may not make a break with oil,  it did look like it may make a break with its FOMC pattern as the futures were down somewhat.

Not really sharply, but close enough to a triple digit move to know that it could easily be possible as the opening bell gets ready to ring.

By the day’s close there was no pre-FOMC rally as we had become accustomed to seeing.

Expectations are not for a rate hike announcement tomorrow, but the FOMC has surprised before, even as most others weren’t able to discern the data that would have led to such a decision.

Most expect that such an action won’t occur until June. The market would likely not respond well to an interest rate increase announcement today, although it probably should greet such news as being good news.

Even if the unthinkable does happen tomorrow and the expected ensues, I think that cooler heads would prevail and see the opportunity to re-enter on what may be the next ground floor.

With a little bit of money in hand, i wouldn’t mind adding some new positions this week, but the uncertainty of the week’s FOMC meeting makes it a little more difficult to justify parting with cash.

I would much rather see some opportunity to do anything with existing uncovered positions or those positions set to expire this week.

There are lots of ways to encourage income streams, but unnecessary risk taking doesn’t feel right as part of the equation at the moment,

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Daily Market Update – March 15, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday did nothing to get 2016 closer to the breakeven point, but at least it didn’t push things further out of reach.

What was newsworthy yesterday was that with a lack of any news and while oil went lower on the idea that Iran would not be party to any production cuts, stocks didn’t follow oil sharply lower.

But this morning, as has been the case over the past 4 weeks or so, any notion that stocks and oil may be parting ways, has failed to be the case just a day later.

Oil is down sharply this morning as are the stock futures.

For more than a year, though, the day before an FOMC Statement release has generally been seen a strong move higher. For the most part the same has been the case in the hours following the statement release.

Thus far, this morning looks like it may not make a break with oil, but it may make a break with its FOMC pattern as the futures are down somewhat.

Not really sharply, but close enough to a triple digit move to know that it could easily be possible as the opening bell gets ready to ring.

Expectations are not for a rate hike announcement tomorrow, but the FOMC has surprised before, even as most others weren’t able to discern the data that would have led to such a decision.

Most expect that such an action won’t occur until June. The market would likely not respond well to an interest rate increase announcement today, although it probably should greet such news as being good news.

Even if the unthinkable does happen today and the expected ensues, I think that cooler heads would prevail and see the opportunity to re-enter on what may be the next ground floor.

With a little bit of money in hand, i wouldn’t mind adding some new positions this week, but the uncertainty of the week’s FOMC meeting makes it a little more difficult to justify parting with cash.

I would much rather see some opportunity to do anything with existing uncovered positions or those positions set to expire this week.

There are lots of ways to encourage income streams, but unnecessary risk taking doesn’t feel right as part of the equation at the moment,

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Daily Market Update – March 14, 2016 (Close)

It’s hard to believe that after such an abysmal start to 2016 that the market is almost close to the breakeven point.

There’s no doubt that the climb has been completely in line with the move higher in oil futures.

No other story has really carried any weight in 2016.

China, interest rates and anything else that may have popped up last year, especially acting to bring markets lower, have just not appeared on the radar screen this year.

What we have had this year have simply been large and basically fundamental free moves in oil in one direction and then the next. That has led to equally large and directionless movement in stocks.

That is, up until about 2 weeks ago when the direction in the price of oil has been mostly higher, despite an occasional dip lower or an intra-day reversal.

This week, though, we may get a little respite from oil as the FOMC Statement is released and there is a Janet Yellen press conference to follow.

Most don’t expect a hike in interest rates at this meeting, but the market doesn’t necessarily need anything tangible to blow things out of proportion.

Simple nuances or slight changes in wording in the statement itself could lead to one reaction and then the more nuanced words during Yellen’s prepared statement and her responses to questions afterward could lead to even more over-reaction.

Lately, the dovish Yellen hasn’t always sounded dovish and she hasn’t been able to give stock markets the same kind of euphoria that she did earlier in her tenure, but you never know what’s in store.

Maybe even a rate hike?

I would just like to have some opportunity to make money this week or to raise money.

I would love to see the market continue higher just to get those opportunities. Actually, it wouldn’t even take the market’s move higher to make me happy. Just some specific stocks, especially if I can get to sell some new calls.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a couple of opportunities to rollover or see assignments, I’d love to supplement whatever income already seems likely with some more.

Greedy? Maybe, but not overly so. All I want is a little bit more at a time.

Today, there wasn’t too much to be happy about, nor too much to regret.

As markets finished flat for the day, there came the realization that stocks failed to follow oil sharply lower today.

Over the past few weeks there have been a number of days in which it looked as if a disassocation between stocks and oil was in the works, but after just a day it was clear that the association still had life to it.

We’ll see what the next few days bring, particularly once the Federal Reserve’s capture of our attention has faded.

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