Daily Market Update – March 15, 2016 (Close)
Yesterday did nothing to get 2016 closer to the breakeven point, but at least it didn’t push things further out of reach.
Today turned out to be no different, as the market recovered from a 100 point decline in the first hour to close the day flat once again.
What was newsworthy yesterday was that with a lack of any news and while oil went lower on the idea that Iran would not be party to any production cuts, stocks didn’t follow oil sharply lower.
But this morning, as had been the case over the past 4 weeks or so, any notion that stocks and oil may be parting ways, has failed to be the case just a day later.
Oil was down sharply this morning as were the stock futures. as oil recovered, so too did stocks, so such much for yesterday being the start of a divergence.
For more than a year, though, the day before an FOMC Statement release has generally been seen a strong move higher. For the most part the same has been the case in the hours following the statement release.
While this morning looked like it may not make a break with oil, it did look like it may make a break with its FOMC pattern as the futures were down somewhat.
Not really sharply, but close enough to a triple digit move to know that it could easily be possible as the opening bell gets ready to ring.
By the day’s close there was no pre-FOMC rally as we had become accustomed to seeing.
Expectations are not for a rate hike announcement tomorrow, but the FOMC has surprised before, even as most others weren’t able to discern the data that would have led to such a decision.
Most expect that such an action won’t occur until June. The market would likely not respond well to an interest rate increase announcement today, although it probably should greet such news as being good news.
Even if the unthinkable does happen tomorrow and the expected ensues, I think that cooler heads would prevail and see the opportunity to re-enter on what may be the next ground floor.
With a little bit of money in hand, i wouldn’t mind adding some new positions this week, but the uncertainty of the week’s FOMC meeting makes it a little more difficult to justify parting with cash.
I would much rather see some opportunity to do anything with existing uncovered positions or those positions set to expire this week.
There are lots of ways to encourage income streams, but unnecessary risk taking doesn’t feel right as part of the equation at the moment,