Daily Market Update – March 25, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 25, 2015  (Close)

Yesterday reverted back to recent form after having spent a couple of hours of the trading day looking as if it would simply be as flat as was the pre-open futures.

Instead it was another triple point move. This one was to the downside and was a continuation of the sell-off that happened on Monday afternoon that saw the DJIA give up its gains in the final 15 minutes of trading.

Today did not revert back to form, because if it had, it would have been an up day. Instead, it was an abysmal day that only got worse as it progressed, with the DJIA off almost 300 points.

This morning looked like it will be another flat open as the futures were doing almost nothing despite some excitement from the impending Kraft Foods deal. The fact that interest rates are still so low would make you think that more deals might be on the horizon, although it may be hard to justify the stock prices at these levels. Even for those companies that are sinking below 200 day moving averages are still pretty expensive for those looking for bargains.

That goes even for someone just looking to pick up 100 shares, although most things did get a little less expensive today.

Still, some increased activity would be welcome and they don’t all have to be blockbuster kind of deals, such as with Kraft Foods. Just look at yesterday’s announcement of a relatively tiny $1 Billion deal that Lexmark was undertaking in buying a company that I’d never heard of, but coincidentally also starts with the letter “K.”

Both of those companies appear to be getting pats on the back this morning, so there may be more, especially as Lexmark hasn’t exactly been the kind of company on the acquisitive prowl over the past few years, but opportunity is opportunity.

The real focus for the rest of the week will still be on Friday’s GDP release, although this morning’s Durable Goods could have potentially given the markets either a reason to celebrate or to fear that the news was a harbinger for impending interest rate hikes.

Instead of suggesting that the manufacturing portion of the economy was humming along those Durable Good numbers threw some cold water on the idea of any real economic expansion brewing.

But despite the absence of good news or the presence of bad news, depending on how you interpret the Durable Goods Report, it had no real impact on today’s trading.

At this point we don’t really know whether the market is going to view good news as good news or whether it’s going to take that paradoxical approach that it often does.

As the Durable Goods figures were released the futures did virtually nothing, befitting a market that may still find itself confused over what it wants to hear.

For the rest of the week I don’t see very much in activity, although it ended up being hard to resist a position in Activision which was going ex-dividend tomorrow. Since it has an annual dividend if it can be assigned quickly that will end up being much better than the 1% yield it offers on a yearly basis.

While I wouldn’t completely exclude the possibility of any other purchases of new positions for the rest of the week, it’s probably not too likely and there are only a handful of contracts that are possible rollover candidates this week that require much attention.

While I was wishing that today would be a very passive and watchful day, just like it was yesterday, that obviously wasn’t meant to be.

Hopefully tomorrow will bring something different as time is running out on this week and the chance to roll anything over.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 25, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 25, 2015  (8:30 AM)

Yesterday reverted back to recent form after having spent a couple of hours of the trading day looking as if it would simply be as flat as was the pre-open futures.

Instead it was another triple point move. This one was to the downside and was a continuation of the sell-off that happened on Monday afternoon that saw the DJIA give up its gains in the final 15 minutes of trading.

This morning looks like it will be another flat open as the futures are doing almost nothing despite some excitement from the impending Kraft Foods deal. The fact that interest rates are still so low would make you think that more deals might be on the horizon, although it may be hard to justify the stock prices at these levels. Even for those companies that are sinking below 200 day moving averages are still pretty expensive for those looking for bargains.

That goes even for someone just looking to pick up 100 shares.

Still, some increased activity would be welcome and they don’t all have to be blockbuster kind of deals, such as with Kraft Foods. Just look at yesterday’s announcement of a relatively tiny $1 Billion deal that Lexmark was undertaking in buying a company that I’d never heard of, but coincidentally also starts with the letter “K.”

Both of those companies appear to be getting pats on the back this morning, so there may be more, especially as Lexmark hasn’t exactly been the kind of company on the acquisitive prowl over the past few years, but opportunity is opportunity.

The real focus for the rest of the week will still be on Friday’s GDP release, although this morning’s Durable Goods could have potentially given the markets either a reason to celebrate or to fear that the news was a harbinger for impending interest rate hikes.

Instead of suggesting that the manufacturing portion of the economy was humming along those Durable Good numbers threw some cold water on the idea of any real economic expansion brewing.

At this point we don’t really know whether the market is going to view good news as good news or whether it’s going to take that paradoxical approach that it often does.

As the Durable Goods figures were released the futures did virtually nothing, befitting a market that may still find itself confused over what it wants to hear.

For the rest of the week I don’t see very much in activity. While I wouldn’t completely exclude the possibility of any other purchases of new positions for the week, it’s probably not too likely and there are only a handful of contracts that are possible rollover candidates this week that require much attention.

As the day gets ready to begin it doesn’t appear as if there will be too many chances to sell calls on uncovered positions, so it may be a very passive and watchful day today, just like it was yesterday.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 24, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 24, 2015  (Close)

Well, at least yesterday came close to being able to put together two consecutive days of gains for the first time in a month.

Up until the last 10 minutes or so it looked as if it would happen.

There was actually some reason to feel optimistic yesterday as the Existing Home Sales were higher and Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer gave the first of his two talks this week and didn’t shy away from plainly stating that rates were going up.

Perhaps had those events happened a week earlier the market may have taken it as a set of signs that it would be appropriate to take a plunge.

Instead, there was both something refreshing about Fischer actually joking about impending rate increases and the market reacting rationally to news that would have sent it into a panic just days ago.

That may be reason enough to have some optimism as the market continues to be able to find higher ground even as so many stocks are being challenged on a 50 day basis, which many consider to be a bearish signal.

While there’s nothing much else scheduled between today and the end of the week, there’s always Friday and Stanley Fischer has another chance to get people nervous now that he’s softened them up with economic humor.

It will be interesting to hear his comments in light of the GDP statistics that will be released that morning, as most everyone will be  focusing on whether the GDP finally begins to show the consumer led expansion that we’ve now been expecting for about 4 months of lower energy prices.

This morning the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2%, which did nothing to excite the pre-opening futures, which like yesterday were trading fairly flat. That was, however, the first increase seen since October 2014, but it actually reflected higher gas prices seen over the past month. The increase was, though, perhaps an indication that the annual inflation rate may reach the Federal Reserve target of 2% or even beyond, which could give some justification for the first interest rate increase.

In its very early response, though, the bond market was taking rates down ever so slightly. As the day wore on those rates went even lower.

So far there hasn’t been any validation of the thesis that consumer spending was going to increase in a meaningful way as energy prices decreased in a meaningful way. Even retailers that had initially started painting a rosy picture stepped back a little when providing earnings guidance over the past month.

Yesterday, though, most of the day was simply one of trading without any reason to go up nor down, although over the previous week the market hasn’t really needed a reason to make a large move, although each of those moves was in some way erased or mostly erased the following day.

Today, after that flat start in the futures the market hugged the flat line until about noon and then just gave up for the day until finally ending with another triple digit loss, with the selling picking up for real in the final 30 minutes again.

With a couple of new positions opened yesterday there still may be some more for the rest of the week, but there’s no real compelling reason to put more at risk when the market continues to be so directionless. Today w
as a good day to just sit and aimlessly watch and wonder.

If that direction does turn higher at any point this week, it would still be nice to see some very strong moves in that direction, even if they don’t have much in the way of staying power. Those are the kind of moves that can make sale of calls on uncovered positions begin to look appealing. Additionally, those large moves, especially if occurring with lots of intra-day price fluctuation sends premiums higher. Lately we’ve had the large moves, but without the intra-day fluctuation, so the volatility has actually been falling and taking premiums along with it.

As with yesterday and again today, there’s not too much reason to rush into any trades and plenty of reason to simply watch and see where the market may head again tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – March 24, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 24, 2015  (9:00 AM)

Well, at least yesterday came close to being able to put together two consecutive days of gains for the first time in a month.

Up until the last 10 minutes or so it looked as if it would happen.

There was actually some reason to feel optimistic yesterday as the Existing Home Sales were higher and Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer gave the first of his two talks this week and didn’t shy away from plainly stating that rates were going up.

Perhaps had those events happened a week earlier the market may have taken it as a set of signs that it would be appropriate to take a plunge.

Instead, there was both something refreshing about Fischer actually joking about impending rate increases and the market reacting rationally to news that would have sent it into a panic just days ago.

That may be reason enough to have some optimism as the market continues to be able to find higher ground even as so many stocks are being challenged on a 50 day basis, which many consider to be a bearish signal.

While there’s nothing much else scheduled between today and the end of the week, there’s always Friday and Stanley Fischer has another chance to get people nervous now that he’s softened them up with economic humor.

It will be interesting to hear his comments in light of the GDP statistics that will be released that morning, as most everyone will be  focusing on whether the GDP finally begins to show the consumer led expansion that we’ve now been expecting for about 4 months of lower energy prices.

This morning the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2%, which did nothing to excite the pre-opening futures, which like yesterday were trading fairly flat. That was, however, the first increase seen since October 2014, but it actually reflected higher gas prices seen over the past month. The increase was, though, perhaps an indication that the annual inflation rate may reach the Federal Reserve target of 2% or even beyond, which could give some justification for the first interest rate increase.

In its very early response, though, the bond market was taking rates down ever so slightly.

So far there hasn’t been any validation of the thesis that consumer spending was going to increase in a meaningful way as energy prices decreased in a meaningful way. Even retailers that had initially started painting a rosy picture stepped back a little when providing earnings guidance over the past month.

Yesterday, though, most of the day was simply one of trading without any reason to go up nor down, although over the previous week the market hasn’t really needed a reason to make a large move, although each of those moves was in some way erased or mostly erased the following day.

With a couple of new positions opened yesterday there still may be some more for the rest of the week, but there’s no real compelling reason to put more at risk when the market continues to be so directionless.

If that direction does turn higher, it would still be nice to see some very strong mo
ves in that direction, even if they don’t have much in the way of staying power. Those are the kind of moves that can make sale of calls on uncovered positions begin to look appealing. Additionally, those large moves, especially if occurring with lots of intra-day price fluctuation sends premiums higher. Lately we’ve had the large moves, but without the intra-day fluctuation, so the volatility has actually been falling and taking premiums along with it.

As with yesterday there’s not too much reason to rush into any trades and plenty of reason to simply watch and see where the market may head for the day.

Dashboard – March 23 – 27, 2015 (Close)

 

  

 

Daily Market Update – March 23, 2015  (Close)

This should be a relatively quiet week on the news front 

I don’t usually look at “Existing Home Sales” very much, but that was one of the factors cited by the FOMC last week as being a reason to delay interest rate hikes, as those sales continue to be disappointing, having been on a downtrend for the past 9 months.

While the weather may still be at play as those figures are reported this morning any uptick leading into Friday’s GDP report and then Stanley Fischer’s scheduled speech could easily get markets fearful again of coming interest rate increases.

As it would turn out those Existing Home Sales were improved and Stanley Fischer spoke today, as well as still being scheduled on Friday and the world didn’t explode.

In fact, the market actually finally was almost able to string two higher days on the DJIA, missing out only in the final 2 minutes of trading. But the market did break that string of alternating triple digit moves.

It still is confusing why everyone is so afraid of the initiation of such increases, as the market has generally done very well during the early stages of such increases.

Unless there are real signs of an economy heating up too fast there shouldn’t be the fears that rates are going to start increasing too often and too quickly. That would definitely stifle stocks as investors would look for alternatives.

The technical indicators after the past 7 or 8 trading sessions point higher even as the market has been unable to even have 2 consecutive days higher.

This morning the market was perfectly flat as we awaited the beginning of trading. Lately, however, with only a single day’s exception, that pre-open trading hasn’t been an indicator of the direction nor the size of the move by the closing bell.

Today it was pretty good as the market traded in a fairly tight range, only showing a little bit of relative weakness in the closing 15 minutes.

What has been especially interesting is that in the time of those previous trading sessions there had also only been a single day in which the trading theme saw a reversal, so it was interesting to see whether the market would continue trading in a state of fugue as the week began.

With a couple of assignments last week and some cash added to the pile I was less reluctant to spend some money to establish new positions. Since there are only 2 positions set to expire this week the greatest likelihood is that I would look for opportunities with contracts also expiring this week, in order to increase the likelihood of being able to recycle money to re-deploy in the following week.

A couple of those opportunities did come along, but I’m still open to some more.

But as the volatility has moved again near its low point for the past year, despite all of those triple digit moves, there’s little attraction for looking at longer time frame contracts, as those premiums are just getting so low. With a smattering of contracts already set to expire for all of the weeks in the April 2015 cycle there’s not too much reason to look for opportunities to populate those at the moment.

Again, as has been the case for quite some time, I would most invite any opportunity to simply conserve cash and generate income through the sale of options on existing uncovered positions. After making those new purchases today I would now especially welcome a repeat of some of last week’s unfounded moves higher.

Last week was a good week for that and that always offers some enhancement to return as it generates cash flow. However, what has been especially frustrating is that the market’s inability to string together meaningful moves forward has resulted in lost opportunities to sell those call options. That’s because any hopes of seeing shares move even higher in anticipation of some sort of rally have generally been dashed, although there have also been some exceptions.

Despite those exceptions, such as with Astra Zeneca and Sinclair Broadcasting, I think that I would still jump at any opportunity at this point to lock in any premiums on moves higher, as more and more stocks are moving higher in isolated ways and unable to hold those levels.

This morning I waited until the Existing Home Sales data was released to see if there was any reason for the markets to forget about their celebration of a continued dovish stance on interest rates. The last time the market responded with relief it only lasted 2 days, so it seemed right to see how long the party would keep going this time.

And if the party does keep going?

I still wouldn’t mind a repeat of last week, with or without new positions to enjoy the ride.

Daily Market Update – March 23, 2015

 

  

 

Daily Market Update – March 23, 2015  (8:45 AM)

This should be a relatively quiet week on the news front Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

I don’t usually look at “Existing Home Sales” very much, but that was one of the factors cited by the FOMC last week as being a reason to delay interest rate hikes, as those sales continue to be disappointing, having been on a downtrend for the past 9 months.

While the weather may still be at play as those figures are reported this morning any uptick leading into Friday’s GDP report and then Stanley Fischer’s scheduled speech could easily get markets fearful again of coming interest rate increases.

It still is confusing why everyone is so afraid of the initiation of such increases, as the market has generally done very well during the early stages of such increases.

Unless there are real signs of an economy heating up too fast there shouldn’t be the fears that rates are going to start increasing too often and too quickly. That would definitely stifle stocks as investors would look for alternatives.

The technical indicators after the past 7 or 8 trading sessions point higher even as the market has been unable to even have 2 consecutive days higher.

This morning the market is perfectly flat as we await the beginning of trading. Lately, however, with only a single day’s exception, that pre-open trading hasn’t been an indicator of the direction nor the size of the move ny the closing bell.

What has been especially interesting is that in that time there has also only been a single day in which the trading theme saw a reversal, so it will be interesting to see whether the market continues trading in a state of fugue

With a couple of assignments last week and some cash added to the pile I’m less reluctant to spend some money to establish new positions. Since there are only 2 positions set to expire this week the greatest likelihood is that I would look for opportunities with contracts also expiring this week, in order to increase the likelihood of being able to recycle money to re-deploy in the following week.

Additionally, as the volatility has moved again near its low point for the past year, despite all of those triple digit moves, there’s little attraction for looking at longer time frame contracts, as those premiums are just getting so low. With a smattering of contracts already set to expire for all of the weeks in the April 2015 cycle there’s not too much reason to look for opportunities to populate those at the moment.

Again, as has been the case for quite some time, I would most invite any opportunity to simply conserve cash and generate income through the sale of options on existing uncovered positions.

Last week was a good week for that and that always offers some enhancement to return as it generates cash flow. However, what has been especially fru
strating is that the market’s inability to string together meaningful moves forward has resulted in lost opportunities to sell those call options. That’s because any hopes of seeing shares move even higher in anticipation of some sort of rally have generally been dashed, although tehre have also been some exceptions.

Despite those exceptions, such as with Astra Zeneca and Sinclair Broadcasting, I think that I would still jump at any opportunity at this point to lock in any premiums on moves higher, as more and more stocks are moving higher in isolated ways and unable to hold those levels.

This morning I will likely wait until at least the Existing Home Sales data is released and see if there is any reason for the markets to forget about their celebration of a continued dovish stance on interest rates. The last time the market responded with relief it only lasted 2 days, so let’s see how long the party will keep going this time.

And if the party does keep going?

I still wouldn’t mind a repeat of last week, with or without new positions to enjoy the ride.

Dashboard – March 23 – 27, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   .It’s a fairly light news week but it does end on Friday with both the GDP release and a speech from Stanley FIscher. The slightest news of a consumer led expanding economy and some hawkish words from Fisher would reignite fears of a June interest rate increase.

TUESDAY:    Yesterday came within minutes of being the first time stringing together 2 consecutive advancing days in a month, but we did break the streak of triple digit moves, as we wait for Friday’s GDP to let us know whether the energy price fueled expansion has gotten underway

WEDNESDAY: Yesterday reverted back to form with another triple digit move after quiet futures trading. This morning markets are again flat before the bell, but that portends nothing as it’s still not clear what, besides interest rates and currency worries will influence markets.

THURSDAY:   The markets are continuing yesterday’s sell-off in the pre-opening futures despite no reason for the negativity. Tomorrow’s GDP may finally give some reason to be bullish or bearish, but the preponderance of economic news should have little reason to fuel bearish sentiment.

FRIDAY: Another week thankfully coming to an end as GDP data may set the tone for next week’s Employment Situation Report, which is released while markets will be closed for Good Friday

 

 

 


 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – March 22, 2015

The past week has to be one to make most people pause and try to understand the basis for what we just experienced.

In a week otherwise devoid of any meaningful news there was a singular event in the middle of the week and then a little bit of follow-up to help clarify that event.

That event was the release of this month’s FOMC Statement and the subsequent clarifying event was the press conference held by its Chair, Janet Yellen.

In its aftermath, I am more confused than ever.

Not so much about where interest rates are headed, nor when, but more about the thought processes that propel markets when expectations are so clearly defined and what our continuing expectations should be.

Most everyone who follows markets knows that the great debate of late has not been whether the FOMC was going to begin the process of raising interest rates, but when they were going to begin that process. Somehow, we believed that the answer to that question was going to come when we learned whether the word “patience” would continue to characterize the FOMC’s timetable with regard to its effort to “normalize the stance of monetary policy.”

Most had taken positions that the first rate increase would come either as early as this June or perhaps as late as September. The continuing use of the word “patience” was perceived as a sign that interest rate increases wouldn’t occur until sometime after June 2015.

So you have to excuse some confusion when the market reversed course by more than 300 points as it learned that the word “patience” was eliminated, but also received news that the FOMC didn’t foresee an interest rate increase before their next meeting in April 2015.

April?

That could mean that an increase by the May meeting was still on the table and the last time I looked, May came before June, especially if you believe a more hawkish approach is warranted.

Presumably, it was the fear of interest rate increases coming as early as June that was a source for recent market weakness.

As I parsed the words I couldn’t understand the way in which the news was initially embraced. While I expected that regardless of the wording outcome the market would find reason to move forward, I certainly didn’t expect the reaction that ensued, especially since the signal was so mixed and really offered nothing to get excited about, nor to fear.

No rate increase likely in April? That’s the best the FOMC could do?

But in a world where even the slightest of interest rate increases is feared, despite the past evidence suggesting that it should be embraced, the very thought of an increase possibly coming before June should have sent buyers heading for the exits.

Yet it was more than good enough, at least for a couple of hours, and actually represented the first in 7 trading sessions where the market reversed course intra-day, having had triple digit moves in opposite directions each and every one of those days.

Now clearly that has to inspire confidence for whatever is to come next.

It’s a good thing that I don’t believe very much in chart analysis, because it would otherwise be very tempting to notice that the previous 7 trading sessions shows a clear pattern of lower highs and higher lows when looking at the net change and an even more compelling series of higher highs and higher lows when looking at the DJIA closing levels.

Yet, at the same time, it has been nearly 4 weeks ever since the DJIA has been able to string together as little as 2 consecutive days of gains.

Perhaps not to coincidentally the last time the market was able to do that was on the occasion of Janet Yellen’s two day mandated congressional testimony during which time she re-iterated a dovish position regarding the initiation of interest rate increases. But barely 2 days later suspicion of her intentions set in as the Vice-Chairman of the FOMC, Stanley Fischer struck a more hawkish tone that just a week later seemed to be validated by the Employment Situation Report.

Despite the fact that there has been no other corroborating evidence to drive the data that the FOMC insists that it values, the market lost its forward momentum from February until Janet Yellen once again took center stage.

Why people just didn’t believe her all along is a mystery, just as it is a mystery that they again chose to believe her.

How long will the trust in her comforting words last this time?

Perhaps Friday’s GDP release, coming on the same day as a scheduled speech by Stanley Fischer will give us some idea of the staying power of the dove when faced with a circling hawk.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or
“PEE” categories.

It was neither a good week to be DuPont (NYSE:DD) nor eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) as both received analyst downgrades and saw their shares fall significantly when compared to the S&P 500 over the previous 7 sessions.

DuPont’s downgrade came amid worries of problems in its agricultural and chemical segments, along with concerns about the kind of currency headwinds that we’re likely to be hearing much more about in the coming weeks as the next earnings season gets ready to begin.

While those are all important issues, certainly important enough to see DuPont’s shares fall nearly 9% relative to the S&P 500 in the past week, there was lots of activist related news that may be setting the stage for a more contentious kind of fight than Nelson Peltz usually gets himself into. However, it is that activist position that the analyst recognized as a risk to his overall negative outlook as Peltz took to the media last week to be both more accommodating in his requests to DuPont, but also to voice his frustrations.

In the meantime the recent drop in share price is similar to other such drops seen in the past year that have been at levels representing higher lows and that have set the stage for climbs to higher highs.

While Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) may be suffering from some of the same issues as DuPont and has the added liability of oil interests in Kuwait, it is at least seemingly at peace with its own activist investors, or at the very least the relations are not overtly adverse at the moment.

Dow Chemical has been very much tied to energy prices these past few months even as its CEO Andrew Liveris has clearly stated that on a net basis the decrease in energy prices is beneficial to Dow Chemical, as it pays more for energy input than it depends on revenue from energy outputs.

Shares are ex-dividend this week and are attractively priced, although as long as energy is under pressure and as long as Liveris’ contention goes ignored, the shares will be under pressure. I currently own shares and Dow Chemical was for a long time a staple in my portfolio, both as a long term holding and as a frequent trading vehicle. At the current price I think a new position could be used as either a longer term holding or a serial trade.

eBay has been absent from my portfolio for a couple of months as I’ve grown too uneasy with it flirting near the $60 level to consider re-purchasing shares. Even the $57.50 level puts me at unease, but a recent downgrade calling into question the value of its PayPal unit in light of increasing competition, most recently from Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) was welcome and did bring shares closer to the upper level at which I had some comfort.

Shares recovered nicely from the initial reaction to the downgrade, but still trailed the S&P 500 by 5% over the past 7 trading sessions.

In the past I have very much liked owning eBay when it was mired in a tight range, yet still delivered appealing option premiums due to the occasional earnings related surprises. The story changed once activism entered the picture and shares started moving beyond the 2 year price range in the belief that PayPal had great value beyond what was already reflected in eBay’s price.

With each passing day, however, the luster of PayPal may be diminishing, even as it still remains an extremely valuable brand and service.

As it sits at the upper end of where I would consider taking a position, I would be very interested in either adding shares and selling calls or selling puts on any further drop in price. If selling puts this is one position that I wouldn’t mind taking assignment on in the event of an adverse price move, but would still look at the possibility of simply rolling over those puts to forward weeks.

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) is increasingly becoming an interesting company. While it certainly has some challenges as it’s chief revenue generating drug goes off patent next year, it has certainly been actively pursuing other lucrative areas, including management of Hepatitis C and cancer therapy, with its planned purchase of Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC).

While shares have recovered somewhat from its recent low following an analyst downgrade, they are still nearly 8% lower YTD, but the company is certainly not standing still. In addition to upside potential, the shares offer attractive option premiums and an upcoming dividend that’s well ahead of that offered by its one time parent.

I’m not much of a video gamer even though I can get easily get sucked in by useless activities of a repetitive nature. My guess is that a combination of lack of skill, lack of attention span and allegiance to pinball have kept me indifferent to much of the last 25 years of home entertainment.

This week, however, GameStop (NYSE:GME) and Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) have my attention.

I was actually happy to see my shares of GameStop get assigned this past week ahead of earnings this week. The timing was good as its generous dividend was captured without having to think about the risk of its upcoming earnings.

GameStop is a company that many have written off for years, pointing toward its paleolithic business model, the challenges of brick and mortar as well as streaming competition and the always large short interest looming over shares.

But somehow it continues to confound everyone.

With shares about 10% higher in March the option market is implying a price move of 7.8% upon earnings release. Meanwhile a 1% ROI may be able to be obtained even if shares fall almost 10% following the news. As with eBay, GameStop is a company that I wouldn’t mind owning if puts were at risk of being assigned. However, I’d be much more willing to sell puts if there was some price weakness heading into earnings. Otherwise, I would wait until after earnings and again consider the sale of puts in the event of a large price drop.

The last time I purchased Activision was after its own large price drop following earnings this past February when the company announced record earnings but provided weak forward guidance.

Shares, however, recovered quickly as Activision announced a large share buyback and increased dividend. Since then the shares have been trading in a fairly tight range and they are ex-dividend this week.

That dividend, however, is an annual one and on that basis is paltry. However, if shares end up being a short term holding the dividend yield can be very attractive, especially taken together with the option premiums available when selling calls.

Finally, LuLuLemon (NASDAQ:LULU) reports earnings this week and appears to be back in favor with shoppers as the company appears to be sufficiently distanced from its founder. Time may have been the best of all remedies to their particular problem as shares have shown great recovery.

The option market is implying an earnings related move of 8% and a 1% ROI may be able to be obtained when selling puts at a strike level 10.1% below Friday’s closing price. In the past, LuLuLemon has had some very significant earnings moves, with 15-20% moves not being out of the norm.

However, unlike a number of other stocks mentioned this week, LuLuLemon had nicely out-performed the S&P 500 over the past 7 trading sessions. For that reason I would be inclined to wait until after earnings are released and would consider either a sale of puts or a buy/write in the event of a large price drop.

Traditional Stocks: AbbVie, DuPont, eBay

Momentum Stocks: none

Double Dip Dividend: Activision (3/26), Dow Chemical (3/27)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: GameStop (3/26 PM), LuLuLemon (3/26 AM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Week in Review – March 16 – 20, 2015

 

 

Option to Profit Week in
Review –  March 16 – 20,  2015
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
1 / 1 5 2 2  /  0 5  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 16 – 20,   2015

This was a difficult to describe week.

Each and every day, followed the trend that began with the last 2 days of the past week and closed at a triple digit change in the direction opposite that of the previous day’s close.

That’s something you don’t see very often.

There was only a single new position opened for the week. It beat the adjusted S&P 500 by 1.2% but trailed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.0% in a week that the market again followed only a single story, but lots of interpretations of the meaning of that story.

The new position was 1.6% higher for the week, while the unadjusted S&P 500 finished 2.7% higher and the adjusted S&P 500 was only 0.4% higher, as the sole purchase for the week was on Thursday, effectively undoing much of the gain subsequently seen on Friday to close the week.

Positions closed in 2015 continue to out-perform the market. They are an average of 5.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.9% higher. That 3.8% difference represents a 202.3% performance differential.

 

All eyes were focused on the FOMC this week and the market really didn’t know what it was looking for, nor what it really wanted.

Sometimes, just like a small child, who is more interested in just receiving something, there wasn’t much attempt to discern whether what was received was good, bad or indifferent.

It’s not very clear that the market got anything resembling clarity to the question of when the FOMC will begin to raise rates, but it did act as if all was now crystal clear.

The market itself seems to be telling a different story and it’s far from one that’s crystal clear.

This is what the past few days of trading looked like at the closing bell:

This is sort of ridiculous.

What makes it ridiculous is that there’s been basically no volatility during the course of these past few days. The market, with the exception of a single one of those days has ignored the pre-open futures trading and just headed in a single direction and had traded with almost no intra-day variation.

The exception to that lack of intra-day variation was this past Wednesday when the FOMC Statement was released.

With all of this faux volatility, there actually hasn’t been much real volatility, even as
the uncertainty has seemed to be increasing. In fcat, the volatility is about at the last low point, which was at the beginning of December 2014, even though it may not really feel like that.

This was a difficult week to want to make any commitments and was a perfect example of how the slightest change in your timing could have made such a significant difference in outcomes.

Looking forward to the next week there’s really no additional information that’s available to push in one direction or another.

For those who look at charts, looking at the net change in the closing level of the DJIA over the past 7 trading sessions shows lower highs and higher lows, so there will surely be someone who will say that the prevailing pattern is for a breakout in prices to the upside.

I have a hard time embracing that, but the reality is that for more than 2 years that really has been the case, regardless of what the charts have looked like.

I was happy to see positions go along for the ride this past week and was especially happy to have a chance to find some new cover for some of the previously uncovered positions. Although there were a couple of rollovers and a couple of assignments, there were too many expired positions to end the March 2015 option cycle.

With some additional cash available next week being added to the pile and with only 2 positions set to expire next week, the greatest likelihood is that any new positions would primarily look at next week’s expiration, rather than in forward weeks. With a smattering of positions already sprinkled through the individual weeks of the April 2015 option cycle and with premiums again following volatility lower, there’s little incentive to look at further diversifying positions by time of expiration.

While I wouldn‘t mind letting go of some of the cash reserve in order to pick up some new positions next week, my preference would be to have another week such as this past one. I’d prefer to generate the income from existing positions, where possible and put as little additional capital at risk until there is really some clarity.

That should begin fairly soon as earnings season is about to begin anew in just a couple of weeks as we may finally get some information regarding the impact of falling energy prices as well as the impact of the strengthening US Dollar.

 



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   MET

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycleLXK, MRO

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  AZN (4/24), GDX ($21 4/10), GDX ($20 4/2), HAL (4/10), KO (4/10)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls AssignedGME, SBGI

Calls Expired:  BAC, BP, DOW, EMC, GDX

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsLVS (3/19 $0.65)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: DOW (3/27 $0.42)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, CHK, CLF, COH, FAST, FCX, GDX, HAL, HFC, .INTC, JCP, JOY, LVS, MAT, MCP, MOS,  NEM, RIG, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Week in Review – March 16 – 20, 2015

 

 

Option to Profit Week in
Review –  March 16 – 20,  2015
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
1 / 1 5 2 2  /  0 5  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 16 – 20,   2015

This was a difficult to describe week.

Each and every day, followed the trend that began with the last 2 days of the past week and closed at a triple digit change in the direction opposite that of the previous day’s close.

That’s something you don’t see very often.

There was only a single new position opened for the week. It beat the adjusted S&P 500 by 1.2% but trailed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.0% in a week that the market again followed only a single story, but lots of interpretations of the meaning of that story.

The new position was 1.6% higher for the week, while the unadjusted S&P 500 finished 2.7% higher and the adjusted S&P 500 was only 0.4% higher, as the sole purchase for the week was on Thursday, effectively undoing much of the gain subsequently seen on Friday to close the week.

Positions closed in 2015 continue to out-perform the market. They are an average of 5.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.9% higher. That 3.8% difference represents a 202.3% performance differential.

 

All eyes were focused on the FOMC this week and the market really didn’t know what it was looking for, nor what it really wanted.

Sometimes, just like a small child, who is more interested in just receiving something, there wasn’t much attempt to discern whether what was received was good, bad or indifferent.

It’s not very clear that the market got anything resembling clarity to the question of when the FOMC will begin to raise rates, but it did act as if all was now crystal clear.

The market itself seems to be telling a different story and it’s far from one that’s crystal clear.

This is what the past few days of trading looked like at the closing bell:

This is sort of ridiculous.

What makes it ridiculous is that there’s been basically no volatility during the course of these past few days. The market, with the exception of a single one of those days has ignored the pre-open futures trading and just headed in a single direction and had traded with almost no intra-day variation.

The exception to that lack of intra-day variation was this past Wednesday when the FOMC Statement was released.

With all of this faux volatility, there actually hasn’t been much real volatility, even as
the uncertainty has seemed to be increasing. In fcat, the volatility is about at the last low point, which was at the beginning of December 2014, even though it may not really feel like that.

This was a difficult week to want to make any commitments and was a perfect example of how the slightest change in your timing could have made such a significant difference in outcomes.

Looking forward to the next week there’s really no additional information that’s available to push in one direction or another.

For those who look at charts, looking at the net change in the closing level of the DJIA over the past 7 trading sessions shows lower highs and higher lows, so there will surely be someone who will say that the prevailing pattern is for a breakout in prices to the upside.

I have a hard time embracing that, but the reality is that for more than 2 years that really has been the case, regardless of what the charts have looked like.

I was happy to see positions go along for the ride this past week and was especially happy to have a chance to find some new cover for some of the previously uncovered positions. Although there were a couple of rollovers and a couple of assignments, there were too many expired positions to end the March 2015 option cycle.

With some additional cash available next week being added to the pile and with only 2 positions set to expire next week, the greatest likelihood is that any new positions would primarily look at next week’s expiration, rather than in forward weeks. With a smattering of positions already sprinkled through the individual weeks of the April 2015 option cycle and with premiums again following volatility lower, there’s little incentive to look at further diversifying positions by time of expiration.

While I wouldn‘t mind letting go of some of the cash reserve in order to pick up some new positions next week, my preference would be to have another week such as this past one. I’d prefer to generate the income from existing positions, where possible and put as little additional capital at risk until there is really some clarity.

That should begin fairly soon as earnings season is about to begin anew in just a couple of weeks as we may finally get some information regarding the impact of falling energy prices as well as the impact of the strengthening US Dollar.

 



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   MET

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycleLXK, MRO

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  AZN (4/24), GDX ($21 4/10), GDX ($20 4/2), HAL (4/10), KO (4/10)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls AssignedGME, SBGI

Calls Expired:  BAC, BP, DOW, EMC, GDX

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsLVS (3/19 $0.65)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: DOW (3/27 $0.42)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, CHK, CLF, COH, FAST, FCX, GDX, HAL, HFC, .INTC, JCP, JOY, LVS, MAT, MCP, MOS,  NEM, RIG, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.