Daily Market Update – October 26, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

Today., the morning’s futures appear to want to be a clone of yesterday, which was a day characterized by no great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic guidance from DuPont, but there was absolutely no follow through.

After the market’s close, Apple showed that its primary money maker was slowing down, but its share price was pretty resilient, despite the lack of any really good news.

We still have so many earnings reports to come in the next 2 weeks that there’s still time for a happy picture to be painted ahead of December’s FOMC meeting, but the early round hasn’t been very impressive.

Still, that could change where it really counts in about 2 weeks as retailers begin their reports.

Those retailers are, by and large, at pretty low prices and they could use a boost. But. the real importance attached to their earnings will be the guidance they provide, especially if they can finally see the silver lining ahead.

I’m not as sanguine about that as I was a week ago, though.

Friday’s GDP will tell us something, but its really up to the retailers to let us know not only what has happened in the last quarter, but what they see ahead.

That may go a long way toward creating confidence that whatever the FOMC may do will be the correct path to take.

Last year, it wasn’t and I’m certain no one wants to repeat that, nor the ensuing sell off to start 2016.

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Daily Market Update – October 25, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 25, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was a good day for the markets, today not so much.

Despite a fairly sharp decline in oil prices, the market managed to hold onto its gains and was perhaps buoyed by some spreading merger and buyout news.

This morning earnings continued and the first thing that struck me was hearing the early morning release from DuPont, which actually offered some improved guidance.

That’s only one company, but the company matters, as does the sector it’s in.

But not today, because pretty much every other company reporting earnings either disappointed or failed to give cheery guidanve.

DuPont is a building block kind of company. When it sees good things ahead that means that its end users are likely to see good things ahead, especially when DuPont’s revenues are anticipated to rise without currency or pricing being factored into the equation.

The morning’s futures weren’t reflecting much in the way of new optimism, but at least it wasn’t squandering yesterday’s small move forward. 

It took the day’s market to do that as most of the previous day’s gains were lost.

With lots of earnings still to come this week and next and those to then be followed by retailer earnings, there is still plenty of reason for the FOMC to begin feeling justified in inching closer and closer to a December interest rate increase, despite today’s downer of a day.

I think that if investors get to see that there is actually tangible improvement in the economy, particularly if this Friday’s GDP shows an active consumer at work, it may look at that interest rate increase the way it should be interpreted.

That would mean new enthusiasm for stocks, rather than running away for fear of cheap money being taken away.

With one new position opened yesterday and 2 expiring this week, along with 4 ex-dividend positions, I don’t have much need for adding any additional income generating positions.

Yesterday’s trade was a little on the unusual side, in that it was an in the money put sale.

That, of course, lead to a bigger than usual premium and it was done on the weakness in shares.

When selling puts, there’s nothing like doing so on the downslide, as long as there’s not too much more downslide to come. Some of that downside did come today, though, but there are still 3 days in which to recover.

In the case of Marathon Oil, even if there is some more to come, there has been enough volatility in its shares to believe that there will be a chance to live another day and see the downslide reversed.

However, earnings are next week and so I may like the idea of being able to extricate myself, although expectations probably still remain low for the sector as a whole.

I didn’t expect, otherwise to be doing too much today, other than hoping for an isolated chance or two to sell some calls, so I wasn’t totally disappointed, although i did try to get some trades made.

Getting those trades made doesn’t happen frequently enough, but slowly those uncovered positions are finding some of their own income generating opportunities.

Patience has helped, but more may be needed.

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Daily Market Update – October 25, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Yesterday was a good day for the markets.

Despite a fairly sharp decline in oil prices, the market managed to hold onto its gains and was perhaps buoyed by some spreading merger and buyout news.

This morning earnings continue and the first thing that struck me was hearing the early morning release from DuPont, which actually offered some improved guidance.

That’s only one company, but the company matters, as does the sector it’s in.

DuPont is a building block kind of company. When it sees good things ahead that means that its end users are likely to see good things ahead, especially when DuPont’s revenues are anticipated to rise without currency or pricing being factored into the equation.

The morning’s futures weren’t reflecting much in the way of new optimism, but at least it wasn’t squandering yesterday’s small move forward.

With lots of earnings still to come this week and next and those to then be followed by retailer earnings, there is still plenty of reason for the FOMC to begin feeling justified in inching closer and closer to a December interest rate increase.

I think that if investors get to see that there is actually tangible improvement in the economy, particularly if this Friday’s GDP shows an active consumer at work, it may look at that interest rate increase the way it should be interpreted.

That would mean new enthusiasm for stocks, rather than running away for fear of cheap money being taken away.

With one new position opened yesterday and 2 expiring this week, along with 4 ex-dividend positions, I don’t have much need for adding any additional income generating positions.

yesterday’s trade was a little on the unusual side, in that it was an in the money put sale.

That, of course, lead to a bigger than usual premium and it was done on the weakness in shares.

When selling puts, there’s nothing like doing so on the downslide, as long as there’s not too much more downslide to come.

In the case of Marathon Oil, even if there is some more to come, there has been enough volatility in its shares to believe that there will be a chance to live another day and see the downslide reversed.

However, earnings are next week and so I may like the idea of being able to extricate myself, although expectations probably still remain low for the sector as a whole.

I don’t expect, otherwise to be doing too much today, other than hoping for an isolated chance or two to sell some calls.

That doesn’t happen frequently enough, but slowly those uncovered positions are finding some of their own income generating opportunities.

Patience has helped.

.


Daily market Update – October 24, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (Close)


This has the potential to be a very big week.

It already had that potential before, considering all of the earnings reports that will be flowing in and the week ending GDP report.

What was added to the equation was the blockbuster $85.4 Billion deal and some smaller ones that were announced over the weekend.

What that means is that buyers may believe that there are still some reasonably priced items out there, especially as the window for cheap money may be closing.

Also, if the GDP comes in better than expected, especially if it also includes some upward revisions, the seal on the FOMC deal to raise interest rates may become validated.

What that means for investors is unclear, but as afraid as they are of increased interest rates, they are probably even more fearful of the game being played and the uncertainty hanging over their heads.

The big news for the week may continue to be that huge buyout and all of the speculation regarding regulatory issues and whether it all makes sense, with an eye cast back to the last time Time Warner was in play.

That didn’t work out too well, but I think this time is very, very different.

Different corporate cultures, different times and the knowledge that the future for both partners is here right now and not just speculative dream, as was the case in 2000 or so.

With only one position set to expire this week, 4 ex-dividend positions and some cash from the expiration of short puts, I didn’t know how eager I’d be this week to part with some cash, but it didn’t take long to find out that I was pretty eager to go right back to an old friend.

While I thought that I might take a dip with  AT&T, as it became more appealing after declining  just a little more in price, instead it was once again Marathon Oil, ahead of next week’s earnings always seems appealing.

It should be a busy week on the news front and for my part, i wouldn’t mind some more opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if I end up not adding any new positions to the mix.

This week, that’s really my preference, especially after having seen a number of positions expire with the October 2016 contracts coming to their end.

Throw a few Federal reserve people into the mix this week and it may be an interesting one that I think takes the market higher.

Today was a good start in that direction, even as oil faltered.

.


Daily Market Update – October 24, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)


This has the potential to be a very big week.

It already had that potential before, considering all of the earnings reports that will be flowing in and the week ending GDP report.

What was added to the equation was the blockbuster $85.4 Billion deal and some smaller ones that were announced over the weekend.

What that means is that buyers may believe that there are still some reasonably priced items out there, especially as the window for cheap money may be closing.

Also, if the GDP comes in better than expected, especially if it also includes some upward revisions, the seal on the FOMC deal to raise interest rates may become validated.

What that means for investors is unclear, but as afraid as they are of increased interest rates, they are probably even more fearful of the game being played and the uncertainty hanging over their heads.

The big news for the week may continue to be that huge buyout and all of the speculation regarding regulatory issues and whether it all makes sense, with an eye cast back to the last time Time Warner was in play.

That didn’t work out too well, but I think this time is very, very different.

Different corporate cultures, different times and the knowledge that the future for both partners is here right now and not just speculative dream, as was the case in 2000 or so.

With only one position set to expire this week, 4 ex-dividend positions and some cash from the expiration of short puts, I don’t know how eager I’ll be this week to part with some cash.

By the same token, AT&T, despite spending $85.4, may be appealing if it declines just a little more in price and Marathon Oil, ahead of next week’s earnings always seems appealing.

It should be a busy week on the news front and for my part, i wouldn’t mind some more opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if I end up not adding any new positions to the mix.

This week, that’s really my preference, especially after having seen a number of positions expire with the October 2016 contracts coming to their end.

Throw a few Federal reserve people into the mix this week and it may be an interesting one that I think t.hakes the market higher

.


Dashboard – October 24 – 28, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   The week looks as if it may get off to a positive start coming on the heels of lots of buyout and merger activity over the weekend, ahead of lots of earnings reports and a GDP release

TUESDAY:   A decent day yesterday and not obvious weakness in the cards today, as some equally decent guidance comes this morning from the chemical sector. That could be one of the signs that the FOMC will find its justification for moving forward

WEDNESDAY: With futures lower this morning, October could be the worst month since January, yet we’re on;y about 2% from all time highs with lots of time for something explosive to come.

THURSDAY:  Some more mergers hitting the wires this morning as earnings will be front and center before and after the closing bells today

FRIDAY:. As we await the GDP release, we also await to see which side of the breakeven line the market will land, as earnings reports this morning and late yesterday afternoon are doing little to move markets


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – October 23, 2016

This past week was the first full week of earnings for this most recent earnings season and you could be excused for wondering just how to interpret the data coming in.

The financial sector had fared well, but if you were looking for a pattern of revenue and earnings beats, or even looking for a shared sense of optimism going forward from a more diverse group of companies, you’ve been disappointed to date.

For the most part, this past week was one of mixed messages and the market really rewarded the messages that it wanted to hear and really punished when the messages didn’t hit the right notes.

With so much attention being placed on the expectation that the FOMC would have sufficient data to warrant an interest rate increase in December, you might have thought that companies would start painting a slightly more optimistic image of what awaited their businesses, perhaps based upon a building trend from the past quarter.

That optimistic guidance has yet to prevail even as some have been reporting better than expected revenues.

But no one should be surprised with the mixed messages that the market hasn’t been able to interpret and then use as a foothold to move in a sustained direction.

The mixed messages coming from those reporting just follows the wonderful example of streaming mixed messages that have been coming at us all year long from members of the Federal Reserve.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

Week In Review – October 17 – 21, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


October 17 –  21, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 2 2 0   /   1 4   /   0 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 17 – 21, 2016

This was another one of those weeks in which I had no idea what the week was all about, but I still think that something is brewing.

I said that last week, too.

The difference was that for me it was easy to know whether to be pleased or displeased this week.

More or less.

For the most part, I was pleased.

I was pleased to have made an opening position trade and pleased to be able to turn that back into cash by the end of the week.

That one new position ended the week 1.8% higher, which was 1.4% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500.

The S&P 500 itself was up 0.4% for the week.

I was also pleased with all of the trading that I was able to get done, as well as how existing positions were able to finish 0.9% higher than the S&P 500 for the week.

What I wasn’t too happy about were the positions that expired and now need to have new calls sold on them.

A week ago I though most if not all would either get assigned or be rolled over.

So much for that.

With another assignment this week, there are now 24 closed positions. They will forever be forever overshadowed by MolyCorp, when I look at their performance on the year, but as a group without MolyCorp, those positions have done very well versus the S&P 500. There just are too few of them for 2016.

There really wasn’t much news this week.

What there was happened to be mixed and there was also a tendency to overblow both the good and the bad when it came to earnings.

For my part, i was a happy camper.

There were rollovers, new short positions opened, an assignment and a dividend.

The cash flow was better this week and the account wasn’t drained.

Next week is another big earnings week and I’m hoping to do more of the same as this week.

I don’t mind opening any new positions and I wouldn’t mind selling more calls.

However, with 4 ex-dividend positions on the week, the same urgency isn’t there to generate income as it may have been on other weeks that had no positions available for rollover.

So I may sit back next week more than was the case this week.

However, I thoroughly enjoyed this week, which hasn’t been the case very often, even as 2016 is shaping up to have been a very good year.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MRO puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  IP (11/20)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: BAC, UAL

Put contracts expired: MRO $14

Put contracts rolled over: MRO $15

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  BMY, CY, HPQ, WY

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    FAST (10/21 $0.30)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – October 21, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: MRO $15 (puts)

Expirations:   BMY, CY, HPQ, MRO $14 (puts), WY

The following were ex-dividend this week:    FAST (10/21 $0.30) 

The following are ex-dividend next week:  F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – October 20. 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (Close)


With a lot of earnings already out early this morning that painted a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market, despite that small loss today.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning’s sale of so,e calls on an uncovered position helped even more.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may continue to come tomorrow.and after.

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