Month: August 2014

Daily Market Update – August 19, 2014 (9:15 AM)

Well, yesterday was a surprise, but it does seem to go along with the recent pattern that the market basically hates getting news and loves existing in either ignorance or denial.

The reaction last Friday to news or at least what was passed off as news contrasted sharply to the reaction yesterday to nothing.

It’s hard to understand how the market could be so fragile as to flee on any bad geo-political news, but then to flock back when there is no news. It doesn’t even take good news, it just takes no news.

That’s especially confusing when you realize that the story is far from being done and any day, especially any Friday the way the pattern seems to be going, can bring a new series of investor rattling bits of news.

While every one still believes that the market looks out into the future by a 6 month period, that’s increasingly hard to accept, given the way daily events or non-events rock the markets and can change the entire tone in an instant.

After seeing yesterday’s gain it’s hard to not want to be part of the revelry and today looks like it may add to those gains.

The one bit of good news coming from the market before the opening was Home Depot.

It reported earnings the way any company would like to see itself report. It beat on every single metric and it guided even stronger for the next quarter.

If looking for good economic news, or at least any news that doesn’t have the word “geo-political” attached to it, the news from Home Depot  seems to be just the right kind. Of course, it will be put into better context tomorrow when Lowes reports. Then, at least will know whether Home Depot’s good fortunes have come at the expense of its competition or whether the pie just got larger.

Ultimately, good news from both of those companies has to be good news for the economy as a whole. While there may be various theories about what strength at Home Depot and Lowes means for the home builders, which are often thought of as the real measures of the economy,those theories are just that and not necessarily having much in the way of validity.

Too often mutual exclusivity is believed to be a rule in so many aspects in life. Home Depot can thrive even as home builders do, as well. SO I think that if the pie is expanding that is more likely to be good news for all.

While the market’s early morning gain may extend yesterday’s rally I plan to still practice the “prove it to me” approach and may again be content with little new purchase activity, but not very content if unable to find opportunity to sell new calls on existing positions.

On a very positive note, after last week’s inability to keep up with the market, even with yesterday 1% gain existing positions kept pace.

Sometimes the tide is good, but I’d much rather swim free and see the market tread water for  a bit.

Daily Market Update – August 18, 2014 (Close)

The world was reasonably quiet over the weekend despite some suggestion that events might begin to ratchet higher in the Ukraine – Russia conflict.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe that the quiet could easily dissolve, that’s tomorrow’s problem and not one for today, at least as far as the S&P futures seem to be concerned.

There is an FOMC statement on the calendar this week, but as many parts of the country return to school next week, this week is an understandably extraordinarily quiet one, otherwise.

In fact, there is absolutely nothing on the calendar for Friday, which is extremely unusual other than on a holiday. But even federal bureaucrats and traders have families. Or their spending the weekend in Jackson Hole.

With it becoming increasingly clear that the market is very nervous and very willing to give up some gains I’m not terribly anxious to add too many new positions this week. What complicates the decision, though, is that it’s also equally clear that the market really does want to go higher. Every attempt at a pullback is shallow and brief.

Today’s eventual climb higher, a nearly 1% climb in the DJIA, brings the market within easy striking range of its all time high.

And remember all of that talk about how volatility had climbed 30% in a week? Well, it’s back to its lows.

The fact that each pullback has been met with the market setting a series of new high shows just how emboldened investors and traders have become, gaining confidence with each battle.

Although by now you would think that we would all be getting use to this Teflon kind of market, it still remains odd and uncharted kind of territory, despite all of the experience over the past two years. Somewhere, maybe deep in the recesses of our awareness is the thought that there might be unforeseen land mines out there.

That may be the case, but I’m less concerned about the unseen than I am about the disregarded.

Last week did see a few assignments, but fewer than I would have expected, thanks to the sudden decline when word was released of an attack on some kind of Russian convoy. nearly 60 hours later, in this age of 24/7 news and video documentation at everyone’s fingertips, it seems odd that there hasn’t been much in the way of confirmation of that attack.

So no one really knows what may be the next logical step, neither in response, nor as part of a natural follow-up to the original action, since the very existence of that original action is becoming more and more suspect.

None of this really inspires too much confidence, but as opposed to wanting to see the week get off to a slow or weak start, as I usually do, I would be happy to see some strength and the pos
sibility of being pulled along for the ride, especially since I missed it last week.

Despite having had a few weeks of really strong out-performance in prior weeks, I tend to focus on things the way most people do. I tend to ask “what have you done for me, lately.”

With last week being one of relative under-performance that’s where my focus begins this week, so I was hoping for some strength to begin the week and some opportunity to simply sell calls on positions now laying fallow.

That didn’t really happen, as premiums are generally very low at the moment and there may be reason to wait for some capital gains from the shares as the amount of income or price protection is relatively low and makes it hard to justify selling away the rights for some of those capital gains.

What would have been especially nice was some indication that the early strength in the market had some staying power. The best indication of all is that it did.

In the past few months these kind of early indications had a way of quickly running their course, so there wasn’t too much reason to chase anything until there’s a sense that it was for real, this time around.

And it was.

But even then, there wasn’t much reason to chase. Despite making a couple of purchases today, ultimately, I expect this week to be relatively slow as it comes to any more of those new positions being opened.

The cash generation has to come from somewhere, though.

Part of it will come from losers such as Target and Transocean, which both go ex-dividend this week and have reasonably generous dividends, but dividends are really illusory, as far as net assets go. It is cash, but it comes at a tangible price.

With a number of positions already set for expiration this week there will hopefully be some combination of rollover and assignment opportunities to create real income and re-supply cash reserves, respectively, while waiting for the right opportunities to spend cash reserves down.

At the moment that aspect of things looks very good, but as last week demonstrated it’s probably not a good idea to take too much for granted.

Daily Market Update – August 18, 2014 (8:00 AM)

The world was reasonably quiet over the weekend despite some suggestion that events might begin to ratchet higher in the Ukraine – Russia conflict.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe that the quiet could easily dissolve, that’s tomorrow’s problem and not one for today, at least as far as the S&P futures seem to be concerned.

There is an FOMC statement on the calendar this week, but as many parts of the country return to school next week, this week is an understandably extraordinarily quiet one, otherwise.

In fact, there is absolutely nothing on the calendar for Friday, which is extremely unusual other than on a holiday. But even federal bureaucrats and traders have families.

With it becoming increasingly clear that the market is very nervous and very willing to give up some gains I’m not terribly anxious to add too many new positions this week. What complicates the decision, though, is that it’s also equally clear that the market really does want to go higher. Every attempt at a pullback is shallow and brief.

The fact that each pullback has been met with the market setting a series of new high shows just how emboldened investors and traders have become, gaining confidence with each battle.

Although by now you would think that we would all be getting use to this teflon kind of market, it still remains odd and uncharted kind of territory, despite all of the experience over the past two years. Somewhere, maybe deep in the recesses of our awareness is the thought that there might be unforeseen land mines out there.

That may be the case, but I’m less concerned about the unseen than I am about the disregarded.

Last week did see a few assignments, but fewer than I would have expected, thanks to the sudden decline when word was released of an attack on some kind of Russian convoy. nearly 60 hours later, in this age of 24/7 news and video documentation at everyone’s fingertips, it seems odd that there hasn’t been much in the way of confirmation of that attack.

So no one really knows what may be the next logical step, neither in response, nor as part of a natural follow-up to the original action, since the very existence of that original action is becoming more and more suspect.

None of this really inspires too much confidence, but as opposed to wanting to see the week get off to a slow or weak start, as I usually do, I would be happy to see some strength and the possibility of being pulled along for the ride, especially since I missed it last week.

Despite having had a few weeks of really strong out-performance in prior weeks, I tend to focus on things the way most people do. I tend to ask “what have you done for me, lately.”

With last
week being one of relative under-performance that’s where my focus begins this week, so I would like to see some strength to begin the week and some opportunity to simply sell calls on positions now laying fallow.

What would be especially nice is some indication that the early strength in the market has some staying power.

In the past few months these kind of early indications had a way of quickly running their course, so there’s not too much reason to chase anything until there’s a sense that it is for real, this time.

Ultimately, I expect this week to be relatively slow as it comes to new positions being opened.

The cash generation has to come from somewhere, though.

Part of it will come from losers such as Target and Transocean, which both go ex-dividend this week and have reasonably generous dividends, but dividends are really illusory, as far as net assets go. It is cash, but it comes at a tangible price.

With a number of positions already set for expiration this week there will hopefully be some combination of rollover and assignment opportunities to create real income and re-supply cash reserves, respectively, while waiting for the right opportunities to spend cash reserves down.

MONDAY:  A quiet weekend may get the market off to a good start for the week, with not much more than an FOMC statement to contend with for the rest of the week.

TUESDAY:     Maybe Home Depot should show everyone else how earnings are supposed to be done, beating on every metric. That will help the DJIA more than the S&P 500 but a healthy Home Depot is generally good news all around, unless it comes at the expense of its competition. We’ll know that tomorrow

WEDNESDAY:  Market looks to start of trading quietly today ahead of what should be a non-consequential FOMC statement release this afternoon.

THURSDAY:    With the market already up 1.6% for the week it couldn’t be blamed for taking a break today before tomorrow’s festivities from Jackson Hole. Still with money fleeing precious metals this morning and interest rates so low, where else are you going to go? At least for today.

FRIDAY:  All eyes on Jackson Hole and it’s Friday, so no surprises if any surprise comes out of the Ukraine – Russia conflict







Daily Market Update – August 15, 2014 (9:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

Today’s possible outcomes include:

Assignments:  CY

Rollovers: BBY, JPM, MET, TMUS, WFM

Expirations: BMY, CHK, EBAY, FAST, HFC

As in some previous weeks some rollovers may be deferred due to cost and instead waiting for any opportunity in the coming week

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made before 3:30 PM EDT.With time running out to make this week more busy and pull a rabbit out of a hat as was done in each of the past three weeks, Wal-Mart didn’t help things, at all.

Daily Market Update – August 14, 2014 (Close)

With time running out to make this week more busy and pull a rabbit out of a hat as was done in each of the past three weeks, Wal-Mart didn’t help things, at all.

As it turned out, it didn’t really hurt either, but it definately didn’t help to push things along even further for a good cause.

At the level of Macys, whatever level of the shopping demographic that represents, the activity hasn’t been great and it got punished yesterday, even as its CEO, Terry Lundgren, is still referred to as the best retailer in American.

At the level of Wal-Mart things weren’t much better and the bottom line was only aided by reduced costs and not because of increased revenues. Disturbingly, they don’t envision any improvement in the coming quarter and they have now had a string of disappointing quarters.

So while we wait for other retailers to report, perhaps to see if those discretionary dollars have shifted elsewhere, there isn’t much else to do or much else to move this market, other than overseas events.

As what can only be considered a contra-indicator, as past assurances have been less than reliable predictors of future events, came word this morning that Russia is seeking to pursue its “humanitarian” agenda in Ukraine and was hoping to avoid bloodshed.

That can’t be good. In fact, if Google had a “Putin to English” translation tool, it may have interpreted his comment as saying “the only way to minimize bloodshed is through bloodshed,” which does make sense, although the idea is fairly chilling and if it becomes a reality would also send a chill into the market.

On top of that comes word that Europe is really slowing down. Not only did we learn last week that Italy is in recession, but this morning comes news of Germany’s woes, as its GDP shrunk in the past quarter and that’s before considering the impact of any reduced trading activity with Russia.

So as far as my hopes go for today to be the day that the rabbit appears and pops out of that hat, I wasn’t counting on it. I would have taken it, but I wasn’t counting on it.

After a few weeks of really nicely out-performing the S&P 500 with existing positions, this week, so far, isn’t keeping up, although that may change if some of the rollover income can be added to the mix, but the impetus for the move higher isn’t looking as if its going to be there.

Certainly there’s no news to propel it forward, but at some point I’m going to learn to never be surprised when the unexpected is what happens, since that so often seems to be the case.

At the moment there are some positions that may be assignment candidates or perhaps rollover candidates, as long as the market doesn’t throw a tantrum in the next 6.5 trading hours.

For now, that’s the focus as I let the dog search for that rabbit that we both want him to catch before it doesn’t matter any more

Daily Market Update – August 14, 2014 (9:30 AM)

With time running out to make this week more busy and pull a rabbit out of a hat as was done in each of the past three weeks, Wal-Mart didn’t help things, at all.

At the level of Macys, whatever level of the shopping demographic that represents, the activity hasn’t been great and it got punished yesterday, even as its CEO, Terry Lundgren, is still referred to as the best retailer in American.

At the level of Wal-Mart things weren’t much better and the bottom line was only aided by reduced costs and not because of increased revenues. Disturbingly, they don’t envision any improvement in the coming quarter.

So while we wait for other retailers to report, perhaps to see if those discretionary dollars have shifted elsewhere, there isn’t much else to do or much else to move this market, other than overseas events.

As what can only be considered a contra-indicator, as past assurances have been less than reliable predictors of future events, came word this morning that Russia is seeking to pursue its “humanitarian” agenda in Ukraine and was hoping to avoid bloodshed.

That can’t be good.

On top of that comes word that Europe is really slowing down. Not only did we learn last week that Italy is in recession, but this morning comes news of Germany’s woes, as its GDP shrunk in the past quarter and that’s before considering the impact of any reduced trading activity with Russia.

So as far as my hopes go for today to be the day that the rabbit appears and pops out of that hat, I’m not counting on it.

After a few weeks of really nicely out-performing the S&P 500 with existing positions, this week, so far, isn’t keeping up, although that may change if some of the rollover income can be added to the mix, but the impetus for the move higher isn’t looking as if its going to be there.

Certainly there’s no news to propel it forward, but at some point I’m going to learn to never be surprised when the unexpected is what happens, since that so often seems to be the case.

At the moment there are some positions that may be assignment candidates or perhaps rollover candidates, as long as the market doesn’t throw a tantrum in the next 13 trading hours.

For now, that’s the focus as I let the dog search for that rabbit that we both want him to catch.

Daily Market Update – August 13, 2014 (Close)

This morning was just another day in a week that has no business having any surprises, as there is essentially no meaningful economic news to be released.  If the world stays relatively quiet for the next couple of days there’s then really no reason to see much of anything happen in the market.

So far, that has been the theme and this morning doesn’t appear to be much different, but for no reason, certainly not spurred on by robust earnings, the market hovered near a 100 point gain for much of the day.

With some large retailers reporting earnings this week, starting with Macys this morning, it will be interesting to see whether or not the consumer is returning to their old ways of discretionary spending.

The expectation would be that as employment numbers move higher and that as people start erasing some debt, you would start seeing a return to the retailer, although I’m still having a really hard time wrapping my mind around Citibank’s belief that the retailer most likely to benefit from an improving back to school sale season would be Williams Sonoma.

Most of the kids I know still have lots of pink sea salt slab left over from last year, so I don’t see them flocking to get more.

On the more mundane retail side the initial news from Macys was discouraging if the thesis was that people were in a better position to spend more of their newly earned salaries and would actually spend that money..

The way the usual stream of events works is that increased employment leads to increased spending which leads to both increased pricing and increased production to take advantage of that increased pricing. In turn that leads to even more need for workers, which leads to wage inflation, which leads to increasing interest rates.

For anyone watching the game, it is the anticipation and fear of increased interest rates which is thought to welcome the end to the market’s climb higher.

So in the  bad news is good news kind of world that we’ve lived in for much of the past two years, any measure of lower revenues or decreased growth rates at retailers would be seen as a positive sign, insofar as it would be seen as delaying any increase in interest rates.

Tell that to Macys this morning.

As the morning does get started I’m hopeful that maybe the pattern of the last few weeks will repeat itself, although despite today’s gains there was little ability to take advantage of the move higher.

During those previous weeks there wasn’t much action until the latter part of the week, as the markets tended to show some positive turnaround and offered rollover opportunities to catch up for all of the income not generated earlier in the week due to the absence of many new position purchases.

I would never tire of the repetitive nature of that kind of surprise, but it is difficult to see the catalysts fo
r it again this week, but I do suppose that’s the essential component of any surprise.

At the mid-week point I thought that I was done with any new purchases for the week, but with nothing else really going on, it was hard to resist another pullback in eBay, marking the 22nd purchase of shares in about 20 months,

That new purchase notwithstanding, I would very much like to see some assignments to help start the new monthly option cycle off to a good start. If not that, then at least some positive movement to allow positions to be rolled over.

The early morning indication did have us moving in the right direction, but as most everyone should have learned by now, there’s usually no good reason to get overly confident until it’s all over for the week.