Category: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls closed and nearly 18 hours before all the votes were expected to be counted, the mood was pretty optimistic that departure wasn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that was the position of things this morning and that optimism never gave up.

In fact, the market traded in a narrow range, albeit nicely higher, until the final hour.

That’s when the market decided to add on even more, with still about an hour until the polls were actually closed.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday, especially as a follow-up to today.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a guideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, while I was expecting that it might be another day of watching things, there was an opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position, although it was for 3 months ahead.

After seeing what the market ended up doing on the rumor, tomorrow we may end up seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today was “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls close and nearly 18 hours before all the votes are expected to be counted, the mood is pretty optimistic that departure isn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that’s the position of things this morning.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a ugideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, it may be yet another day of watching things and seeing what the rumor ends up doing and then seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today is “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.

Daily Market Update – June 22, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a day when Janet Yelln basically put markets to sleep.

Today they just stayed asleep as it was very much a repeat of went on yesterday.

At that same time, just as Yellen was saying nothing, after having shown confidence about a “Remain” vote in England, suddenly there was again some concern that an exit might still be a possibility.

Such is the world of polling during what is expected to be a close election.

This morning began as Janet Yellen was to again appear before Congress and we were to be faced with the final polls before the real thing tomorrow.

Maybe, as expected, that’s why  the futures were flat this morning and ended the day ambivalently.

After the vote actually happens there could be some kind of move, presumably higher if England elects to remain in the European Union and then much lower if England votes to exit.

The degree in the difference of the movement could be related to the belief that remaining in the European Union has already been discounted and leaving, which was recently expected to be the outcome, might now be considered as a surprise.

Amazing how quickly things change.

As was the case yesterday, I expect to be on the sidelines today, still hopeful of rollover or assignment opportunities.

Since both of the 2 expiring positions are energy related, I’m also hopeful for some continued strength in oil, and at the same time hopeful that the broader market continues to follow the path of oil, even as the correlation is appropriately weakening.

I didn’t know how closely I’d be listening to Yellen’s closing session this morning and as it worked out, I barely listened at all.

That’s a change, as I used to be glued to the screen when Greenspan, Bernanke and even the Yellen of a month or more ago ever spoke.

But lately, the complete hedging strategy makes it frustrating to even listen.

At least we may have tomorrow to look forward to,

After that, I’m not certain what really comes next, unless there is some blow-out number or revision in GDP or the Employment Situation Report that could set things up for an unexpected outcome at the July FOMC meeting.

That’s not too likely, so it may just be a quiet summer, at least as far as news is concerned.

Those event kind of vacuums in a sideways moving market could lead to their own big surprises, though.

Daily Market Update – June 22, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a day when Janet Yelln basically put markets to sleep.

At the same time, however, after having shown confidence about a “Remain” vote in England, suddenly there was again some concern that an exit might still be a possibility.

Such is the world of polling during what is expected to be a close election.

This morning begins as Janet Yellen is to again appear before congress and we will be faced with the final polls before the real thing.

Maybe, as expected, that’s why  the futures are flat this morning.

After the vote actually happens there could be some kind of move, presumably higher if England elects to remain in the European Union and then much lower if England votes to exit.

The degree in the difference of the movement could be related to the belief that remaining in the European Union has already been discounted and leaving, which was recently expected to be the outcome, might now be considered as a surprise.

Amazing how quickly things change.

As was the case yesterday, I expect to be on the sidelines today, still hopeful of rollover or assignment opportunities.

Since both of the 2 expiring positions are energy related, I’m also hopeful for some continued strength in oil, and at the same time hopeful that the broader market continues to follow the path of oil, even as the correlation is appropriately weakening.

I don’t know how closely I’ll be listening to Yellen’s closing session this morning.

That’s a change, as I used to be glued to the screen when Greenspan, Bernanke and even the Yellen of a month or more ago ever spoke.

But lately, the complete hedging strategy makes it frustrating to even listen.

At least we may have tomorrow to look forward to,

After that, I’m not certain what really comes next, unless there is some blow-out number or revision in GDP or the Employment Situation Report that could set things up for an unexpected outcome at the July FOMC meeting.

That’s not too likely, so it may just be a quiet summer, at least as far as news is concerned.

Those event kind of vacuums in a sideways moving market could lead to their own big surprises, though.

Daily Market Update – June 21, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a day when almost everything came together in a positive way, including rising oil prices not putting downward pressure on stocks.

Basically, it was a kind of fantasy land and people were gladly buying, even though about 50% of the earlier gains in the US were lost and even at their peak they didn’t match gains in European markets.

The rest of the week has lots of talk, a big vote and not too much else.

Janet Yellen gives 2 days of mandatory congressional testimony and Stanley Fischer, he co-Chairman, who has been oddly quiet of late, also speaks.

Of course, the real big event is likely to be the vote on whether Great Britain should leave the European Union.

Based on recent polling, there seems to be a sudden shift against leaving and markets were finding reason to cheer.

Today they had reason to be circumspect as more polls hit the fan.

For our part, Janet Yellen said nothing today.

As yesterday’s reaction drove volatility lower, I hope that the reasons to cheer continue, as I don’t mind seeing my net asset value play some catch up, as oil and commodities make up a small bit of their immense lost ground.

I did make an opening trade yesterday and that may be it for the week.

That position goes ex-dividend early next week and I wouldn’t mind losing it to early assignment and [pocketing the entire month’s worth of premium for only 6 days of holding.

That would be nice, but trying to predict a week out is as useless as trying to predict today.

Ahead of Janet Yellen’s first day in front of Congress, the futures are again pointing higher, as there appears to be no one really thinking that the good news will stop, even as there’s really no good news.

What the market has been reacting to is a continued pause in interest rates and status quo in the European Union.

I suppose the absence of bad news is good news, although the continued pause in interest rates may reflect some actual bad news.

Following some real hedging inspired spin by Janet Yellen her past 2 appearances and again today, it will be interesting to see how she is questioned  tomorrow.

It can’t be easy to say nothing, but it must be even harder to play both sides of the room and try to end up balancing things out.

I hope that there continues to be some strength only so that I can see asset value climb and maybe get a chance to sell some new cover on positions adding nothing to my personal wealth.

Otherwise, I’m just tuned in and am prepared for a personally passive week.

Daily Market Update – June 21, 2016 (8:00 AM)

Yesterday was a day when almost everything came together in a positive way, including rising oil prices not putting downward pressure on stocks.

Basically, it was a kind of fantasy land and people were gladly buying, even though about 50% of the earlier gains in the US were lost and even at their peak they didn’t match gains in European markets.

The rest of the week has lots of talk, a big vote and not too much else.

Janet Yellen gives 2 days of mandatory congressional testimony and Stanley Fischer, he co-Chairman, who has been oddly quiet of late, also speaks.

Of course, the real big event is likely to be the vote on whether Great Britain should leave the European Union.

Based on recent polling, there seems to be a sudden shift against leaving and markets are finding reason to cheer.

Hopefully, even as that drives volatility lower, I hope that the reasons to cheer continue, as I don’t mind seeing my net asset value play some catch up, as oil and commodities make up a small bit of their immense lost ground.

I did make an opening trade yesterday and that may be it for the week.

That position goes ex-dividend early next week and I wouldn’t mind losing it to early assignment and [pocketing the entire month’s worth of premium for only 6 days of holding.

That would be nice, but trying to predict a week out is as useless as trying to predict today.

Ahead of Janet Yellen’s first day in front of Congress, the futures are again pointing higher, as there appears to be no one really thinking that the good news will stop, even as there’s really no good news.

What the market has been reacting to is a continued pause in interest rates and status quo in the European Union.

I suppose the absence of bad news is good news, although the continued pause in interest rates may reflect some actual bad news.

Following some real hedging inspired spin by Janet Yellen her past 2 appearances, it will be interesting to see how she is questioned today and tomorrow.

It can’t be easy to say nothing, but it must be even harder to play both sides of the room and try to end up balancing things out.

I hope that there continues to be some strength only so that I can see asset value climb and maybe get a chance to sell some new cover on positions adding nothing to my personal wealth.

Otherwise, I’m just tuned in and am prepared for a personally passive week.

Daily Market Update – June 20, 2016 (Close)

What a difference a poll makes.

Mid week of just a few days ago the numbers seemed to be increasing on the “exit” side of the vote. With the increasing certainty that a British withdrawal from the European Union was going to be the case, there was the usual disagreement about what that would mean and then how long it would take for anything to really happen.

As they were all debating those issues, London’s bookies were still leaning fairly strongly in the other direction.

As the week came to its close the sentiment was reportedly shifting, perhaps due to the tragic shooting of a member of Parliament in a country where shootings are exceedingly rare.

This morning, with just days to go the polls were catching up with the bookies and markets all over the world wee voting with their local currencies and buying stocks.

To me it seemed odd that so soon after being against Scotland’s withdrawal from Great Britain, there would even be discussion about withdrawal from the European Union. You would think that the reasons voiced against Scotland’s proposed move would hold fro Britain’s proposed move.

This morning all of the world’s market’s were much higher. Our own, as the futures were getting closer to the opening bell is actually the laggard, even as it was up by more than 1%.

Even as the market finished nearly 50% off from its intra-day highs, it was better than some of the alternatives.

I’m not one to buy stocks on a Monday when the market has such a climb, so my hope today was that the tide carries many along with it and perhaps offers some opportunities to sell calls on existing and uncovered positions.

Instead, I did get carried along, but while no opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions came to be, there was one opportunity that seemed too good to pass up.

That was upon seeing the sharp decline in shares of Cypress Semiconductor after it announced the issuance of a convertible offering.

So often those initial reactions are so, so overdone. With its dividend coming up next week and earnings not until the August 2016 option cycle, I wouldn’t mind shares being assigned early, but can wait out the month, as well.

For one, I wouldn’t mind the first week of summer continuing the general pattern of 2016, even if that means no more days with the promise of broad big gains, such as today.

That hasn’t resulted in very much trading for me, but at least it has allowed some catch-up after the commodity and energy related losses in 2015.

With summer getting underway and perhaps both interest rates and “Brexit” being put to rest for a little while, I’d like to see some seasonal strength in energy prices drag the market higher, as they’ve been doing through most of 2016.

Daily Market Update – June 20, 2016 (9:00 AM)

What a difference a poll makes.

Mid week of just a few days ago the numbers seemed to be increasing on the “exit” side of the vote. With the increasing certainty that a British withdrawal from the European Union was going to be the case, there was the usual disagreement about what that would mean and then how long it would take for anything to really happen.

As they were all debating those issues, London’s bookies were still leaning fairly strongly in the other direction.

As the week came to its close the sentiment was reportedly shifting, perhaps due to the tragic shooting of a member of Parliament in a country where shootings are exceedingly rare.

This morning, with just days to go the polls are catching up with the bookies and markets all over the world are voting with their local currencies and buying stocks.

To me it seemed odd that so soon after being against Scotland’s withdrawal from Great Britian, there would even be discussion about withdrawal from the European Union. You would think that the reasons voiced against Scotland’s proposed move would hold fro Britain’s proposed move.

This morning all of the world’s market’s are much higher. Our own, as the futures are getting closer to the opening bell is actually the laggard, even as it is up by more than 1%.

I’m not one to buy stocks on a Monday when the market has such a climb, so my hope is that the tide carries many along with it and perhaps offers some opportunities to sell calls on existing and uncovered positions.

For one, I wouldn’t mind the first week of summer continuing the general pattern of 2016.

That hasn’t resulted in very much trading for me, but at least it has allowed some catch-up after the commodity and energy related losses in 2015.

With summer getting underway and perhaps both interest rates and “Brexit” being put to rest for a little while, I’d like to see some seasonal strength in energy prices drag the market higher, as they’ve been doing through most of 2016.

Daily Market Update – June 17, 2016 (7:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday:

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:  MRO

Expirations:  DOW, HPQ, UAL

The following were ex-dividend this week:  M (6/13 $0.38), HPQ (6/13 $0.12), BBBY (6/14 $0.12)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  LVS (6/20 $0.72), JOY (6/20 $0.01)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 16, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was in sharp contrast to the way the previous day came to its close.

Today was in sharp contrast to itself.

Yesterday, immediately after Janet Yellen’s press conference concluded, the market sold off what modest gains it had made and ended the day lower.

While she spoke, the market pretty much treaded water. It had rallied upon the release of the FOMC Statement, but then really didn’t know what to make of the increasingly dovish tone adopted by Yellen and it just traded in a narrow range through the prepared text and the question and answer period.

But when it all ended came the realization that if the economy wasn’t good enough to support even a 0.25% interest rate increase, maybe it’s not good enough to be a place to park your money.

If your job was to record events, the uptick and the downturn were very easily identifiable as were their causes.

Today, the change, from a decidedly negative open to a close just off of its decideldly positive highs wasn’t as easy to pinpoint as to its catalyst.

This morning’s futures were just modestly weaker as overseas markets had a rough session and oil is again falling.

Using those as guides, we were looking to open on the negative, but still faring far better in comparison to others around the world.

When the end came, that distinction to what was going on elsewhere was cemented and gave a little bit of hope for me as far as tomorrow’s monthly ending option cycle goes.

My aspirations are still meek, though.

I would just like to rollover a position or 2 or see an assignment or two.

With a number of losing sessions having been strung together before today’s surprising gain, those aspirations are getting a little more difficult, but as the market’s recent weakness has driven volatility higher, there may at least be some opportunity to get some relatively larger premiums and look at longer term expiration dates to lock in those premiums while awaiting what is hopefully coming.

Hopefully, tomorrow will see it fit to add a little more to today’s gains and make July a little easier to swallow.

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