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Daily Market Update – June 22, 2016 (7:30 AM) Yesterday was a day when Janet Yelln basically put markets to sleep. At the same time, however, after having shown confidence about a “Remain” vote in England, suddenly there was again some concern that an exit might still be a possibility. Such is the world of polling during what is expected to be a close election. This morning begins as Janet Yellen is to again appear before congress and we will be faced with the final polls before the real thing. Maybe, as expected, that’s why the futures are flat this morning. After the vote actually happens there could be some kind of move, presumably higher if England elects to remain in the European Union and then much lower if England votes to exit. The degree in the difference of the movement could be related to the belief that remaining in the European Union has already been discounted and leaving, which was recently expected to be the outcome, might now be considered as a surprise. Amazing how quickly things change. As was the case yesterday, I expect to be on the sidelines today, still hopeful of rollover or assignment opportunities. Since both of the 2 expiring positions are energy related, I’m also hopeful for some continued strength in oil, and at the same time hopeful that the broader market continues to follow the path of oil, even as the correlation is appropriately weakening. I don’t know how closely I’ll be listening to Yellen’s closing session this morning. That’s a change, as I used to be glued to the screen when Greenspan, Bernanke and even the Yellen of a month or more ago ever spoke. But lately, the complete hedging strategy makes it frustrating to even listen. At least we may have tomorrow to look forward to, After that, I’m not certain what really comes next, unless there is some blow-out number or revision in GDP or the Employment Situation Report that could set things up for an unexpected outcome at the July FOMC meeting. That’s not too likely, so it may just be a quiet summer, at least as far as news is concerned. Those event kind of vacuums in a sideways moving market could lead to their own big surprises, though. |
