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Daily Market Update – November 30, 2016 (8:00 AM) This week not too much seems to be happening, although the futures are pointing mildly higher in the morning. That’s happening as oil is surging, following a few days of sharp declines. The backdrop to all of that is today’s OPEC meeting, as there is a volley of thought about whether OPEC will be able to come to any kind of agreement that won’t find its various members cheating. This morning, the belief is that OPEC will find a way to at least announce a production cut and energy prices are very sharply higher. I think that it’s a good sign that the stock market futures aren’t following oil higher as they would have done just weeks ago. It’s also a good sign that the stock market isn’t heading in the other direction as a response. The reality is that whatever cuts OPEC implements that may result in an increase in end user price will quickly be met by non-OPEC member nations, such as the United States. With a couple of new purchases this week and a rare DOH trade, my sights are now set on expiration Friday, which could still be a big mover, as our expectations are for good news from the Employment Situation Report. From that perspective, all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting 2 weeks from today, with an expectation of a small interest rate increase. Short of some huge surprise, there shouldn’t be much interest rate fear baked into pricing, so there’s not too much reason to expect any large moves in the next 2 weeks, although, this could be a “react on the news” sort of thing, even as it is so widely expected. I’m fine with just sitting back and watching net asset value grow and taking whatever trade opportunities might come along, even if jumping the gun on rollovers. . |
