Author: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – May 12, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday the market lost 217 of the 222 points it gained the previous day.

I don’t think that the losses by some of the nation’s largest retailers yesterday had any kind of similar offsets the previous day and it’s pretty unclear when those may start getting better.

This morning the early futures are pointing higher, but there isn’t too much reason for any conviction, as they seem to be tied again to oil.

Yesterday, that tie broke, as the overwhelmingly bad news from the retail sector just trumped ebverything else.

There may be more of that to come as more of the retailers are still ahead over the next 2 weeks, but it is hard to imagine that some of them will go much lower, after being taken down by the big wave caused by Macy’s.

I have just a single position that expires this week and after a rocky start it’s fairly well in the money.

However, as I mentioned yesterday, I might be interested in rolling that over, possibly even to s higher strike, if the premiums allow, particularry as there is also a small dividend next week.

Otherwise, it will likely be another quiet day.

If the past year or so is any indication, these sharp losses, as were seen across the board in retail yesterday, will take much longer to recover, than has been the case in the past.

I don’t think I’m going anywhere, although I haven’t checked with my actuary, so I’m prepared to wait.

And wait.

Daily Market Update – May 11, 2016 (Close)

While Europe opened yesterday much higher and our own market ended the day right on its highs, with a 222 point gain on the DJIA, it was still oil that led the way there.

Oil was much higher yesterday and the market had some follow up to its relative strength on Monday, when it didn’t succumb to the sharp turnaround that sent oil lower.

There was really no substantive news, otherwise.

This morning the futures were mildly lower, as was oil, but that was all at risk change as retail earnings for the major national retailers really get underway today.

And change it did. In a really big way.

Expectations have kept going lower and that sector has been hit very hard in the past week on some bad numbers from two retailers whose fortunes had been going in opposite directions for quite some time.

Today the rumors really became reality, as Macy’s got it all going in the wrong direction.

Most believe that if Macy’s isn’t able to make a go of things, most other retailers aren’t going to be able to do much better in an increasingly competitive environment that only seems to benefit Amazon.

The pall cast by Macy’s today had a really wide reach.

I was expecting to be an onlooker today, as I didn’t expect to spend very much, if any money.

With only a single position set to expire, I may still be interested in seeing if that position could be sustained with a rollover, rather than letting it get assigned.

With a really high premium due to the overall volatility in the oil sector, it may be much easier to try and roll that position over and take the chances on a continued wild ride, while attempting to keep collecting an enriched premium.

It also happens to be the case that Marathon Oil, the single position in question, is ex-dividend next week.

Even though that dividend has been reduced, it still amounts to an additional $0.05 on an initial investment of less than $12, so that alone may be worthwhile.

Plus, it also gets me to do something and there haven’t been many of those opportunities in 2016.

Hopefully next week, as the May 2016 option cycle comes to an end, there will be some more of those opportunities as we head toward the second half of the year.

Daily Market Update – May 11, 2016 (7:30 AM)

While Europe opened yesterday much higher and our own market ended the day right on its highs, with a 222 point gain on the DJIA, it was still oil that led the way there.

Oil was much higher yesterday and the market had some follow up to its relative strength on Monday, when it didn’t succumb to the sharp turnaround that sent oil lower.

There was really no substantive news, otherwise.

This morning the futures are mildly lower, as is oil, but that could change as retail earnings for the major national retailers really get underway today.

Expectations keep going lower and that sector has been hit very hard in the past week on some bad numbers from two retailers whose fortunes had been going in opposite directions for quite some time.

It will be interesting to see how Macy’s gets things going, but if Macy’s isn’t able to make a go of things, the general feeling is that most other retailers aren’t going to be able to do much better in an increasingly competitive environment that only seems to benefit Amazon.

I’m probably going to be an onlooker today, as I don’t expect to spend very much, if any money.

With only a single position set to expire, i may be interested in seeing if that position could be sustained with a rollover, rather than letting it get assigned.

With a really high premium due to the overall volatility in the oil sector, it may be much easier to try and roll that position over and take the chances on a continued wild ride, while attempting to keep collecting an enriched premium.

It also happens to be the case that marathon Oil, the single position in question, is ex-dividend next week.

Even though that dividend has been reduced, it still amounts to an additional $0.05 on an initial investment of less than $12, so that alone may be worthwhile.

Plus, it also gets me to do something and there haven’t been many of those opportunities in 2016.

Hopefully next week, as the May 2016 option cycle comes to an end, there will be some more of those opportunities as we head toward the second half of the year.

Daily Market Update – May 10, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was one of those days that the market was pretty undecided about which direction to take, but to its credit it didn’t follow oil in its course reversal.

Futures had started strongly yesterday, but were eroding even as oil was doing well.

When oil strongly reversed course, the expectation might have been that stocks would have followed, but they didn’t.

This morning’s futures had both oil and stocks heading in the same direction, with the DJIA futures in triple digit gain territory.

It stayed that way all through the day, never looking back and actually finishing just a few points away freom its high for the day.

This time oil stayed healthy all day and so did stocks, as they followed up on Europe’s strong day.

But that still leaves tomorrow, Thursday and Friday.

With some preliminary retail data last week and some early earnings already reported this week, it looks as if retailers may not have much in the way of good news and those may dominate the news for the next couple of days.

While we’ve gotten used to a year’s worth of disappointments from The Gap, hearing the same from The Limited caught just about everybody by surprise.

This week and next the major national retailers report earnings and what is likely to be key is what kind of optimism or pessimism they’re going to express for the rest of 2016.

The expectations are already low, but there isn’t likely to be any reward for trying to lengthen out the period of low expectations.

So far, this earnings season has punished companies that may have been lowered expectations, but still cast a negative tone on their guidance.

With a single new purchase yesterday, I’m still open to the possibility of more this week, but am still looking forward to seeing the end of the May 2016 option cycle and having a chance to move forward.

With so few weekly options in hand and more of them with monthly or beyond expirations, the trading has slowed down so much. For some of those positions I was just happy to get any kind of opportunity to sell a contract and I would still take some more of those opportunities while trying to wait out some precipitous declines.

With the market pointing nicely higher this morning, I would have gladly given up some opportunity to add new positions in exchange for being able to sell some calls on uncovered positions, or at least get the chance to either roll over the single expiring position this week.

Those are just my own lowered expectations, but maybe tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – May 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was one of those days that the market was pretty undecided about which direction to take, but to its credit it didn’t follow oil in its course reversal.

Futures had started strongly yesterday, but were eroding even as oil was doing well.

When oil strongly reversed course, the expectation might have been that stocks would have followed, but they didn’t.

This morning’s futures have both oil and stocks heading in the same direction, with the DJIA futures in triple digit gain territory.

With some preliminary retail data last week and some early earnings already reported this week, it looks as if retailers may not have much in the way of good news.

While we’ve gotten used to a year’s worth of disappointments from The Gap, hearing the same from The Limited caught just about everybody by surprise.

This week and next the major national retailers report earnings and what is likely to be key is what kind of optimism or pessimism they’re going to express for the rest of 2016.

The expectations are already low, but there isn’t likely to be any reward for trying to lengthen out the period of low expectations.

So far, this earnings season has punished companies that may have been lowered expectations, but still cast a negative tone on their guidance.

With a single new purchase yesterday, I’m still open to the possibility of more this week, but am still looking forward to seeing the end of the May 2016 option cycle and having a chance to move forward.

With so few weekly options in hand and more of them with monthly or beyond expirations, the trading has slowed down so much. For some of those positions I was just happy to get any kind of opportunity to sell a contract and I would still take some more of those opportunities while trying to wait out some precipitous declines.

With the market pointing nicely higher this morning, i would gladly give up some opportunity to add new positions in exchange for being able to sell some calls on uncovered positions, or at least get the chance to either roll over the single expiring position this week.

Those are just my own lowered expectations.

Daily Market Update – May 9, 2016 (Close)

There really isn’t too much in the way of economic news this week, but some of the important components of the GDP will be releasing their earnings reports this week and next.

With GDP estimated to be composed nearly 70% of consumer spending, it may be a big deal when the major national retailers begin to report their earnings.

Last week’s monthly sales data from The Limited cast a pall on retailers and many are talking about rising inventories and big sales as the winter was coming to its close.

With expectations already fairly low, it seems that people are looking for further disappointment.

The one thing that we have seen this earnings season is that when those lowered expectations aren’t met or when continued weak guidance is given, there isn’t a lot of forgiveness offered.

In the meantime, the futures trading in oil was higher, but stocks were seeing their early gains erode as the opening bell was approaching. 

In a very positive note, even as the DJIA fell by 35 points and the S&P 500 actually added a point, they both did so while oil was completely turning around from its morning trading to see it close the day much, much lower.

But stocks didn’t follow.

With disappointing employment numbers and increasing oil prices, it’s hard to see where the good news is going to come from or where the FOMC is going to draw its data to warrant their acting on another interest rate increase.

With absolutely no trades last week, I at least had some dividends to fall back upon.

That’s not the case this week, so I was anxious to make some trades once the session got underway and, as expected, I went after volatility and liquidity, trying to make up for lack of quantity of trading.

At the moment, I would just like this monthly option cycle to come to an end, as I do have some expiring positions next week and that may give an opportunity to at least do something to generate some income., even as that stock took some punishment before the day was over.

Daily Market Update – May 9, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There really isn’t too much in the way of economic news this week, but some of the important components of the GDP will be releasing their earnings reports this week and next.

With GDP estimated to be composed nearly 70% of consumer spending, it may be a big deal when the major national retailers begin to report their earnings.

Last week’s monthly sales data from The Limited cast a pall on retailers and many are talking about rising inventories and gig sales as the winter was coming to its close.

With expectations already fairly low, it seems that people are looking for further disappointment.

The one thing that we have seen this earnings season is that when those lowered expectations aren’t met or when continued weak guidance is given, there isn’t a lot of forgiveness offered.

In the meantime, the futures trading in oil was higher, but stocks were seeing their early gains erode as the opening bell was approaching.

With disappointing employment numbers and increasing oil prices, it’s hard to see where the good news is going to come from or where the FOMC is going to draw its data to warrant their acting on another interest rate increase.

With absolutely no trades last week, I at least had some dividends to fall back upon.

That’s not the case this week, so I may be anxious to make some trades once the session gets underway and I’m likely going to go after volatility and liquidity, trying to make up for lack of quantity.

At the moment, I would just like this monthly option cycle to come to an end, as I do have some expiring positions next week and that may give an opportunity to at least do something to generate some income.

Right now I don’t ask for much, but any kind of a trade would be very welcome.