Author: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – June 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

It’s generally considered a good sign when there’s buying going into the close of a session.

That’s especially the case if the session itself was a negative one.

Buying into the close of a negative session reflects the confidence that nothing is going to happen overnight in worldwide markets to make the buyer look stupid the following morning.

There was some considerable buying heading into the close of trading on Monday and those who did ended up not feeling any more stupid and more importantly not feeling any more poor the next day.

There was also buying going into the close of yesterday’s session, but that kind of buying may have been different than that seen on Monday.

Yesterday the market was higher all day and the final rush of purchases may have been less an expression of confidence, but more an expression of fear.

The old “fear of missing out.”

Few people want to get shut out from participation in a rally and often buying begets more buying, just as selling can beget more selling.

This morning, however, it appears as if yesterday’s late buying has some legs as the futures are again pointing to a triple digit gain, although it may be far more tentative than was the gain seen yesterday.

The one thing that will become more and more obvious as the initial drama of the Brexit election results are digested is that little will change overnight, as it is really in Great Britain’s hands to initiate the process.

Considering that they won’t have a new Prime Minister for another few months and David Cameron has made it clear that he’s not the one to have the negotiations with the European Union, the only thing that should really be of near term concern is whether other nations or other parts of the United Kingdom seek to make changes.

That’s still anyone’s guess, but most countries may note that things aren’t necessarily going to get better for the British economy as they leave the EU.

The real surprise is that The UK voted against its economic interests. Most other countries are not likely to do that.

I do hope that the gains continue and I’d like to see some assignments this week for the 2 new positions opened, although, once again, I might not mind rolling them over, even if they are in the money.

Doing so, reminds me of what was fairly common practice about 5 years ago. Back then, though, volatility was high for most every stock in the purchase universe.

This time around, selected stocks and selected sectors are offering very attractive premiums, even as the broader volatility is still low.

Those premiums are sometimes hard to resist, especially if the downside seems to be well defined.

Daily Market Update – June 28, 2016 (Close)

The drama was supposed to continue today, as the leader of the “Brexit” movement addressed the European Union and basically urged other countries to do the same as Great Britain, which will likely become a little less great in the coming year.

The bounce I expected to come in the early morning yesterday was pre-empted by David Cameron’s appearance in Parliament and the market really didn’t like what it had heard.

It was basically a reality check that said democracy rules in a democratic society.

Although I thought that it would be a quiet day for me, it may have been the busiest Monday in about 6 or more months, with the opportunity to open 2 new positions and rollover 2 others.

Those rollovers were a bit early and were done in an attempt to keep milking the great income producing machines that the gold related stocks have been over the past year or more.

I fully expect that by December much, if not all of the gains seen in those stocks will be lost, but I do like their ability to generate recurrent income through thick and thin.

While yesterday didn’t bring the rebound, this morning looked like it might be the real thing, despite the potential for some acrimony in the upcoming European split. The futures had been showing digit gains in the DJIA, although well off their early highs, but then mounted a comeback before the opening bell.

The rest of the world had some snap back and that may have helped. It probably didn’t hurt.

The snap back, although welcome, has still come nowhere close to erasing the declines seen in the past 2 trading sessions.

If today sticks to the script, the expectation shouldn’t be for sustainable gains, as you tend to expect people to bail out as stocks are making back some of their steep losses.

There was, however, some good signs yesterday and today’s market never really wavered.

Yesterday’s good signs were that there really wasn’t any panic and maybe more importantly, there was actually buying heading into the final hour, even as there was a reported large imbalance on the sell side.

Funny how those things seem to work out.

The expectation was for more selling going into the close and precisely the opposite happened and it definitely carried through for all of today’s session.

I doubt that I will be buying anything additional for the rest of the week, but I would definitely take advantage of any opportunity to roll positions over or to sell calls on uncovered positions.

But that isn’t any different from what I would have wanted to have done before “Brexit.”

Maybe, like so many things, the big story of the day means nothing a couple of days later, as something new grabs attention.

Unless some more shoes drop in the European Union, the story may be over until the recession so widely predicted finally happens in Great Britain, although those predictions have a funny way of not working out.

Daily Market Update – June 28, 2016 (7:45 AM)

The drama will continue today, as the leader of the “Brexit” movement today addressed the European Union and basically urged other countries to do the same as Great Britain, which will likely become a little less great in the coming year.

The bounce I expected to come in the early morning yesterday was pre-empted by David Cameron’s appearance in Parliament and the market really didn’t like what it had heard.

It was basically a reality check that said democracy rules in a democratic society.

Although I thought that it would be a quiet day for me, it may have been the busiest Monday in about 6 or more months, with the opportunity to open 2 new positions and rollover 2 others.

Those rollovers were a bit early and were done in an attempt to keep milking the great income producing machines that the gold related stocks have been over the past year or more.

I fully expect that by December much, if not all of the gains seen in those stocks will be lost, but I do like their ability to generate recurrent income through thick and thin.

While yesterday didn’t bring the rebound, this morning may, as the futures are still showing triple digit gains in the DJIA, although well off their early highs, as the rest of the world had some snap back.

The snap back, although welcome, has still come nowhere close to erasing the declines seen in the past 2 trading sessions.

If today sticks to the script, the expectation shouldn’t be for sustainable gains, as you tend to expect people to bail out as stocks are making back some of their steep losses.

There was, however, some good signs yesterday.

Once again, there really wasn’t any panic and maybe more importantly, there was actually buying heading into the final hour, even as there was a reported large imbalance on the sell side.

Funny how those things seem to work out.

The expectation was for more selling going into the close and precisely the opposite happened.

I doubt that I will be buying anything additional for the rest of the week, but I would definitely take advantage of any opportunity to roll positions over or to sell calls on uncovered positions.

But that isn’t any different from what I would have wanted to have done before “Brexit.”

Maybe, like so many things, the big story of the day means nothing a couple of days later, as something new grabs attention.

Unless some more shoes drop in the European Union, the story may be over until the recession so widely predicted finally happens in Great Britain, although those predictions have a funny way of not working out.

Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (Close)

One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave the European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 4 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures were not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce would occur.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

That 10 AM bounce never came though, as that was about the time that outgoing British Prime Minister, and on the wrong side of public opinion on the topic at hand, spoke to Britains and the world.

I liked what I heard, but investors didn’t care for it too much.

We stood 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there was easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I was as rapt as I thought I would be during the day, even as the words fell onto deaf ears.

What I wasn’t expecting was to make as many trades as I did and I even had another one o
r
two that I had tried to make.

Hopefully, I won’t have any regret later in the week, as did many Brexit voters.

Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (8:30 AM)

One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave tthe European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 2 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures are not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce occurs.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

We stand 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there is easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I will be rapt this morning, even as the words will fall onto deaf ears.

Daily Market Update – June 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  MRO *

Expirations:  HFC

The following were ex-dividend this week:  LVS (6/20 $0.72), JOY (6/20 $0.01)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

* With a large decline looming this morning following Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the position in Marathon Oil, is dropping sharply in the pre-opening futures. Rather than seeing it assigned, if it remains above $1`3.50, I may be interested in attempting to roll it over.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls closed and nearly 18 hours before all the votes were expected to be counted, the mood was pretty optimistic that departure wasn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that was the position of things this morning and that optimism never gave up.

In fact, the market traded in a narrow range, albeit nicely higher, until the final hour.

That’s when the market decided to add on even more, with still about an hour until the polls were actually closed.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday, especially as a follow-up to today.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a guideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, while I was expecting that it might be another day of watching things, there was an opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position, although it was for 3 months ahead.

After seeing what the market ended up doing on the rumor, tomorrow we may end up seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today was “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.