Author: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: MRO $15 (puts)

Expirations:   BMY, CY, HPQ, MRO $14 (puts), WY

The following were ex-dividend this week:    FAST (10/21 $0.30) 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (Close)

With a lot of earnings already out early this morning that painted a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market, despite that small loss today.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning’s sale of so,e calls on an uncovered position helped even more.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may continue to come tomorrow.and after.

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Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (7:30 AM)

With a lot of earnings already out this morning that paint a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning may help it along a bit.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may come today and tomorrow.

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Daily Market Update –  October 19, 2016 (Close)

The financial sector is now done with earnings, at least as far as the major players go.

For them even without a rising interest rate environment as had been expected, things are going well.

That doesn’t always translate into things going equally well, or even well, for the rest of the economy.

So far, although it’s very early in the reporting process, the same kind of performance isn’t being seen more widely.

While it’s nice that the big banks are doing well and it’s nice that a streaming entertainment service is doing well, those aren’t what’s really important.

There have already been some significant losers and some winners in these early days, but the optimistic guidance outlook that so many thought might be coming with this quarter’s announcements, haven’t come yet.

There’s still time, but for now, I think that I’m shifting back to observer mode.

With a new position this week, a rollover and the sale of calls on an existing position, I may be ready to call it a week, except for the fact that there are a number of positions in line for expiration and I would rather see them in line for assignment or rollover.

I don’t give up hope of either of those two latter outcomes, but we will need a couple of strong days to finish this week to see those happen.

This morning didn’t look as if it was going to be one of those strong days higher, so my eyes were focused on the final 2 days of the week.

I would have gladly taken any of the opportunities that came along today, though and kick off early for the week, but that’s not going to happen.

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Daily Market Update –  October 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The financial sector is now done with earnings, at least as far as the major players go.

For them even without a rising interest rate environment as had been expected, things are going well.

That doesn’t always translate into things going equally well, or even well, for the rest of the economy.

So far, although it’s very early in the reporting process, the same kind of performance isn’t being seen more widely.

While it’s nice that the big banks are doing well and it’s nice that a streaming entertainment service is doing well, those aren’t what’s really important.

There have already been some significant losers and some winners in these early days, but the optimistic guidance outlook that so many thought might be coming with this quarter’s announcements, haven’t come yet.

There’s still time, but for now, I think that I’m shifting back to observer mode.

With a new position this week, a rollover and the sale of calls on an existing position, I may be ready to call it a week, except for the fact that there are a number of positions in line for expiration and I would rather see them in line for assignment or rollover.

I don’t give up hope of either of those two latter outcomes, but we will need a couple of strong days to finish this week to see those happen.

This morning doesn’t look as if it is going to be one of those strong days higher, so my eyes are focused on the final 2 days of the week.

I would gladly take any of the opportunities that came along today, though and kick off early for the week, but that’s not going to happen.

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Daily Market Update –  October 18, 2016 (Close)

Last night’s earnings reports were mixed after the market closed.

Too bad Netflix and some others like it, such as Facebook, even Google, are not what the economy is really all about.

Even when the financial sector is strong, that doesn’t necessarily translate into something good going on in the economy.

Technology does. Retail and housing, do.

So far, IBM got technology off and reported its 18th consecutive quarter of decreasing revenues.

Fortunately, IBM isn’t the market leader it used to be.

Yesterday saw the market with a small loss on the day, after having been asleep for the final 2 hours of trading.

This morning’s early futures appeared to be making up that loss as earnings kept pouring in. The gain was able to be maintained, even though some of it dissipated, but it was still a good day, especially with an opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position.

I’ll take that as a small victory, even though I had to go all the way out to march 2017 to get something resembling an acceptable return compared to the S&P 500.

Assuming that the S&P 500 doesn’t do too much from here until March 2017, that is.

With that out of the way, there isn’t too much otherwise to pay much attention to besides earnings this week.

After having opened a new position yesterday and having made an unexpected rollover, I don’t think there will be much more trading on the week, although I would definitely welcome any chance to roll over any of the remaining positions, but I’m not holding my breath.

However, I wasn’t going to hold my breath for the chance of being able to sell any calls on uncovered positions either and that seemed to work out.

So…

After hearing Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer yesterday, I have no idea where the economy stands, especially after the Atlanta Federal reserve again lowered its GDP estimates.

What that means for a December rate hike is unclear and how investors will now react either to a hike or to a delay in the rate, is really unclear.

That’s encouraging, I suppose.

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Daily Market Update –  October 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last night’s earnings reports were mixed cfter the market closed.

Too bad Netflix and some others like it, such as Facebook, even Google, are not what the economy is really all about.

Even when the financial sector is strong, that doesn’t necessarily translate into something good going on in the economy.

Technology does. Retail and housing, do.

So far, IBM got technology off and reported its 18th consecutive quarter of decreasing revenues.

Fortunately, IBM isn’t the market leader it used to be.

Yesterday saw the market with a small loss on the day, after having been asleep for the final 2 hours of trading.

This morning’s early futures appear to be making up that loss as earnings keep pouring in.

There isn’t too much otherwise to pay much attention to besides earnings this week.

After having opened a new position yesterday and having made an unexpected rollover, I don’t think there will be much more trading on the week, although I would definitely welcome any chance to roll over any of the remaining positions, but I’m not holding my breath.

After hearing Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer yesterday, I have no idea where the economy stands, especially after the Atlanta Federal reserve again lowered its GDP estimates.

What that means for a December rate hike is unclear and how investors will now react either to a hike or to a delay in the rate, is really unclear.

That’s encouraging, I suppose.

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Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (Close)

There’s not too much scheduled this week outside of earnings, so we may actually get a chance to focus on fundamentals.

There aren’t even very many Federal Reserve  speakers this week, so those earnings and especially guidances, may really be front and center.

What everyone is looking forward to is a break to the past 6 quarters of sub-par earnings and tepid guidance.

I had been looking forward to this week, as it was going to be the successful conclusion to the October 2016 option cycle, but now that “successful” qualifier is at real risk.

Barely a week ago I thought most of the week’s expiring positions were likely to either be assigned or rolled over.

Now, it doesn’t seem that way, although one of those originally set to expire this week was rolled over last week and I did get to roll over another position today, once again going long, by adding another month onto the existing contract.

Still, that changes things if the expiring positions aren’t going to contribute to my well being this week, even if they might yet again do so.

With less prospects for developing rollover revenue from those expiring positions, there was some need to add to existing positions. However, with minimal prospects of having assignments and replenishing cash, I also had a reluctance to dip into those reserves at a time that I would mind seeing them grow.

Such dilemmas.

Usually, I spend the money if there is anything that looks remotely attractive and this week would probably be no different.

It wasn’t, as I went back yet again to the well, more precisely the oil well, and repeated the trade of last week and some 8 other times in 2016.

What will probably be no different is that the trading during the rest of the week will likely be sparse, as there is also very little reason to get out ahead of the market on the long side, at a time when there may be need to simply get out of the market.

With a new position and a roll over already, along with one ex-dividend position, maybe I should call it a week.

While the market was exceptionally flat through most of the day, there’s still some hope for something good to hit the tape as companies report this week and may give markets a reason to be optimistic.

Today wasn’t really that day, as Netflix isn’t yet a market leader and IBM continues to not crush it, as it claimed victory by reporting flat revenues.

That’s been the story for lots of companies for far too long.

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Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

There’s not too much scheduled this week outside of earnings, so we may actually get a chance to focus on fundamentals.

There aren’t even very many Federal Reserve  speakers this week, so those earnings and especially guidances, may really be front and center.

What everyone is looking forward to is a break to the past 6 quarters of sub-par earnings and tepid guiance.

I had been looking forward to this week, as it was going to be the successful conclusion to the October 2016 option cycle, but now that “successful” qualifier is at real risk.

Barely a week ago I thought most of the week’s expiring positions were likely to either be assigned or rolled over.

Now, it doesn’t seem that way, although one of those originally set to expire this week was rolled over last week.

Still, that changes things if the expiring positions aren’t going to contribute to my well being this week, even if they might yet again do so.

With less prospects for developing rollover revenue from those expiring positions, there may be some need to add to existing positions. However, with minimal prospects of having assignments and replenishing cash, I also have a reluctance to dip into those reserves at a time that I would mind seeing them grow.

Such dilemmas.

Usually, I spend the money if there is anything that looks remotely attractive and this week will probably be no different.

What will also probably be no different is that the trading will likely be sparse, as there is also very little reason to get out ahead of the market on the long side, at a time when there may be need to simply get out of the market.

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