Month: September 2016

Daily Market Update – September 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Once the world fully expresses its outrage over the rumored loss of the phone jack in the new iPhone 7, we may have the chance to return to business, as normal.

It looks, though, as if the market is already set to do that, as the futures are trading unchanged.

That comes after a small gain yesterday that made it look as if the day was actually filled with some activity, when it wasn’t.

Yesterday was another day of very narrow range and had very little going on, even as there were some buyout stories that could have given the market a boost.

But basically, the market didn’t care about too much yesterday.

There isn’t too much reason for it to care about anything today or for the rest of the week, although like last week, there could easily be an outlier day that just as easily gets reversed the next day.

For now, nothing much matters until the FOMC meets.

In just 2 weeks we’ll find out whether they will be ahead of the seeable curve or whether even they can’t yet see where the curvature begins.

While i think it might be a good idea to not be ahead of the curve this time around, it’s a reasonable guarantee that no one on the FOMC would be of that belief.

So, we’ll find out in 2 weeks whether rates are nudging higher and just how markets will react, as they have made it pretty clear that while accepting an interest rate increase, they don’t want one now.

Either way, markets will get over it.

Yesterday, the odds of a September increase went lower, as there was some disappointing ISM news.

For the next 2 weeks every little piece of data will be looked at individually, whereas the data should be looked at in their totality.

The biggest pieces, Employment and GDP, are painting opposing pictures and defeating logic at every turn, so it may not be a bad idea to look more closely for any clues about what is really going on in the economy in some of the lesser indicators.

And then hope that you’re right.

The FOMC wasn’t in December 2015, but it’s hard to argue that anyone paid a price for that mis-read, even as the market had its first 10% correction in years.

That correction was only a blip, now that we can look back over the past 6 months.

I did try to get some trades in yesterday, but they were both rollovers.

Not much happened, but I hope to be able to have the chance to try again today and still won’t close the door on any new positions.

I’m not expecting much, but then the disappointments will be fewer.

Daily Market Update – September 6, 2016 (Close)

Summer is pretty much over and we’re now getting back to normal.

For one thing, that means that over the course of the next 24 days we’ll be hearing a lot about the budget and the need for continuing appropriations to be made by October 1, 2016.

This time around, you can bet that at least one of the 2 main political parties does not want a shutdown, while maybe the other one does.

The other thing that you can count on is a continuation of the FOMC watch, as eyes will be focused on that small group as it meets in just 2 weeks.

Today, as the market closed pretty flat, the sentiment was that some weaker than expected ISM data suggested that there wouldn’t be an interest rate increase in those 2 weeks, but tomorrow may be another story, altogether.

Following last Friday’s Employment Situation report, no one probably expects the announcement of an interest rate increase, but those FOMC members have been pretty cagey about keeping everyone on their toes and guessing.

I’m guessing that there won’t be an increase, but those winds shift daily.

This week does have a couple of expiring positions and 6 ex-dividend positions, so I’m not feeling too much need to look for new positions.

With the uncertainty in the market, reflected once again in the flat futures this morning to start the week, there’s not too much reason to be very adventurous.

I wouldn’t mind adding to some of the dividend positions, but at this point I think I would just as soon focus myself on either getting those 2 expiring positions rolled over or assigned.

I did try that today on at least one of them, but got rebuffed on that, as well as a rollover of a position going ex-dividend on Friday.

While I’d like to add to cash reserves, I don’t mind the idea of continuing to roll either or both of those positions over.

There isn’t too much on tap this week to drive markets, but volume should be picking up, not that the contracted volume caused any upheavals in August.

This week, with only 4 trading days and low volatility, may simply be a return to the quietude of 2016.

Of course, if you were really paying attention to the news or rumor of news today, you would know that the real interest was over whether you’ll have to listen to that quietude without having an audio jack on your new iPhone.

Investor people problems

.

Daily Market Update – September 6, 2016 (9:00 AM)

Summer is pretty much over and we’re now getting back to normal.

For one thing, that means that over the course of the next 24 days we’ll be hearing a lot about the budget and the need for continuing appropriations to be made by October 1, 2016.

This time around, you can bet that at least one of the 2 main political parties does not want a shutdown, while maybe the other one does.

The other thing that you can count on is a continuation of the FOMC watch, as eyes will be focused on that small group as it meets in just 2 weeks.

Following last Friday’s Employment Situation report, no one probably expects the announcement of an interest rate increase, but those FOMC members have been pretty cagey about keeping everyone on their toes and guessing.

I’m guessing that there won’t be an increase, but those winds shift daily.

This week does have a couple of expiring positions and 6 ex-dividend positions, so I’m not feeling too much need to look for new positions.

With the uncertainty in the market, reflected once again in the flat futures this morning to start the week, there’s not too much reason to be very adventurous.

I wouldn’t mind adding to some of the dividend positions, but at this point I think I would just as soon focus myself on either getting those 2 expiring positions rolled over or assigned.

While I’d like to add to cash reserves, I don’t mind the idea of continuing to roll either or both of those positions over.

There isn’t too much on tap this week to drive markets, but volume should be picking up, not that the contracted volume caused any upheavals in August.

This week, with only 4 trading days and low volatility, may simply be a return to the quietude of 2016.

.

MONDAY:   Oil and the Employment Situation Report should be the stories for the week, with interest rates maybe taking a break until the latter is released on Friday

TUESDAY:   After an unexpectedly strong day yesterday, it looks as if the futures are back on track for summer doldrums, although Friday’s Employment Situation Report still beckons

WEDNESDAY: It looks as if it might continue to be quiet today as most are awaiting Friday’s Employment Situation Report and debating September versus December, forgetting that the FOMC has said that an off cycle announcement is a possibility.

THURSDAY:  Yesterday seemed to follow oil lower, but we are still in a tight range and that appears to be continuing in the morning’s futures as we all await tomorrow’s Employment Situation report

FRIDAY:.  Today may be a big day to cap off a week that has done little but continue the general trend of doing little over the past month







Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect, as long as your definition of normal has been for stocks to follow oil.

That’s what it did yesterday, although at this point it may just be coincidental, as the relationship between the two hasn’t been that strong for the past few weeks.

There really wasn’t much else going on to account for the decline, other than perhaps to make up the gain seen earlier in the week.

This morning’s futures were again flat, as you might have thought would have been the theme for most of the week as we all awaited Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Today actually was fairly weak for much of the day, but eventually acquitted itself as the DJIA actually cliosed with a small gain, in  a show of some confidence, even as oil continued weak and markets had uncertainty about tomorrow.

No one is really expecting a very strong number, nor a very weak number.

It will really be interesting to see the reaction in either event.

The most likely to send stocks moving higher would be a number that came in line with projections or was actually lower.

That might give investors reason to believe that there would be less chance of an interest rate increase in September, which, if you haven’t noticed has now arrived.

I think a really strong number would send stocks lower, but they would likely not stay there too long, as there is reason to believe that investors would at some point come to accept the fact that rates are going higher because consumers are making and spending more money.

Within reason, that’s great news, although not always great for stocks, which are supposed to see these things happening 6 months before they do.

By that reckoning, the turnaround in February may have presaged what is going on now, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I still do have some money to spend, but am very unlikely to do so this week.

What i would really like to see is a market climb tomorrow and an opportunity to make some money by selling calls on anything that remains uncovered.

Slowly, that’s happening, but “slowly” is the key word.

Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect, as long as your definition of normal has been for stocks to follow oil.

That’s what it did yesterday, although at this point it may just be coincidental, as the relationship between the two hasn’t been that strong for the past few weeks.

There really wasn’t much else going on to account for the decline, other than perhaps to make up the gain seen earlier in the week.

This morning’s futures are again flat, as you might have thought would have been the theme for most of the week as we all awaited Friday’s Employment Situation report.

No one is really expecting a very strong number, nor a very weak number.

It will really be interesting to see the reaction in either event.

The most likely to send stocks moving higher would be a number that came in line with projections or was actually lower.

That might give investors reason to believe that there would be less chance of an interest rate increase in September, which, if you haven’t noticed has now arrived.

I think a really strong number would send stocks lower, but they would likely not stay there too long, as there is reason to believe that investors would at some point come to accept the fact that rates are going higher because consumers are making and spending more money.

Within reason, that’s great news, although not always great for stocks, which are supposed to see these things happening 6 months before they do.

By that reckoning, the turnaround in February may have presaged what is going on now, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I still do have some money to spend, but am very unlikely to do so this week.

What i would really like to see is a market climb tomorrow and an opportunity to make some money by selling calls on anything that remains uncovered.

Slowly, that’s happening, but “slowly” is the key word.