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Daily Market Update – September 7, 2016 (7:30 AM) Once the world fully expresses its outrage over the rumored loss of the phone jack in the new iPhone 7, we may have the chance to return to business, as normal. It looks, though, as if the market is already set to do that, as the futures are trading unchanged. That comes after a small gain yesterday that made it look as if the day was actually filled with some activity, when it wasn’t. Yesterday was another day of very narrow range and had very little going on, even as there were some buyout stories that could have given the market a boost. But basically, the market didn’t care about too much yesterday. There isn’t too much reason for it to care about anything today or for the rest of the week, although like last week, there could easily be an outlier day that just as easily gets reversed the next day. For now, nothing much matters until the FOMC meets. In just 2 weeks we’ll find out whether they will be ahead of the seeable curve or whether even they can’t yet see where the curvature begins. While i think it might be a good idea to not be ahead of the curve this time around, it’s a reasonable guarantee that no one on the FOMC would be of that belief. So, we’ll find out in 2 weeks whether rates are nudging higher and just how markets will react, as they have made it pretty clear that while accepting an interest rate increase, they don’t want one now. Either way, markets will get over it. Yesterday, the odds of a September increase went lower, as there was some disappointing ISM news. For the next 2 weeks every little piece of data will be looked at individually, whereas the data should be looked at in their totality. The biggest pieces, Employment and GDP, are painting opposing pictures and defeating logic at every turn, so it may not be a bad idea to look more closely for any clues about what is really going on in the economy in some of the lesser indicators. And then hope that you’re right. The FOMC wasn’t in December 2015, but it’s hard to argue that anyone paid a price for that mis-read, even as the market had its first 10% correction in years. That correction was only a blip, now that we can look back over the past 6 months. I did try to get some trades in yesterday, but they were both rollovers. Not much happened, but I hope to be able to have the chance to try again today and still won’t close the door on any new positions. I’m not expecting much, but then the disappointments will be fewer. |
