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Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016 (7:30 AM) Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect, as long as your definition of normal has been for stocks to follow oil. That’s what it did yesterday, although at this point it may just be coincidental, as the relationship between the two hasn’t been that strong for the past few weeks. There really wasn’t much else going on to account for the decline, other than perhaps to make up the gain seen earlier in the week. This morning’s futures are again flat, as you might have thought would have been the theme for most of the week as we all awaited Friday’s Employment Situation report. No one is really expecting a very strong number, nor a very weak number. It will really be interesting to see the reaction in either event. The most likely to send stocks moving higher would be a number that came in line with projections or was actually lower. That might give investors reason to believe that there would be less chance of an interest rate increase in September, which, if you haven’t noticed has now arrived. I think a really strong number would send stocks lower, but they would likely not stay there too long, as there is reason to believe that investors would at some point come to accept the fact that rates are going higher because consumers are making and spending more money. Within reason, that’s great news, although not always great for stocks, which are supposed to see these things happening 6 months before they do. By that reckoning, the turnaround in February may have presaged what is going on now, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I still do have some money to spend, but am very unlikely to do so this week. What i would really like to see is a market climb tomorrow and an opportunity to make some money by selling calls on anything that remains uncovered. Slowly, that’s happening, but “slowly” is the key word. |
