Month: July 2016

Daily Market Update – July 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday would have been a good day to take a little bit of a break.

It did do just that until about noon and then it just became another day of gains and another day getting closer to the resistance points that reside ahead.

This morning, following those gains, which left the market closing at its highs, looks as if it is going to take another break.

This time, if it does, it may be a pragmatic break, because tomorrow brings what could be an important bit of economic news.

With the release of the Employment Situation Report we can either confirm the last shockingly low number which definitely scuttled plans for an interest rate increase or we can disavow those numbers as either a one time or maybe even erroneous data set, as revisions are always possible.

Either way, that could mean some significant activity.

Of course, there’s also the possibility that tomorrow’s numbers will be mediocre and the market may continue to be of a mindset to think of that as good news for stock investors, as interest rates will continue to decline.

With only a single position set to expire this week, and a highly volatile one at that, it’s again another situation of not minding if I could roll that single position over, rather than seeing it get assigned.

With some positions set to expire next week as the July 2015 option cycle comes to its end, but no ex-dividend positions, I may still want to free up some additional funds, 

So there may not be much trading left in me for this already trade shortened week, although if the market does react negatively to the news on Friday, I may want to get a head start on the consideration of new positions for the following week, especially if that single expiring position is still in line for assignment.

Daily Market Update – July 6, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a day to take a little bit of a break.

After such strong gains following the large post-Brexit decline, it was probably a good thing to take that kind of a break and to set up a floor from where to make an attack on intermediate and all time highs on the S&P 500.

Both were a little bit further away as this morning was ready to get started, but both were still easy within reach and that reach got even easier by the day’s close as the market made a big turnaround and started posting gains by Noon.

Even more positive is that the market again closed right near its high for the day. 

That was a trend that actually started last week, even on the solitary down day to begin that week.

The market now seems even pretty well positioned to start to attack those support levels at about 2112 and 2137.

The expectation would be that the 2112 may be breached fairly easily at this point, but may still need to be tested.

The 2137 will be more difficult, but days of consolidation of gains, such as yesterday and maybe again today can make it easier to make those assaults as a new level of support is created after the recent large gains.

Yesterday had the usual culprits for a weak market.

Oil was very weak, gold was strong and interest rates went even lower.

Add to that the strength in the US Dollar and you had the equation that would lead to stock selling.

This morning oil wasn’t very weak, but nothing else has really changed in the world, otherwise.

What did change was that oil reversed its direction and took the market along with it.

While the futures were again pointing to some weakness, I would have preferred that over the way the day finally worked out. Some modest declines may not have been such a bad thing, as the big picture evolves.

Today we got some more insight into what the FOMC had been thinking and we may continue to have reason to question the health of our own economy, although the doubts could be set aside with a rebound in the Employment Situation Report numbers on Friday.

That would certainly confuse things and probably further test support.

I don’t expect to be doing much more this week, having made a single purchase and with the big question marks that serve as overhangs.

That will all bring us to the following week and the beginning of another earnings season where we may begin hearing a lot about the risks associated with Brexit.

Those could serve as real headwinds to stocks as guidance may be pessimistic, but next week is still an eternity away.

Daily Market Update – July 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a day to take a little bit of a break.

After such strong gains following the large post-Brexit decline, it was probably a good thing to take that kind of a break and to set up a floor from where to make an attack on intermediate and all time highs on the S&P 500.

Both are a little bit further away as this morning is ready to get started, but both are still easy within reach.

The market seems pretty well positioned to start to attack those support levels at about 2112 and 2137.

The expectation would be that the 2112 may be breached fairly easily at this point, but may still need to be tested.

The 2127 will be more difficult, but days of consolidation of gains, such as yesterday and maybe again today can make it easier to make those assaults as a new level of support is created after the recent large gains.

Yesterday had the usual culprits for a weak market.

Oil was very weak, gold was strong and interest rates went even lower.

Add to that the strength in the US Dollar and you had the equation that would lead to stock selling.

This morning oil isn’t very weak, but nothing else has really changed in the world, otherwise.

The futures are again pointing to some weakness, but that may not be such a bad thing, as the big picture evolves.

Today we get some more insight into what the FOMC has been thinking and we may have reason to question the health of our own economy, although the doubts could be set aside with a rebound in the Employment Situation Report numbers on Friday.

That would certainly confuse things and probably further test support.

I don’t expect to be doing much more this week, having made a single purchase and with the big question marks that serve as overhangs.

That will all bring us to the following week and the beginning of another earnings season where we may begin hearing a lot about therisks associated with Brexit.

Those could serve as real headwinds to stocks as guidance may be pessimistic, but next week is still an eternity away.

Daily Market Update – July 5, 2016 (Close)

I used to not like it when the markets were closed on Mondays, but these days I welcome the chance to take a breather, even as I do less trading than in the past 10 years.

That’s not by design, as I would much rather be an active trader than a passive one.

Still, I do enjoy the one day respite from staring at a screen and a ticker crawl, particularly if neither are going to lead to anything worthwhile.

This week opened after a remarkable turnaround following a decline that probably shouldn’t have happened to the extent that it did.

This morning, just as the manner in which the previous week came to its close, it looked as if the market may have been ready to  take a little bit of a breather.

That’s likely a good thing as those all too rapid climbs that are still below resistance levels have a way of not holding up unless some new support levels are established.

A few days of quietude may be just the thing to go and surpass the previous high on the S&P 500.

This week does have a couple of important events, though and as the first day of trading came to its end, those important events come with the need to dig out from some moderate losses, that were less than they could have been.

Tomorrow, we get a release of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting. That was the meeting that we were beginning to expect an interest rate increase, but following the abysmal Employment Situation Report, it was really hard to justify.

Then, as the week comes to an end we have another Employment Situation Report and if it continues to disappoint, I think the market will look at it in the context of predictions for a recession in Great Britain and mindful of JP Morgan economists projections for here in the US.

But, if the numbers are good, especially if there’s a revision in the previous month, it may be off to the races.

Even as traders have in the past looked at the potential for an interest rate increase as being a bad thing, I think anything that says that the economy is healthier than we thought would be a good thing.

With a few assignments last week and only a single ex-dividend position this week and no expiring positions, I would still like to make some trades, even after opening one new position today.

As I did have my eye on some new positions this week, as outlined in the weekly Weekend Update, I was inclined to look at last week’s assignments as possible re-purchases, if they followed the market somewhat lower today.

At least one of those fit the bill and maybe the other will, as well.

As has been the case lately, with what few purchases I’ve been making, I like the idea of getting a high premium for a position that I think is near a bottom.

Those declines make people think that more are forthcoming and that drives up premiums.

While the market was only modestly lower this morning and oil down fairly sharply, I was very willing to part with some money, but will again be looking for short term positions as next week ushers in another earnings season.

The news today was just like old times. 

Weaker oil, a stronger dollar and worries about European banks.

Maybe the first two will be be
tt
er by tomorrow, but the latter has had a tendency to remain as a weight on the market for more than just a day at a time.

As always, we’ll see.

Daily Market Update – July 5, 2016 (8:00 AM)

I used to not like it when the markets were closed on Mondays, but these days I welcome the chance to take a breather, even as I do less trading than in the past 10 years.

That’s not by design, as I would much rather be an active trader than a passive one.

Still, I do enjoy the one day respite from staring at a screen and a ticker crawl, particularly if neither are going to lead to anything worthwhile.

This week opens after a remarkable turnaround following a decline that probably shouldn’t have happened to the extent that it did.

This morning, just as the manner in which the previous week came to its close, it looks as if the market may be taking a little bit of a breather.

That’s likely a good thing as those all too rapid climbs that are still below resistance levels have a way of not holding up unless some new support levels are established.

A few days of quietude may be just the thing to go and surpass the previous high on the S&P 500.

This week does have a couple of important events, though.

Tomorrow, we get a release of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting. That was the meeting that we were beginning to expect an interest rate increase, but following the abysmal Employment Situation Report, it was really hard to justify.

Then, as the week comes to an end we have another Employment Situation Report and if it continues to disappoint, I think the market will look at it in the context of predictions for a recession in Great Britain and mindful of JP Morgan economists projections for here in the US.

But, if the numbers are good, especially if there’s a revision in the previous month, it may be off to the races.

Even as traders have in the past looked at the potential for an interest rate increase as being a bad thing, I think anything that says that the economy is healthier than we thought would be a good thing.

With a few assignments last week and only a single ex-dividend position this week and no expiring positions, I would like to make some trades.

Even as I do have my eye on some new positions this week, as outlined in the weekly Weekend Update, I would be inclined to look at last week’s assignments as possible re-purchases, if they follow the market somewhat lower today.

AS has been the case lately, with what few purchases I’ve been making, I like the idea of getting a high premium for a position that I think is near a bottom.

Those declines make people think that more are forthcoming and that drives up premiums.

While the market is only modestly lower this morning and oil down fairly sharply, I am very willing to part with some money, but would again be looking for short term positions as next week ushers in another earnings season.

MONDAY:   Happy and safe Fourth of July to all

TUESDAY:   The markets, including oil, may be taking another breather today as the holiday shortened trading week ends with an Employment Situation Report and is interrupted mid-week with FOMC minutes

WEDNESDAY:  Oil was down yesterday, gold higher, interest rates lower and the dollar higher. All made for an environment to send the market lower for the first time in a week. This morning futures are again lower, although the market closed yesterday well off from its lows, but there isn’t much in the early going to give reason to continue yesterday’s relative late strength

THURSDAY:  A nice recovery yesterday afternoon and now the futures are flat, as we await tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report. That could do what it did last time and set off some fireworks or sow some confusion ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

FRIDAY:.  The Employment Situation Report comes this morning and a big bounce from last month is expected. What the reaction to that bounce will be is leading to some tentativeness in the futures this morning







Daily Market Update – July 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Monday at Noon.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  EBAY*, MRO*

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CSCO (7/5 $0.26)

* In the event that a rollover is possible and able to provide an additionally 1% weekly ROI, I would prefer to rollover those positions, rather than accept assignment.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.