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Daily Market Update – September 30, 2015 (8:15 AM)
It’s not really clear what might account for the morning’s futures pointing to an almost 200 point gain. It could be that Asia was strong overnight, but that has been a very inconsistent indicator for about the last month. While the early part of our market’s decline definitely followed that in Asia, the uncertainty there has seemingly now been factored into our own thinking and largely discounted at this point, although you just never know what may come next from that part of the world, for better or worse. Whatever it is that’s creating this morning’s early rise, it isn’t based upon any news, so it’s likely that it’s just more of the same going back and forth that we’ve seen ever since that breakdown between our markets an China, in particular. Since the, which includes the plunge that took us to our first 10% correction in years, there has been a continuing series of waves taking us up and down and in large moves. Most of those moves have offset one another, although the net result has still had a negative bias and following Monday’s 300+ point decline everyone was running back to their charts to see where the next levels of support happened to be, just in case the next shoe were to drop. Yesterday was the kind of day that today, by all rights should be. There’s really not any news to account for any kind of large move, but of course, that didn’t stop Monday from happening and it may not stop today from happening. With the Employment Situation Report looming on Friday and the prospects that it may offer another in a lengthening series of strong results, comes the idea that maybe the FOMC will finally raise rates. That could be accounting for some of the early enthusiasm this morning just as it likely accounted for the early week strentgh that was quickly reversed two weeks ago when the FOMC disappointed most everyone by not announcing what had been widely expected. With both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer scheduled to speak this week there may be some hints of what’s to come, but because the FOMC hasn’t been exactly straight forward, those hints will have to be very heavy handed if the market is going to take the bait. With a couple of recent familiar faces having been this week’s new purchase positions, I’m more than happy to see this morning’s strength and just hope that there’s some continuation of it, or at least that the market settles in at around these levels as the week will come to its end. If so, there could at least be some chance to see some assignments or some rollovers. If so, especially if there are assignments of those same familiar faces, I wouldn’t mind the continuing opportunity to consider purchasing them again and again, which is the definite advantage of having a market of stocks that is really undecided about where it wants to go. As long as the volatility can remain at these or higher levels, there can be lots of advantage in not thinking too creatively, but rather just doing the same thing, and with the very same stocks, over and over again. |
