Dashboard – July 21 – 15, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Selections

MONDAY:  While we were transfixed over the weekend on developing news, there was really nothing of a level to make markets react as the week gets its start. Mild weakness looks like it will begin the week’s trading

TUESDAY:     Impressive comeback yesterday that may continue today as international acuity seems to be stabilizing, leaving market to concentrate on lots and lots of earnings.

WEDNESDAY:  More earnings today and hopefully some action, but the morning seems to be getting off to a very flat start after the initial round of reports and with virtually no economic reports released today to push things along

THURSDAY:    The market loves Facebook, but unfortunately advertising revenue isn’t what inspires a market to do great things, but they can be representative of some increasing consumer activity

FRIDAY:  Fridays have lately been the new Tuesdays, with the past 7 having closed higher, but today’s pre-market not playing along.

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – July 20, 2014

While I don’t necessarily believe that space aliens will descend upon us with laser rays blazing, there’s reason to increasingly believe that possibility as we learn more and more about the existence of conditions elsewhere in the universe that may be compatible with sustaining life.

Still, even with that knowledge, I don’t let it control my life and quite frankly will probably never do anything that in any way is impacted by the thought of an encounter with an alien.

The principle reason for not elevating the alarm level is that there is no point in history to serve as an example. The pattern of life on earth has been so far devoid of such occurrences, as best we know. Right now, that’s good enough for me.

However, I just don’t completely discount the possibility, because I believe that it’s of a very low probability. Besides, the vaporization process would be so swift that there would be no time for remorse or regrets. At least that’s what I expect.

By the same token I don’t expect a complete meltdown in the market, even though I know it has and can, likely occur again. Despite its probability of occurrence and my belief of that probability, I’m not really prepared for one if it were to occur, even with the extraordinarily low cost of portfolio protection. The chances of a complete meltdown, as we know, is probably more likely to occur in the near term than the prospect of laser waving aliens in our lifetimes.

For all practical purposes one is a real probability and the other isn’t, yet they aren’t necessarily placed into different risk categories at the moment.

This week’s events, however, served as a reminder that the unexpected should always be expected. With the nice rebound on Friday from Thursday’s news of the tragic downing of the civilian Malaysian airplane, the lesson may be lost, however.

One thing that we seem to have forgotten how to do in the past 5 years is to expect the unexpected. Instead our expectations have been fueled by the relentless climb higher and a feeling of invincibility. To a large degree that feeling has been justified as every attempt to fight back against the gains has been stymied in quick and due course.

I probably wasn’t alone in having that invincible feeling way back in 2007. The vaporization process was fairly swift then, as well.

Even when faced with challenges that in the past would have sent markets tumbling, such as international conflict, we haven’t seen the application of age old adages such as “do not stay long going into a weekend of uncertainty.” This Friday’s market rebound was another example in a long string of uncertainty being expected to not lead to the unexpected.

In essence with the certainty of an ever climbing market having become the new reality there’s been very little reason to exercise caution, or at least to be prepared to act in a cautious manner in the expectation that perhaps the unexpected will occur.

Our minds are wired to like and identify patterns. That’s certainly the strategic basis for stock trading for many. Predictability brings a degree of comfort, but too much comfort brings complacency. The prevailing pattern simply argues against the unexpected, so we have discounted its probability and to a large degree its possibility.

While we may be correct in discounting complete market meltdowns, as their occurrence is still relatively uncommon, that complacency has us discounting intermediate sized moves that can easily come from the unexpected. The world is an increasingly complex and inter-connected place and as seen in the past week there needn’t be advanced warning signs for any of an infinite number of unexpected events to occur.

We did get lucky this past week, but we probably expected the luck to continue if the unexpected did strike. What would really be unexpected would be to draw a lesson from our fragility standing near market highs.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories. With many companies reporting earnings this coming week a companion article, “Taking a Gamble with Earnings,” explores some additional potential trades.

As Thursday’s trading was coming to its close at the lows of the session more and more stocks were beginning to return to what seemed to be more reasonable trading levels.

The problem, of course, is dealing with the unexpected and trying to predict what comes next when there are really no data points to characterize what we’ve seen. Someday when we look back at these events and the market impact we may see a pattern, but at the moment the question will be “which pattern?” Is it one that’s simply a blip and short-lived as the event itself is self-limiting or is the pattern consistent with the beginning stages of what is to become an ongoing and escalating series of events that serve to erode confidence and place continuing strains on the market?

In other words, did we just witness a typical over-reaction and subsequent rebound or are we ready to witness a correction?

I think its the former, but it opens the possibility of additional incidents and escalation of hostilities in a part of the world that is far more meaningful to the world’s economies than unheralded internecine conflicts occurring in so many other places.

Interestingly, with that kind of backdrop, this week, while we begin to sort out what the short term holds, “Momentum” kind of stocks, particularly those with little to no international exposure in the hotbed areas, may be more conservative choices than the more Traditional selections.

While I like British Petroleum (BP), General Electric (GE) and Deere (DE) this week, predominantly due to their recent price drops, there is certainly reason to be wary of their exposure to parts of the world in conflict.

British Petroleum certainly has known interests in Russia and could be at unique risk, however, I believe that we will be seeing a lesser chest thumping Russia in the n
ear term as there is some reason to believe that existing sanctions and perhaps expanded ones are beginning to get attention at the highest levels. Above all, pragmatism would dictate not injuring the source of hard currency.

I’ve been waiting a while to re-purchase shares of British Petroleum and certainly welcome any opportunity, even if still at a price higher than my last entry. With earnings scheduled to be reported July 29, 2014 and a healthy dividend sometime during the August 2014 option cycle there may be opportunities over the coming weeks with these shares to generate ongoing income.

General Electric reported its earnings this past Friday and also announced the impending IPO of its consumer finance business. The market was unimpressed on both counts.

I haven’t owned shares of General Electric with the frequency that it deserved. With a generous and increasing dividend, price stability, low beta and decent option premiums, it certainly has had the appeal for ownership, perhaps even using longer term option contracts to better  lock in some of those dividends. While it has significant international exposure the recent price weakness makes entry a little less risky, but even with the quality and size of General Electric unexpected bumpy rides can be possible when uncontrollable events create investor fear.

Deere is simply finally down to the price level that in the past was my upper range for purchase. With Caterpillar (CAT) reporting earnings later this week and trading near its 52 week high, there is room on the downside, as well as some trickle down to Deere shares. However, with Joy Global’s (JOY) recent performance, my anticipation is that Caterpillar’s Chinese related revenues will be enough to satisfy traders and offer some protection to Deere, as well.

On the Momentum side of the equation this week are Best Buy (BBY), Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and YUM Brands (YUM).

While Las Vegas Sands and YUM Brands certainly have international exposure, at the moment if you had to choose where to place your overseas bets, China may be relatively insulated from the unexpected elsewhere in the world.

Both companies are coming off weak earnings reports and the markets reacted accordingly. Both, however, have been very resilient to declines and finding substantive support levels in the past. With some shares of Las Vegas Sands recently assigned at current levels I would look for opportunity to re-purchase them. It’s volatility offers generous option premiums and the availability of expanded weekly options makes it easier to consider rollover opportunities in the event of unexpected price drops in order to wait out any price rebound, which has been the expected pattern.

YUM Brands is, like Deere, finally approaching the upper range of where I have purchased shares in the past. While I would like to see them even lower, I think that due to its dependence on the Chinese economy and market it may be a relative out-performer in the event of internationally induced market weakness.

Best Buy, unlike YUM Brands and Las Vegas Sands, has recently been on an upward price trajectory. I liked it much better when it was trading in the $26 range, but I believe it still has further upside potential in its slow climb back after unexpectedly bad earnings news 6 months ago. It too has an attractive option premium and a dividend and despite its recent price climb higher has come down nearly 5% in the past two weeks.

I have never purchased shares of Pandora (P) before, but love its product. At the moment I don’t particularly have any great desire to own shares, but Pandora does report earnings this week and is notable for its 10.8% implied price move. In the meantime a 1% ROI can be achieved at a strike price that is 16.4% below the current price. Those are the kind of characteristics that I like to see when considering what may otherwise be a risk laden trade.

Pandora has certainly shown itself capable of making very large earnings related moves and it is also certainly in the cross hairs of other and bigger players, such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG). However, even a scathing critic, TheStreet’s Rocco Pendola, has recently commented that its crushing defeat at the hands of those behemoths is not guaranteed.

Expected, maybe, but not guaranteed.

Facebook (FB) is also reporting earnings this coming week and in the two years that it has done so has predominantly surprised to the upside as it has quickly lived up to its vow to monetize its mobile strategy.

With an implied price move of 7.6% the strike level necessary to generate a 1% ROI through the sale of puts is 8.7% below Friday’s closing price. While shares can certainly make a move much larger than what is expected by the option market, in the event of an adverse move Facebook has some qualities that makes it an easier put option position to manage in the effort to avoid assignment.

It trades expanded weekly options and it does so with liquidity and volume, thereby having relatively narrow bid and ask spreads, even for deep in the money options.

Sooner or later, though, the expectation must be that earnings expectations won’t be met. I wouldn’t discount that possibility, although I think the options market may have done so a bit, so in this case I would be more inclined to consider the sale of puts after earnings, if share price drops on a disappointing report.

Finally, Apple reports earnings this week. It doesn’t really fulfill the criteria that I used when considering the sale of puts prior to earnings, in that it doesn’t appear that a 1% ROI can be achieved at a strike level outside of the range defined by the option market when calculating the “implied move.”

It’s probably useless trying to speculate on sales numbers or guidance. Based on its usual earnings related responses in the past, you would be justified in believing that the market had not expected  the news. However, this quarter the implied move is on the small side, at only 4.5%, suggesting that not much in the way of a surprise is expected next week.

With the current option pricing, the sale of Apple puts doesn’t meet my criteria, but I would again be interested in considering either the sale of puts after earnings, if the market’s response is negative or the outright purchase of shares and sale of calls, in anticipation of an ex-dividend date coming up in early August.

Sometimes it’s just
easier dealing with the expected.

Traditional Stocks:  British Petroleum, Deere, General Electric

Momentum: Best Buy, Las Vegas Sands, YUM Brands

Double Dip Dividend: none

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Apple (7/22 PM), Facebook (7/23 PM), Pandora (P)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Taking a Gamble with Earnings

The coming week stands to be a busy one as about 150 of the S&P 500 stocks will be reporting their quarterly earnings.

While earnings had gotten off to a good start last week with a strong showing from those in the financial sector, the market’s initial optimism was tempered a bit during the first day Janet Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and was sent into a pall with news of the tragic downing of a Malaysian civilian plan over the disputed Ukraine – Russian border area.

Regardless of the direction a stock’s price takes upon the earnings parade that also includes forward guidance there is often opportunity to profit from either the expected or unexpected news that’s delivered.

Whenever I ponder whether an earnings related trade is worth consideration I let the option market’s measure of the “implied price move” serve to determine whether there is a satisfactory risk-reward proposition. That calculation provides a price range in which projected price movements are thought to be likely.

If selling options, whether as part of a covered call strategy or through the sale of puts, there may be opportunity to achieve an acceptable premium even though if it represents a share price outside of the bounds set by the option market. Of course, that does depend to some degree on your own definition of “acceptable” and what you believe to be the appropriate level of risk to accompany that reward.

This coming week there appears to be a number of stocks that may warrant some attention as the reward may be well suited to the risk for some, as premiums tend to be heightened before known events, such as earnings.

A unifying theme for stocks that satisfy my criteria of offering a 1% or greater premium for a weekly option at a strike price outside of the boundary defined by the implied move calculation is underlying volatility. While already heightened due to impending earnings release and the uncertainty that accompanies the event, stocks that typically satisfy the criteria I’ve selected are already quite volatile.

While the implied volatilities may sometimes appear to be high, they are often consistent with past history and such moves are certainly within the realm of probability. That knowledge should serve as a warning that the unthinkable can, and does, happen.

While individuals can set their own risk-reward parameters, I’m very satisfied with a weekly 1% ROI.  The other part of the equation, the risk, is less quantitative. It is merely a question of whether the necessary strike level to achieve the reward is above or below the lower boundary defined by the stock’s implied move. 

I prefer to be below that lower boundary.

Among the companies that I am considering this coming week are Apple (AAPL), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Comcast (CMCSA), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Facebook (FB), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Microsoft (MSFT), Pandora (P) and VMWare (VMW).

The basis for making any of these trades is entirely predicated upon what may be an inefficiency between the option premiums and the implied price movement. I give no consideration to fundamental nor technical issues and would prefer not to be in a position to take ownership of shares in the event of an adverse price move.

My preference when selling put contracts is to do so when shares have already been falling in price in advance of earnings. Given the flourish with which this past week ended that is a bit more difficult, as a number of the shares listed had sizable gains in the session, recovering from the previous day’s drops.

While I would prefer not to take ownership of shares, the investor must be prepared to do so or to attempt to manage the options contract, such as rolling it forward, if assignment appears inevitable.

During periods of low volatility it may sometimes be difficult to do so and achieve a meaningful additional premium without going out further in time than you may have envisioned, however.

The table above may be used as a guide for determining which of these selected companies meets risk-reward parameters. Re-assessments need to be made as prices and, therefore, strike prices and their premiums may change. Additionally, the target ROI may warrant being changed as time erodes. For example, if the trade is executed with only 4 days of time remaining on the contract the 1% ROI may find its equivalent in a 0.8% return.

While the list can be used prospectively there may also be occasion to consider put sales following earnings in those cases where shares have reacted in an extremely negative fashion to earnings or to guidance. If you believe the response was an over-reaction to the news there may then be opportunity to sell put options to take advantage of the negative sentiment that may be reflected in option premiums.

In such a case the sale of a put is a bullish sentiment and there may be opportunity to make that expression a profitable one as the over-reaction faces its own correction. My recent observation, however, is that it seems to be taking longer and longer to see some stocks mount meaningful recoveries after earnings disappointments, which I interpret as a bearish indicator for the market as a whole, as risk aversion is a priority.

Recently, I’ve spent some considerable time in managing some positions that had greater than anticipated price moves, including taking assignment and then managing the  position through the sale of call options.

Ultimately, regardless of the timing of an earnings related trade there is always opportunity when large price movements are anticipated, especially if those worst and best case scenarios aren’t realized.

Best of all, if the extreme scenarios are realized a nimble trader may have opportunity to create even more opportunities and allow the position to accumulate re
turns while doing so.

 

Week in Review – July 14 – 18, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 14 – 18,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 3 11 1  / 0 0  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 14 – 18, 2014

New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.5% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.9%

The market was everywhere this past week, going nowhere, going lower and going higher. While doing that it did confirm its resilience, but really gave no clue of its further character.

The resilience tells me about being true to its past. I want to know about the future.

After a horrid day on Thursday, as a result of competing terrible international stories, the market made a very credible comeback, despite the fact that it is again faced with a weekend of uncertainty, when wiser men of ages past would have lightened their holdings.

New positions, again only a handful of them this week,  performed in a mediocre fashion until some recovery today. They managed to climb&nb
sp;1.1% higher while the overall market was  able to rescue itself from a weekly loss with today’s showing. The overall market ended 0.6% higher on an unadjusted basis and 0.2% higher on an adjusted basis.

Existing positions did well and outpaced the market, in part due to the ability and good luck of being able to roll so many positions over this week. They beat the market by 0.2%

With only one assignment this week performance of positions closed in 2014 didn’t change very much, but they continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by  67.2%. 

Coming off of last week this one was looking as if it would be one of significant disappointment.

Last week had something for everyone and without the need to spend too much cash in getting there. The volume of rollovers and new call position trades more than made up for the lack of new positions being opened.

As they say when you bring your cash to the bank door deposit, no one really cares about the white powder on the bills.

That’s how I feel about the weekly income stream. I don’t really care how its generated, but if I could fantasize, it would be generated without the need to open new positions. I would love to just trade the same stocks over and over again and sometimes you can do just that, but it takes a market that isn’t going straight up.

This week there was very little trading to be done and very little to find positive in the way the market reacted during its trading. More than the mood was the reality that without trades there is no accumulation of income and securing of value from positions, which essentially are otherwise worthless unless sold at a profit or delivering dividends.

The expected reaction to the unexpected double helping of bad news on Thursday didn’t do anything to help put positions into good standing for rollovers or assignments. So it was really looking like a week with little to show for the passage of time, which we know as option sellers, has definite value.

But just as unexpected was the fall on Thursday, so too was the rise on Friday.

If you’re not a believer in serendipity, that’s alright, but the sequence of events worked out nicely, as long as you don’t think about the human tragedies.

After the unexpected happened on Thursday, I had very little expectation of being able to accomplish much with existing positions and was fully expecting a week with lots of expired and unassigned positions.


While I would have liked more assignments by the time the final closing bell rang on Friday, and if only I had a little faith that the rally would be sustained I would have allowed more assignments, somehow it  still all worked out.

So when it’s all said and done that leaves a fair number of positions set to expire next week and some available cash for some new purchases. There are worse problems to have, I suppose.

With the August 2014 cycle set to begin and already having so many expirations next week, there may be reason to consider expanded weekly options for any new positions, where they are available.

In an ideal world next week would be similar to the past one and this week.

It would be great to again get a nice number of rollovers, maybe even sell some new cover on uncovered positions and see some assignments, as well.

If the market stays steady or moves just mildly higher, that could be a good possibility.

If, however, it moves much lower, there may finally be a reason to consider going on a little bit of a spending spree, as its been a long time since we’ve done that sort of thing.

Still, I’d rather keep my money safe, as long as I could still find a way to generate some income to justify all of this.

Serendipity helps.



 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   FAST, GPS, LO

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleHFC, LO, RIG, RIG

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BMY (8/1), C (8/1), CHK (8/1), CHK (8/8), WFM (8/8)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: FAST, LB

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  DOW (7/25), HFC (7/25), HFC (7/25)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  BMY

Calls Expired:   none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsCHK (7/14 $0.09)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  FAST (7/23 $0.25)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, FCX, JCP, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – July 18, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 18, 2014 (8:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The possible outcomes today include:

 

Assignments:  RIG

Rollovers:  BMY, BMY, HFC, FAST, LB, RIG

Expirations:  CHK, LO

Because of relatively high premiums on some expiring positions that could be rolled over, I may wait and allow them to expire instead, in the hope that new call options can be quickly sold early next week, for such positions as LB, LO, FAST and possibly HFC.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 17, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 17, 2014 (Close)

The one thing that is probably not factored into many people’s equation for market direction is the completely unexpected.

Today, with the likely downing of a passenger aircraft over the Ukraine – Russian border, the unexpected happened and you saw some predictable responses in stocks, bonds and precious metals, although the responses weren’t really that large in relative terms.

Wherever the truth may be, the initial responses will have to wait, perhaps only overnight, to know whether they were valid and warranted a stock sell-off.

So tomorrow may be interesting, as news also comes of Israle’s announcement that there would be an expansion of operations against Hamas.

By comparison, yesterday’s big news seems so quaint, as the banks took a quick break from earnings reports, until this morning’s positive report from Morgan Stanley. That news centered around Rupert Murdoch threatening/offering/seeking to buy Time Warner.

The analysis of the situation seems to point out that doing the right thing may have bad consequences for some.

In this case it was a question of relatively new Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes doing the right thing by spinning off or selling non-core assets changing the company from a media conglomerate to a pure entertainment business.

That’s what may have made it more appealing for someone like Rupert Murdoch during an era when the likes of Comcast and Verizon are getting bigger and bigger. It becomes a battle of survival between the owners of the content and those that get the content to consumers willing to pay ever large increasing amounts for content.

In the short term mergers and acquisitions fuel the market, but they are also cause for some concern, as someone so wisely posted yesterday, looking back at some of Murdoch’s previous high profile buy-outs.

At what may be a $100 billion dollar deal this one is certainly a high profile deal and is definitely reminiscent of the timing of the ill-fated Time-AOL deal.

In the meantime after some decent gains yesterday the European markets were again weak, as they were last week following concern ov
er a Portuguese bank.

This time there’s not much identifiable to account for the weakness, but it’s looked to work its way to our shores as the pre-open trading, while improving from its early lows, was on track to erase yesterday’s gains.

Once the bell rang it was clear that today wasn’t going to be a day for more records. What wasn’t clear was the tragic surprise in store for everyone.

With next week’s options becoming available for those with weekly options but not expanded weekly options, some additional rollover opportunities began with today’s trading and hopefully some will still open up before tomorrow’s close, in an effort to make something worthwhile this week. The late day sell off today

While last week was exceptionally busy without having added too many new positions, so far this week is a polar opposite, with scant trades in any category. While there are still positions where rollovers or assignments can still potentially occur it would  have been nice to have a continuation of yesterday’s market and some continued upside to make the potential become a reality.

Even though it’s difficult to keep up with a market that moves more than 1% higher in any given week, sometimes those moves are necessary to be able to execute the kind of trades to keep the cash flowing. What isn’t necessary is a sudden and unforeseen reversal of good fortunes.

Lately the market, while not setting the world on fire, even while still setting new record highs, has continued to be incredibly resilient to any challenges, so overseas weakness and Murdoch’s profligacy may simply be momentary speed bumps. It’s the unknown, though, that can be a far bigger hurdle.

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 17, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 17, 2014 (8:15 AM)

Yesterday’s big news, as the banks took a quick break from earnings reports, until this morning’s positive report from Morgan Stanley, was the news that Rupert Murdoch was seeking to buy Time Warner.

The analysis of the situation seems to point out that doing the right thing may have bad consequences for some.

In this case it was a question of relatively new Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes doing the right thing by spinning off or selling non-core assets changing the company from a media conglomerate to a pure entertainment business.

That’s what may have made it more appealing for someone like Rupert Murdoch during an era when the likes of Comcast and Verizon are getting bigger and bigger. It becomes a battle of survival between the owners of the content andf those that get the content to consumers willing to pay ever large increasing amounts for content.

In the short term mergers and acquisitions fuel the market, but they are also cause for some concern, as someone so wisely posted yesterday, looking back at some of Murdoch’s previous high profile buyo-uts.

At what may be a $100 billion dollar deal this one is certainly a high profile deal and is definitely reminiscent of the timing of the ill-fated Time-AOL deal.

In the meantime after some decent gains yesterday the European markets are again weak, as they were last week following concern over a Portuguese bank.

This time there’s not much identifiable for the weakness, but it’s looking to work its way to our shores as the pre-open trading, while improving from its early lows, was on track to erase yesterday’s gains.

With next week’s options become available for those with weekly options but not expanded weekly options, some additional rollover opportunities begin with today’s trading and hopefully some will open up before tomorrow’s close, in an effort to make something worthwhile this week.

While last week was exceptionally busy without having added too many new positions, so far this week is a polar opposite, with scant trades in any category. While there are still positions where rollovers or assignments can still potentially occur it would be nice to hav
e a continuation of yesterday’s market and some continued upside to make the potential become a reality.

Even though it’s difficult to keep up with a market that moves more than 1% higher in any given week, sometimes those moves are necessary to be able to execute the kind of trades to keep the cash flowing.

Lately the market, while not setting the world on fire, even while still setting new record highs, has continued to be incredibly resilient to any challenges, so overseas weakness and Murdoch’s profligacy may simply be momentary speed bumps.

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 16, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 16, 2014 (Close)

While today was Day 2 of Janet Yellen’s testimony, which was fairly tepid in response to very tame questioning, the big news to start the morning was more merger and acquisition news.

It was odd listening to an interview with Gerald Levin, who in 1999-2000 was at the center of the Time Earner – AOL merger, which happened to occur on the precipice of what became known as the “dot com bubble.”

He was now commenting on a proposed buyout of Time Warner by Rupert Murdoch’s Twenty First Century Fox. At this point no one really cares about the eventual outcome of that merger, but rather what that merger represented in the scope of everything going on at that time and era.

It may be hard to draw a parallel to that era as right now there’s really no singularly spectacularly performing sector that could be called a bubble, unless it’s all a bubble. Nearly a generation ago it was obviously technology and the internet that was going wild, but the same just doesn’t exist these days.

While everything is at or near relative high points and everything seems expensive, it’s a far stretch to think that the current market is in bubble territory.

The early speculation is that talk of a buyout will spur others to start looking for their own synergies, so that more of the same can be expected. The same companies that received a boost when the Supreme Court ruled against Aereo could now be expected to more overtly look for those synergies.

The funny thing is that when you do start seeing an increase in merger and acquisition activity it is rarely something done at or near market bottoms.

Imagine the opportunities to pick up companies at fire sale prices back in 2008 and 2009. How many of those happened when it really seemed to make sense?

Instead, that kind of activity, just like IPO activity comes when prices are high.

That’s certainly understandable for the beneficiaries of IPOs, but it doesn’t make too much sense for buyouts and mergers, except when you realize that it’s other people’s money that’s being spent.

There’s rarely reason to be concerned about value when it’s not yours and it’s easy to be incredibly indifferent to getting value. It’s all about the getting
and trying to stay ahead at any price, even if that price will turn out to be a noose around your neck.

The news this morning seemed to be the catalyst sending the pre-open futures nicely higher. It would have been interesting to see Janet Yellen, who did discuss, in a limited fashion,  stock market valuation yesterday, asked questions about merger and IPO activity and whether that represents any cause for concern.

That question and its answer could be as explosive as when Greenspan commented about “froth” and “irrational exuberance.”

While the market looked to open higher this morning my only hope was that some of that move adds to some gains for the week, because it has otherwise been a very, very quiet trading week. In sharp contrast to last week.there have so far been no real activity in generating income from option sales, with the exception of some DOH trades of Holly Frontier.

If the market does generate some more strength this week any opportunity to sell some more contracts on existing positions will be more likely that looking to add new positions, at this point. Any new positions are likely to look at expiration dates beginning with the August 2014 cycle, which begins next week.

With monthly and weekly contract expiration just 2 days away, the process of looking for rollovers begins today and there may at least be some opportunity to generate some of the weekly income that’s be really missing this week. Hopefully that will be coupled with some assignments so that the August cycle can get off to a good start.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 16, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 16, 2014 (9:00 AM)

While today will be Day 2 of Janet Yellen’s testimony, which was fairly tepid in response to very tame questioning, the big news to start the morning is more merger and acquisition news.

It was odd listening to an interview with Gerald Levin, who in 1999-2000 was at the center of the Time Earner – AOL merger, which happened to occur on the precipice of what became known as the “dot com bubble.”

He was now commenting on a proposed buyout of Time Warner by Rupert Murdoch’s Twenty First Century Fox. At this point no one really cares about the eventual outcome of that merger, but rather what that merger represented in the scope of everything going on at that time and era.

It may be hard to draw a parallel to that era as right now there’s really no singularly spectacularly performing sector that could be called a bubble, unless it’s all a bubble. Nearly a generation ago it was obviously technology and the internet that was going wild, but the same just doesn’t exist these days.

While everything is at or near relative high points and everything seems expensive, it’s a far stretch to think that the current market is in bubble territory.

The early speculation is that talk of a buyout will spur others to start looking for their own synergies, so that more of the same can be expected. The same companies that received a boost when the Supreme Court ruled against Aereo could now be expected to more overtly look for those synergies.

The funny thing is that when you do start seeing an increase in merger and acquisition activity it is rarely something done at or near market bottoms.

Imagine the opportunities to pick up companies at fire sale prices back in 2008 and 2009. How many of those happened when it really seemed to make sense?

Instead, that kind of activity, just like IPO activity comes when prices are high.

That’s certainly understandable for the beneficiaries of IPOs, but it doesn’t make too much sense for buyouts and mergers, except when you realize that it’s other people’s money that’s being spent.

There’s rarely reason to be concerned about value when it’s not yours and it’s easy to be incredibly indifferent to getting value. It’s all about the getting and trying to stay ahead at any price, even if that price will turn out to be a noose around your neck.

The news this morning seems to be the catalyss sending the pre-open futures nicely higher. It will be interesting to see whether or not Janet Yellen, who did discuss, in a limited fashion,  stock market valuation yesterday, will be asked questions about merger and IPO activity and whether that represents any cause for concern.

That question and its answer could be as explosive as when Greenspan commented about “froth” and “irrational exuberance.”

While the market looks to open higher this morning my only hope is that some of that move adds to some gains for the week, but it has otherwise been a very, very quiet trading week. In sharp contrast to last week.there have so far been no real activity in generating income from option sales, with the exception of some DOH trades of Holly Frontier.

If the market does generate some more strength this morning any opportunity to sell some more contracts on existing positions will be more likely that looking to add new positions, at this point. Any new positions are likely to look at expiration dates beginning with the August 2014 cycle, which begins next week.

With monthly and weekly contract expiration just 3 days away, the process of looking for rollovers begins today and there may at least be some opportunity to generate some of the weekly income that’s be really missing this week. Hopefully that will be coupled with some assignments so that the August cycle can get off to a good start.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 15, 2014 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 15, 2014 (Close)

For the next two days Janet Yellen will be providing some testimony in front of congressional banking and finance committees.

Today no one really cared about what she said, it was about what she didn’t say, but had appeared in printed comments regarding her opinion of stock pricing of some”smaller”  bio-technology and social media stocks as being over valued.

Based on her latest two rounds of public statements it has been pretty clear that anyone with money who was inclined to invest would be better off in stocks as their vehicle as opposed to alternatives, such as bonds. However, today’s comments gave some room for pause, at least in two sectors.

For now, though, at least until the first potential real newsworthy words coming from Yellen’s comments, the story is again on the financials, as more good news is awaited the opening bell and did bring the market higher until the comments from Yellen dragged some of the life out of the decent rise.

With JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reporting earnings this morning that were in line with the previous day’s report from Citigroup, there’s reason to believe that the economy may be heating up. When the financial sector does well it’s not a far stretch to imagine other sectors doing well, although that’s not always a given.

Over the past 4-6 quarters there have been a couple of earnings seasons that started with the financial sector reporting better than expected earnings but with no follow through from other market sectors.

Sooner or later, though, the rest of the market has to catch up to good fortunes in the banking world.

Goldman Sachs, for example, actually reported revenues that were a $1 billion  more than expected. Additionally, both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs seem to have indicated that their own fortunes significantly improved during the latter part of the past quarter. For its part, Johnson and Johnson also reported this morning and their revenues came in $600 million higher than expected.

Yesterday’s strong gain was fueled by Citigroup’s results. This morning the impact of the early reports weren’t as obvious, although they did turn the pre-open around from mildly negative to mildly positive.

Yesterday’s triple digit gain came close to setting another record on the DJIA, although the broader market didn’t perform quite as well. It was good enough fo
r most people, however.

Today we were again close to setting another new high, but also again, the broader market trailed the DJIA by a considerable margin.

Yesterday I tried to get some trades in Bed Bath and Beyond, Cypress Semiconductor and even Riverbed Technology. However, while there was a fair amount of volatility with share pricing yesterday, representing give and take between buyers and sellers, despite the fact that the actual indexes were virtually unchanged during the day, there was very little such give and take in the option markets.

What that meant was that even as share prices changed the option prices didn’t follow along, making it a challenge to get trades done, as the “Net Debit” prices couldn’t be realized. In all likelihood that meant that those in the option markets weren’t convinced by yesterday’s trading. Buyers and sellers just couldn’t come to agreement.

That was fairly frustrating.

Generally I don’t mind being the one to give in on pricing because I’m motivated to get the trade done.

However, when volatility is so low and the premiums are, as well, that kind of giving in makes it harder to justify the trade on an ROI basis, especially as the market is sitting at such heights.

When looking at charts of so many potential positions it certainly looks as if there’s more room to drop than there is to climb, even though the potential climb is unlimited. With the small premiums, if using them for downside price protection they don’t offer very much to counter the risk. However, if using the premiums for income, then it’s a little easier to justify the transaction, but still not as easy as even a few months ago.

Today will be yet another day with cash available to spend and a willing, but not reckless spender, looking for an opportunity.

I was hoping that the two sides of the transaction equation could come together better today than they did yesterday, but there really wasn’t too much reason to test the market’s desire to transact on much of anything, today.

The one new position trade in Lorillard oddly disintegrated as the day went on.

Prior to conformation of the buyout of Lorillard by Reynolds American the market seemed to price the transaction at $65.

Today it expressed disappointment that the deal was priced at about $68, based on the details of the deal which included about 0.29 shares of Reynolds stock.

I still don’t understand how Lorillard shares plummeted and then fell even further. None of the issues being discussed later in the day as potential negatives were newly discovered, yet suddenly they have become issues.

I don’t understand, but I wouldn’t mind holding shares, as Reynolds believes that the deal will be completed sometime in the first half of 2015 and they have already committed to the cash portion of the deal, as well as maintaining the dividend at its current rate.

Unless something wild and crazy pops up over the course of the next day, like the world discovering that smoking is bad for you, this is one large drop that I expect to correct itself fairly quickly.

For now we’ll just wait and see what Janet Yellen will say tomorrow that will get tongues wagging.