Week in Review – March 10 -14, 2014


Option to Profit Week in Review
March 10 – 14, 2014
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Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 10 – 14, 2014

New purchases lagged the time adjusted  S&P 500 this week by 0.3% and matched the unadjusted index, both languishing for the week.

The market showed an adjusted loss for the week of 1.6% and adjusted loss of 2.0% for the week, while new positions lost 2.0%.

Existing positions performed surprisingly well actually outperforming the market by 0.4%, but they, too lost ground. Just not as much.

That may be the best I can say about things this week.

Although, for positions positions closed in 2014, performance exceeded that of the S&P 500 by 1.5%. They were up 3.3% out-performing the market by 80%. Whereas I know that this figure will come down at some point, I don’t mind being able to continually look at it in an attempt to make me feel good about things while I can.

I knew there was something that I didn’t like about this week.

Besides the obvious, it turns out that this was the first week in which every day was a loser since May 2012.

That was also the last time we had a meaningful correction, although even that didn’t meet the usual definition.

This wasn’t a very good week in so many ways, but adding far too many positions into the “uncovered” category is always the worst, from my perspective. Stocks go up and stocks go down, but a week in which a stock isn’t generating some kind of income is a lost week and is never truly re-captured.

Additionally, more new positions were added than old positions were assigned, going counter to my goal of slowly reducing the total number of positions managed in the portfolio.

And let’s not forget, despite out-performing the market, there was still a net loss for the week.

No wonder my wife won’t talk to me.

On another positive note,  because I do have to occasionally be delusional, there was a nice flow of dividends again this week and at least some money will be returned to the coffers following assignment of an all too small number of positions.

The odd part is that I’m actually reasonably bullish about next week and have more than the usual number of potential stock selections on my preliminary list.

Part of the optimism certainly isn’t related to events, but it is related to the charts that I pretend to rarely refer to for guidance.

In this case, after some initial glances that will likely call for a bit more in-depth thought, is the chart of the Volatility Index, which may be indicating a temporary downswing in momentum and markets.

More on that in the Weekend Update, if warranted.

While there wasn’t too much positive for the week there were at least some opportunities to roll over some positions. However, as I discussed earlier in the week much of my own activity was focused on the sale of puts and I may look to increase that activity as part of regular Trading Alerts, as long as there appears to be some thought that there may be over-sold conditions in the development phase, as I believe we are currently trapped within.

That explains the Trading Alert sale of Twitter puts late in the session on Friday.

With a little bit of cash generated and still some uncertainty related to external events I don’t plan on plunging into markets on Monday morning. However, I think there may still be reasonable opportunities, as long as minor details like New York State Attorney General’s Office choosing to investigate any of my selections doesn’t occur too often.

On another potentially positive note and getting back to the topic of volatility, there has been a rise this week, as you would expect when markets are dropping.

That kind of increased volatility is a better environment for DOH Trades, to be certain and as there are uncovered positions there is more opportunity to look for those kind of trades, but again remembering that they tend to require greater vigilance and a little bit of prayer, too, such as may have helped Target to get back below $60.

Today that volatility worked a little bit against us as the premiums to buy back options in attempts to roll over reflected increased expectations for continued drops even during the remaining hours of today’s session. However, next week’s premiums were already beginning to show some increases related to increased uncertainty.

With a dozen position set to expire next week and seeing increased premiums may bring opportunity to finally return to the strategy of staggering expirations by time in order to get some better diversification and protection from a sudden movement in either direction.

In the meantime we can just sit back and see whether any events unfold this weekend that will set the tone for us on Monday morning. Although the market closed the week with a loss, the fact that the loss was really pretty mild going into such a weekend ewither indicates that traders are delusional or there’s little being signaled to fuel worries.

Either one of those is fine by me.














This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  C, CHK, GM, MPS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   CHK, MSFT, WFM

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  MOS, TGT

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone


Put contracts sold and still open: TWTR

Put contracts expired: none

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  COH, KSS, SBUX

Calls Expired: AIG, APC, C, FDO, IP, VZ

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  APC (3/10 $0.18), KSS (3/10 $0.39), NEM (3/11 $0.15), HFC (3/12 $0.30), FDO (3/12 $0.31), GM (3/14 $0.30)






For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, AIG, APC, C, CSCO, CLF, COP, DRI, FCXFDO,  IP, JCP,  LULU, MCP, MOS,  MRO, NEM, PBR, PM, RIG,  VZ, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.