Category: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 13, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This morning’s early futures trading, before JP Morgan Chase releases its earnings report to really get the season underway is still nicely higher.

The DJIA futures were flirting with another triple digit gain following yesterday’s 170+ point move.

This morning, the futures are higher even as oil futures are a little bit lower.

Yesterday stocks followed oil higher on the report that both Saudi Arabia and Russia were going to agree to oil production cutbacks at the end of the week.

That rumor first started more than a month ago and was more than rumor.

It was true, until Iran messed up everyone’s strategy by not agreeing to go along with the shared burden of reducing production in an attempt to drive prices higher.

That shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise to anyone, but it was.

Instead, when rational thought finally set in, the strong gains gave way to strong losses.

We’ll see how the intent this time around will work out, but so far this morning, the market is accepting it on face value and adding on to gains,  The gains for the week could end up being considerable if oil continues its climb higher in anticipation of a real agreement.

Yesterday’s gain came after the market gave up the entirety of a similar sized gain and this morning’s early trading could be representing some real pent up buying fever.

With low expectation, JP Morgan Chase reports earnings and could set the tone.

Generally, if the financial sector does poorly, so too does the rest of the market.

If the financials do well, the market doesn’t necessarily follow along, but at this still early stage of economic expansion, good news for big banks should be good news for most everyone.

I don’t know which direction the market may take, but I hope that it does continue higher, just not in these kind of leaps and bounds.

At a time when we may be returning to an era when 10% moves are not uncommon, these large daily moves make it easier to see those large cumulative moves.

We’ve already had 3 of those in the past 6 months and more could be in store.

I’m still open to the idea of adding positions, but now would likely be looking at the following week for expiration.

Otherwise, it would just be nice to make a trade or two

Daily Market Update – April 12, 2016 (Close)

You probably shouldn’t even try to explain yesterday and even though there was an explanation for today, I’ll believe it when I see it.

As far as yesterday goes, there’s usually a reason for a gap move higher or lower, but yesterday’s higher open didn’t really have too much behind it.

So it may have been a little understandable why the move higher couldn’t be sustained.

But then came the rebound that restored much of what was lost.

That may have been hard to explain, as well.

That rebound didn’t get quite as high as the original gap move, so maybe some technicians may have soured at that point.

Maybe that explains the final leg lower to end the day seeing the market take a small loss.

Who knows.

This morning the futures were headed mildly higher as we awaited tomorrow’s big first earnings test.

That test is the beginning of financial season. Alcoa doesn’t really count anymore. Now it’s JP Morgan Chase that sets the season off to the races and expectations are really low.

I didn’t expect too much action yesterday, but it was an active day, just not for me.

It was safer just sitting and watching, while looking for any opportunity to manage existing positions.

I thought today would be more of the same.

What happened, was what has  been just about the only reliable catalyst for all of 2016 kicking in.

It was another large move higher by oil and the market followed, never really considering giving the gain a second thought.

What made me give it a second thought, while I did enjoyed seeing my shares move higher, was the news that the oil move was based upon.

It was the same news from about a month ago when there was a report that there would be a cut in oil production agreed to by OPEC and non-OPEC members.

Oil and stocks soared on that news, until someone realized that Iran wasn’t in agreement, just as they were ramping up to really start bringing product to market.

When the realization hit, oil and stocks reversed course.

Today, the rumor was that Saudi Arabia and Russia will agree to large cutbacks this coming Sunday.

As I said, I’ll believe it when I see it and I would expect Iran to announce it’s rushing in to fill any void left by those 2 big players, as if everyone else won’t be cheating, as well.

So today’s gain was really nice, but nothing would be better than some better than expected earnings reports starting tomorrow morning.

Daily Market Update – April 12, 2016 (7:30 AM)

You probably shouldn’t even try to explain yesterday.

There’s usually a reason for a gap move higher or lower, but yesterday’s higher open didn’t really have too much behind it.

So it may have been a little understandable why the move higher couldn’t be sustained.

But then came the rebound that restored much of what was lost.

That may have been hard to explain, as well.

That rebound didn’t get quite as high as the original gap move, so maybe some technicians may have soured at that point.

Maybe that explains the final leg lower to end the day seeing the market take a small loss.

Who knows

This morning the futures are headed mildly higher as we await tomorrow’s big test.

That test is the beginning of financial season. Alcoa doesn’t really count anymore. Now it’s JP Morgan Chase that sets the season off to the races and expectations are really low.

I didn’t expect too much action yesterday, but it was an active day, just not for me.

It was safer just sitting and watching, while looking for any opportunity to manage existing positions.

I think today will be the same.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused.

Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback.

All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher.

So that was fun, I guess.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back.

This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason.

I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings.

A reason would be nice.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused.

Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback.

All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher.

So that was fun, I guess.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back.

This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason.

I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings.

A reason would be nice.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious.

This morning has the futures pointing higher, but maybe in need of a reason.

I may need more than that to loosen up some purse strings.

Daily Market Update – April 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  CSCO (4/4 $0.26), GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.13)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday we were back to the usual.

It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher.

The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks.

The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes.

All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher.

This morning’s futures were setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil was beginning the morning unchanged.

So that catalyst for a move wasn’t in the equation yet for today and futures traders didn’t seem to see anything substantive this week to get terribly excited about.

That definitely sums it up for me.

That also summed it up for the market today, as oil did turn lower and stocks did give up the previous day’s gains and more.

At least there was an opportunity to rollover the one expiring position. At this point, I think that i would rather be a serial rollover trader than being faced with assignment.

That way, even stock mediocrity can end up with great returns and without the added challenge of then having to find replacement sources of income.

At this point, I would have been happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season.

After today, next week and the beginning of earnings season can’t come soon enough.

At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues.

If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy.

But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case.

I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue.

With just a day remaining, there’s now even less chance of me opening a new position this week. With that rollover already having been accomplished, i have no great aspirations for tomorrow, but definitely wouldn’t say no to a day that erases today’s poor performance.

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Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday we were back to the usual.

It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher.

The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks.

The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes.

All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher.

This morning’s futures are setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil is beginning the morning unchanged.

So that catalyst for a move isn’t in the equation yet for today, but futures traders may see nothing substantive this week to get terribly excited about.

That definitely sums it up for me.

At this point, I would be happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season.

At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues.

If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy.

But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case.

I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue.

With just 2 days remaining, there’s not much chance of me opening a new position this week, but I hope that yesterday’s strength in oil doesn’t get wasted, as I’d like to see an assignment or rollover of the solitary position for the week.

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Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (Close)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release there may have been some possibility of a glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there wasn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I didn’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I did consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

As the market eventually found some footing with oil up 5% and the FOMC minutes not divulging any great hawkish sentiment, I just watched. Sometimes it’s alright just to go for the ride.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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