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Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close) Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium. Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon. That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy. But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing. Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when. I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner. This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused. Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback. All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher. So that was fun, I guess. The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days. The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market. I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail. Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions. Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry. With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities. But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back. This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason. I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings. A reason would be nice. |
