Category: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 10, 2014 (8:30 AM)

After yesterday’s really unexpected gain, that was simply a re-affirmation of what everyone should have already known, that Janet Yellen was more dove than hawk, it looks like today may be a day of rest.

Worries about low inflation seemed to be just the thing that the market wanted to hear and confirmed that the Federal Reserve would continue to be a friend. Of course, when you come to rely on someone or something so much you also set yourself up for disappointment. It’s sort of like the crash after a sugar high.

But as with most days whatever signals may be sent early in the morning before the official bell rings may not have much bearing on what’s to come. Lately there has really been a dearth of substantive news and the markets have been reacting in fairly random ways, certainly not following any patterns or themes.

If you listen to the talking heads you can distinguish this recent period from others in the split between those thinking we’re going higher versus those believing that we’re bound to go in the opposite direction. Contrast that to times when there is a preponderance of opinion in one direction or another.

In the latter cases it often pays to be a contrarian, but when everyone seems to disagree about what happens next the market seems to make  geniuses out of everybody, depending on what day it is. Alternating ups and downs with much fury signifying nothing.

Ultimately, if I could choose what kind of a market I would like to be trading in, this is the one. Markets that go up and down, just as individual stocks that go up and down, yet don’t advance or decline very much on a net basis are absolutely the best to be owning stocks if you actively manage them and capitalize on their  perceived value to others.

With more new purchases this week in quite a while I would like to see the week come to an end with either a lot of assignments or at least rollovers, but that’s not much different from any other week.

What is different is that I’m anxious to see the same thing happen again next week although I’d still prefer to see myself better diversified in terms of contract expiration dates.

But that too will happen again as it seems that volatility has been experiencing some kind of cyclic pattern in the past couple of years having spikes, valleys, mini-spikes, valleys and spikes again over a 4 to 6 month span.

Just about a month ago we had one of those mini-spikes and have since descended into the valley.

If the spike begins to return there will be better opportunity to find forward week options more easily and also more opportunity to make DOH trades, which also are keyed to volatility. If that is to be the case that would also mean some market decline is ahead, as increased volatility is usually accompanied by a declining market.

It’s just an example of how you have to take the good and take the bad, as long as the net outcome is good.

On the flip side, if volatility has to be low, as long as the higher market moves aren’t happening without your participation it can just be nice going along for that ride.

But what fun is a ride without some volatility? Those roller coaster photos would never be very exciting if there was no plunge in the making.

Daily Market Update – April 9, 2014 (Close)

Another seemingly flat morning, which basically means nothing and that was certainly the case today and even more so in the latter half of the afternoon as the market closed at its impressive highs.

The late Mark Haines, of CNBC, used to observe that the pre-opening market tended to have very little in common with what occurred subsequently. He often would say that on mornings when there was a decided move in either direction and so often he was right.

Lately the pre-open hasn’t been much of a barometer, In fact, the first 90 minutes of trading haven’t been a very good indicator, either. For anyone looking for themes or patterns there haven’t been many lately, other than the poor predictive capability of the first hour of trading.

Maybe with Alcoa kicking off earnings season last night the consideration of basic fundamentals, especially earnings, will become the theme. The only thing is that was precisely the same kind of hope over the past couple of earnings seasons, as well, and that sort of thing only lasted a week or so. Once the financials were done with their reports the rest didn’t really matter.

Today’s early morning trading appeared fairly listless which isn’t altogether unusual, as this afternoon brings another FOMC minutes release. Most traders don’t really want to commit themselves in a significant way before any major announcement or event, especially if there’s any unknown component that may be released. So they sit and wait, maybe make a few incidental trades here and there, but mostly wait and then suddenly spring into action as the fastest of the systems runs its initial algorithm on the words themselves.

Maybe it’s just another of those signs of getting older, but it seems as if those monthly releases are coming much more quickly than at a monthly pace. Still, the one due today has gotten unusually little attention or mention.

While there wasn’t not likely to be much new in the release that hasn’t stopped knee jerk and delayed reactions alike as the words are parsed and interpreted for meanings that were never intended.

Today’s FOMC release was worth waiting for, but it did seem as if traders had some sense of, if not good news, then at least no news, as the market opened stronger than the futures would have indicated and built on those gains going into the release. Once the FOMC statement was released the markets just added further and didn’t waver or have any second thoughts, as they so frequently do.

While I didn’t expect much in the way of personal activity yesterday I expect even less today, although I wouldn’t mind any other opportunities to sell more call options on uncovered positions and begin looking forward to next week, which already marks the end of the monthly option cycle, which seems to also have come very quickly.

Because earnings reports are now a factor it would be nice to at least squeeze a few more cents out of positions while awaiting the news and using some forward weeks, whose premiums are enhanced a little by the uncertainty of earnings, to give some time cushion in the event of adverse reaction to the
news ahead.

Looking forward to next week starts, as usual, with hoping for the rollover or assignment of as many positions as possible and once again, this week has too many positions with contracts set to expire.

As in recent past weeks the holdings aren’t terribly well diversified across the calendar so once again there’s a fair amount riding on the next couple of days. That’s not a position that I like being in and continue to be anxious to see a rise in volatility, as long as it waits until next Monday to begin in earnest.

Just to be clear, markets usually fall when volatility is rising, so let’s get through this week first and see those rollovers and assignments happen. Then the volatility can start to rise and bring with it better prices for all of that reserve cash to be put to use.

If only it was all that easy.

PS: For those interested in something a little different, take a look at “Playing Leapfrog with MolyCorp” which explores another put related strategy that seeks to limit risk and enhance reward, especially with risky kind of positions.

Daily Market Update – April 9, 2014 (8:30 AM)

Another seemingly flat morning, which basically means nothing.

The late Mark Haines, of CNBC, used to observe that the pre-opening market tended to have very little in common with what occurred subsequently. He often would say that on mornings when there was a decided move in either direction and so often he was right.

Lately the pre-open hasn’t been much of a barometer, In fact, the first 90 minutes of trading haven’t been a very good indicator, either. For anyone looking for themes or patterns there haven’t been many lately, other than the poor predictive capability of the first hour of trading.

Maybe with Alcoa kicking off earnings season last night the consideration of basic fundamentals, especially earnings, will become the theme. The only thing is that was precisely the same kind of hope over the past couple of earnings seasons, as well, and that sort of thing only lasted a week or so. Once the financials were done with their reports the rest didn’t really matter.

Today’s early morning trading appears fairly listless which isn’t altogether unusual, as this afternoon brings another FOMC minutes release. Most traders don’t really want to commit themselves in a significant way before any major announcement or event, especially if there’s any unknown component that may be released. So they sit and wait, maybe make a few incidental trades here and there, but mostly wait and then suddenly spring into action as the fastest of the systems runs its initial algorithm on the words themselves.

Maybe it’s just another of those signs of getting older, but it seems as if those monthly releases are coming much more quickly than at a monthly pace. Still, the one due today has gotten unusually little attention or mention.

While there’s not likely to be much new in the release that hasn’t stopped knee jerk and delayed reactions alike as the words are parsed and interpreted for meanings that were never intended.

While I didn’t expect much in the way of personal activity yesterday I expect even less today, although I wouldn’t mind any other opportunities to sell more call options on uncovered positions and begin looking forward to next week, which already marks the end of the monthly option cycle, which seems to also have come very quickly.

Looking forward to next week starts, as usual, with hoping for the rollover or assignment of as many positions as possible and once again, this week has too many positions with contracts set to expire.

As in recent past weeks the holdings aren’t terribly well diversified across the calendar so once again there’s a fair amount riding on the next couple of days. That’s not a position that I like being in and continue to be anxious to see a rise in volatility, as long as it waits until next Monday to begin in earnest.

Just to be clear, markets usually fall when volatility is rising, so let’s get through this week first and see those rollovers and assignments happen. Then the volatility can start to rise and bring with it better prices for all of that reserve cash to be put to
use.

If only it was all that easy.

PS: For those interested in something a little different, take a look at “Playing Leapfrog with MolyCorp” which explores another put related strategy that seeks to limit risk and enhance reward, especially with risky kind of positions.

Daily Market Update – April 8, 2014 (Close)

First of all, sorry for sending the rollover of Verizon Trading Alert so late yesterday.

As shares traded much higher in the latter part of the afternoon there was just no logical trade to be made. That changed in the final 20 minutes as shares started coming down a little from their day’s highs and an opportunity came to get some more premium and likely retain the dividend, although there were complicating considerations.

If you ever wanted to see what a “flight to safety” was all about, all you had to do was pay attention to Verizon in yesterday’s trading.

When the market started to further deteriorate in the early afternoon, making it begin to appear as if the day would be a lost cause and maybe a forerunner to something worse, Verizon did an about face at 12:25 PM.

It was probably no coincidence that today was its ex-dividend date, but shares soared well past their “threshold” value, that would have made early assignment of the April 11, 2014 $47.50 calls unlikely.

I was ambivalent about the prospects of rolling over the contract in order to retain the healthy dividend, especially since there was no $47.50 strike the following week and the week after was earnings week.

A quick calculation showed that the difference was an ROI of about 1.5%, based on the extra premium and keeping the dividend.

Since earnings are April 24th and the contract expires on April 25th, there’s also a chance that I’ll be looking to roll that contract over early, as well to mitigate earnings related risk.

However, what was especially interesting was that AT&T, which also went ex-dividend today, didn’t follow the same path. For a brief time in the mid-afternoon, it also started going higher as the market faltered, but then went back on a selling path.

The diverging behaviors yesterday probably sends some kind of message, but those messages typically have shorter and shorter half lives these days. Lately, even the fears of market corrections have very short half lives and deservedly so, because reality has borne out the fact they they are shallow and short lived of late.

Yesterday was not a very good day, but again, it was a day without much evidence of real panic, although the movement into Verizon may have been representative of an undercurrent of fear.

While the movement into safety wasn’t too much of a surprise, the real surprise was that there were some people that didn’t make the rollover trade on Verizon and somehow weren’t assigned.

The greatest likelihood is that was related to the fact that option contract holders
have until 5:30 PM to decide whether to exercise or not. For those that look at such ness after he market closed yesterday and it’s possible that convinced some contract holders that there was enough of a risk with shares opening even lower this morning that they were happy to just take their chances on the contracts, rather than taking the liability of a potential loss on shares.

So while some people were making those kinds of decisions after the closing bell, during trading hours on the other hand, it did appear as if there were some relative bargains to be had. While there is so much focus on the fall of Momentum stocks, it is hard to understand, on a fundamental basis, why so many other stocks would get taken along for the ride.

Ultimately, if there is a ride to be had, the sad truth is that almost everything gets taken along, but while so many are trying so hard to draw parallels to other bubbles, it just doesn’t seem that way.

While there may be risk ahead and while it may be a good idea to keep some cash on the side, it just doesn’t feel like the 15-20% kind of correction that some are calling for.

With 6 new purchases yesterday, I didn’t know how much more willing I would be this week to add to those positions and sink deeper into cash reserves, although some market stability, as we often see on Tuesdays, did prompt some more activity and also got a couple of new call contracts written on existing positions and on top of that, getting a chance to roll out to some future weeks.

Small victories.

For now, I would be content to let yesterday’s and today’s new positions be the only ones added this week and would be more than happy to see them go by the end of the week and hopefully help to continue that cycle of life that is the cash reserve, which makes all things possible.

Tomorrow brings another in an endless series of FOMC minute releases and so we can all sit and watch and see whether the market just takes an arbitrary direction yet again if nothing new is added into the economic mix.

Daily Market Update – April 8, 2014 (9:30 AM)

First of all, sorry for sending the rollover of Verizon Trading Alert so late yesterday.

As shares traded much higher in the latter part of the afternoon there was just no logical trade to be made. That changed in the final 20 minutes as shares started coming down a little from their day’s highs and an opportunity came to get some more premium and likely retain the dividend, although there were complicating considerations.

If you ever wanted to see what a “flight to safety” was all about, all you had to do was pay attention to Verizon in yesterday’s trading.

When the market started to further deteriorate in the early afternoon, making it begin to appear as if the day would be a lost cause and maybe a forerunner to something worse, Verizon did an about face at 12:25 PM.

It was probably no coincidence that today was its ex-dividend date, but shares soared well past their “threshold” value, that would have made early assignment of the April 11, 2014 $47.50 calls unlikely.

I was ambivalent about the prospects of rolling over the contract in order to retain the healthy dividend, especially since there was no $47.50 strike the following week and the week after was earnings week.

A quick calculation showed that the difference was an ROI of about 1.5%, based on the extra premium and keeping the dividend.

Since earnings are April 24th and the contract expires on April 25th, there’s also a chance that I’ll be looking to roll that contract over early, as well to mitigate earnings related risk.

However, what was especially interesting was that AT&T, which also went ex-dividend today, didn’t follow the same path. For a brief time in the mid-afternoon, it also started going higher as the market faltered, but then went back on a selling path.

The diverging behaviors yesterday probably sends some kind of message, but those messages typically have shorter and shorter half lives these days. Lately, even the fears of market corrections have very short half lives and deservedly so, because reality has borne out the fact they they are shallow and short lived of late.

Yesterday was not a very good day, but again, it was a day without much evidence of real panic, although the movement into Verizon may have been representative of an undercurrent of fear.

On the other hand, it did appear as if there were some relative bargains to be had. While there is so much focus on the fall of Momentum stocks, it is hard to understand, on a fundamental basis, why so many other stocks would get taken along for the ride.

Ultimately, if there is a ride to be had, the sad truth is that almost everything gets taken along, but while so many are trying so hard to draw parallels to other bubb
les, it just doesn’t seem that way.

While there may be risk ahead and while it may be a good idea to keep some cash on the side, it just doesn’t feel like the 15-20% kind of correction that some are calling for.

With 6 new purchases yesterday, I don’t know how much more willing I will be this week to add to those positions and sink deeper into cash reserves, although some market stability, as we often see on Tuesdays, might prompt some more activity.

For now, I would be content to let those new positions be the only ones added this week and would be more than happy to see them go by the end of the week and hopefully help to continue that cycle of life that is the cash reserve, which makes all things possible.









Daily Market Update – April 7, 2014 (Close)

Another weekend of nothing really happening to be of sufficient reason to move the markets to start the week. Nonetheless, the early impression was that there would be some very mild follow through to Friday’s very unexpected sell-off.

That would be wrong.

What also was wrong was the throng of voices who predicted, as the market was hitting it’s lows for the day, that the market would move even further lower going into the close. They were looking to see a test of the 1830 level on the S&P 500, which would have required about another 15 point drop, or about another 120 points on the DJIA.

Instead, things did tighten up a bit and for a very brief while even looked as if a triple digit loss would be erased.

With the turnaround in fortunes on Friday I felt very fortunate to have seen most of the anticipated assignments occur and have more cash on hand than when the week started, especially after having to dip into reserves to buy anything last week following only one assignment the prior week.

It’s far better to have the cash unencumbered by stock ownership when the market appears headed lower than having to go into reserves to put even more at risk. Recycling cash from assignments just doesn’t seem to psychologically carry the same level of risk, although it certainly does in reality,  where it counts.

While happy to have the cash, on the other hand, I was disappointed that some of the rollovers I felt fairly certain might get done, perhaps even turn into assignments, instead expired, leaving more uncovered positions that need to be looked after.

Still, not a bad way to start a week that begins with some added uncertainty that may be compounded as earnings begin anew this week and we get to see whether the weather has already been fully discounted in reporting for the past quarter.

Deep down you know that for some companies the bad weather excuse was simply an excuse. Some will take the opportunity with the current earnings reports to guide higher coming off a lower quarter and see their stocks rise and others will have to admit that there is something fundamentally wrong and not the weather at all. They will see their stocks drop.

Good luck trying to figure out which company will take which route.

Earnings season always requires the added attention to when the reports will be delivered. For those having been buy and hold investors it was predominantly earnings that made you wonder why you didn’t take profits sooner or made you wonder why you sold your shares so early. Rarely, if you were a long term holder, did earnings reports consistently move any individual stock in the same direction. One quarter’s nice advance may have been followed by another, but rarely a third and with it evaporation of those unrealized profits.

I used to hate earnings season. Now, it just means a l
ittle more work and trying to either avoid some positions or position yourself for whatever news may come your way and hope that whatever that news will be, it will be within reason.

That may be a little more challenging if there is any erosion in the market itself.

With cash near 40% to start the week the temptation to go shopping is definitely there. With a decent number of positions already having contracts expiring this Friday I would like to see any new purchases look at the possibility of going more forward, but that’s been easier to say lately than to do, as the premiums have been very low. I’ve been wanting to diversify in time for a few weeks now and haven’t had much luck in doing so. Friday’s drop did drive volatility a little higher so maybe there will be a better opportunity to do so this week.

What was interesting was that for some deep in the money strike levels for various stocks the premiums were in contango. That doesn’t happen very often and suggests that the options market was pricing in price drops going forward. Conceivably, someone looking to rollover a position at the same strike level would only have been able to do so at a net debit.

That’s not a very powerful motivator.

As with any market drop, especially after setting record highs, it’s only natural to wonder whether the drop was simply a blip or the start of something more omenous.

For the Momentum stocks that get so much attention the “omenous” seems to have already started.

Just look at the charts of SolarCity, Netflix, Amazon and LinkedIn, all from about March 19-20, 2014.

This morning that’s what I’ll likely be doing. Looking.

I’d like to see a little bit more of a sell-off before adding new positions, although some have taken enough of a decline, with no really obvious reason that it may be difficult to resist the opportunities.

It’s the age old battle of “Fear versus greed.” Only the week is new.

What surprised me is just how many new positions I did decide to open. The sell-off didn’t feel really terribly bad.

The only thing that did feel bad was watching everyone sell their stocks and rotate into what are thought to be safe and high yielding positions. Unfortunately, one of those was Verizon, which goes ex-dividend tomorrow. At about 12:25 PM it reversed its direction, going from well outside the possibility of being assigned early to likelihood of that happening. While I wanted to do the rollover to capture the dividend there just weren’t any good trades to be made, as it is one of those dividend arbitrage stocks that I referred to the other day. Trying to buy back the shares would have ended up being no different from offering to pay full value for the dividend the more deeply it was in the money.

About 15 minutes before the closing bell shares took a dip and there was an opportunity to get some scant premium through a rollover. I was, however, ambivalent about the trade as the April 25th contract expiration is a day after earnings are announced and I generally don’t like to be in that kind of position.

I did want the dividend, though.

In this case, it’s FOMO (fear of missing out) versus greed, and those two are really one and the same.







Daily Market Update – April 7, 2014 (9:00 AM)

Another weekend of nothing really happening to be of sufficient reason to move the markets to start the week. Nonetheless, the early impression is that there’s some very mild follow through to Friday’s very unexpected sell-off.

With the turnaround in fortunes on Friday I felt very fortunate to have seen most of the anticipated assignments occur and have more cash on hand than when the week started, especially after having to dip into reserves to buy anything last week following only one assignment the prior week.

It’s far better to have the cash unencumbered by stock ownership when the market appears headed lower than having to go into reserves to put even more at risk. Recycling cash from assignments just doesn’t seem to psychologically carry the same level of risk, although it certainly does in reality,  where it counts.

While happy to have the cash, on the other hand, I was disappointed that some of the rollovers I felt fairly certain might get done, perhaps even turn into assignments, instead expired, leaving more uncovered positions that need to be looked after.

Still, not a bad way to start a week that begins with some added uncertainty that may be compounded as earnings begin anew this week and we get to see whether the weather has already been fully discounted in reporting for the past quarter.

Deep down you know that for some companies the bad weather excuse was simply an excuse. Some will take the opportunity with the current earnings reports to guide higher coming off a lower quarter and see their stocks rise and others will have to admit that there is something fundamentally wrong and not the weather at all. They will see their stocks drop.

Good luck trying to figure out which company will take which route.

Earnings season always requires the added attention to when the reports will be delivered. For those having been buy and hold investors it was predominantly earnings that made you wonder why you didn’t take profits sooner or made you wonder why you sold your shares so early. Rarely, if you were a long term holder, did earnings reports consistently move any individual stock in the same direction. One quarter’s nice advance may have been followed by another, but rarely a third and with it evaporation of those unrealized profits.

I used to hate earnings season. Now, it just means a little more work and trying to either avoid some positions or position yourself for whatever news may come your way and hope that whatever that news will be, it will be within reason.

That may be a little more challenging if there is any erosion in the market itself.

With cash near 40% to start the week the temptation to go shopping is definitely there. With a decent number of positions already having contracts expiring this Friday I would like to see any new purchases look at the possibility of going more forward, but that’s been easier to say lately than to do, as the premiums have been very low. I’ve been wanting to diversify in time for a few weeks now and haven’t had much luck in doing so. Friday’s drop did drive volatility a little higher so maybe there will
be a better opportunity to do so this week.

What was interesting was that for some deep in the money strike levels for various stocks the premiums were in contango. That doesn’t happen very often and suggests that the options market was pricing in price drops going forward. Conceivably, someone looking to rollover a position at the same strike level would only have been able to do so at a net debit.

That’s not a very powerful motivator.

As with any market drop, especially after setting record highs, it’s only natural to wonder whether the drop was simply a blip or the start of something more omenous.

For the Momentum stocks that get so much attention the “omenous” seems to have already started.

Just look at the charts of SolarCity, Netflix, Amazon and LinkedIn, all from about March 19-20, 2014.

This morning that’s what I’ll likely be doing. Looking.

I’d like to see a little bit more of a sell-off before adding new positions, although some have taken enough of a decline, with no really obvious reason that it may be difficult to resist the opportunities.

It’s the age old battle of “Fear versus greed.” Only the week is new.







Daily Market Update – April 4, 2014 (9:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by noon on Sunday.

Today’s possible outcomes include:

Assignment: APC, BBY, CHK, CMCSA, COH, GM, MRO

Rollover:  EBAY, FCX, HFC, MA

Expiration:  APOL (puts), C, FDO, LULU

Trades, if any will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM {EDT)