Author: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update –  December 14, 2016 (Close)

The FOMC Statement release came this afternoon and we all knew what was going to happen.

That was, unless of course, the FOMC decided to show that it still means something and isn’t just an assembly of intellectuals incapable of action.

In that event, the FOMC would have, of course, raised the interest rate to at least match what natural market forces have done, but they would taken it a step further and go beyond the o.25% increase that is being factored in by everyone.

But we all also pretty much knew that wasn’t going to happen, because the last thing intellectuals want is to unleash a bully and you know who that would be.

And do, it didn’t happen.

What did happen was an example of what happens when the leaders are more the followers and when they sow seeds of uncertainty and confusion.

This morning the futures wee taking a little bit of a break after another strong gain that put the DJIA within easy reach of 20,000.

20,000!!!!

But as the FOMC  announced their 0.25% rate the market really didn’t quite know what to do.

Should it celebrate or agonize, or should it freeze?

It took the Chairman’s press conference to answer that question, but the answer was that there was too much uncertainty about what was ahead and that no one had really factored in a Trump Presidency.

More importantly, there was the suggestion that instead of the 2 hikes most expected in 2017, there might be room for 3 hikes.

Of course, we expected 4 hikes in 2016 and here we are.

Last year at this time when the FOMC raised rates it may have been the fear of even more rate hikes that cut the celebration short and gave us a real correction.

That correction was a quick one and short lived, but unless there was really something totally unexpected coming from today’s statement release or a slip of the tongue afterward in the press conference, it would have been hard to see that same response in the coming weeks.

We can all see the economic signs on the road, although the question may now be how quickly will things heat up if the bluster is for real.

I remain ready to spend some cash, but not feeling compelled to do so.

I hope that the rally in commodities continues after taking a day or 2 or 3 off and I hope to see 2017 get off to the kind of start that just perpetuates 2016.

I was happy to take advantage of some of that commodity confusion and rollover both positions set to expire this week. 

The kind of confusion that creates opportunity is good and at this point, I still like having cash in hand and opportunities to spend it on.

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Daily Market Update –  December 13, 2016 (Close)

The FOMC began its 2 day meeting today and we all know what is going to happen.

That is, unless of course, the FOMC decides to be proactive and not simply reactive.

If that would be the case, look out for a barrage of vitriol laced Tweets from President-Elect Trump.

It’s not very likely that the FOMC would announce anything greater than a 0.25% rate hike, but if it does, all will break loose.

No one wants that, which may be exactly why that should be what is done.

With all of the discussion of infrastructure building and the likelihood of increased demand for oil, coupled with everything else going on in the economy, someone, somewhere is going to be thinking about inflation in the way we used to think about it.

Besides, the FOMC is really late to the game as the natural market forces were there first.

I don’t expect it to be a factor in what I do this week, but I’m actually happy to have my cash level as high as it is at the moment.

I may still have some interest in spending some money before the week is over, but not too much.

I’d be much happier finding something to do with all of those positions expiring this week.

I’ll leave the rest up to the smart people in the FOMC meeting over the next day.

What really surprised me, though, is that even after today’s nice move higher, I still don’t totally dismiss the idea of spending some money tomorrow.

After the FOMC Statement release and then sometime during the ensuing press conference, we may really get some idea as to whether this time around may be very different from the last time we did this a year ago.

I think it will be, yet still want to have that cash beneath me for now.

There will still be plenty of time to chase markets.

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Daily Market Update –  December 13, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The FOMC begins its 2 day meeting today and we all know what is going to happen.

That is, unless of course, the FOMC decides to be proactive and not simply reactive.

If that would be the case, look out for a barrage of vitriol laced Tweets from President-Elect Trump.

It’s not very likely that the FOMC would announce anything greater than a 0.5% rate hike, but if it does, all will break loose.

No one wants that, which may be exactly why that should be what is done.

With all of the discussion of infrastructure building and the likelihood of increased demand for oil, coupled with everything else going on in the economy, someone, somewhere is going to be thinking about inflation in the way we used to think about it.

Besides, the FOMC is really late to the game as the natural market forces were there first.

I don’t expect it to be a factor in what I do this week, but I’m actually happy to have my cash level as high as it is at the moment.

I may still have some interest in spending some money before the week is over, but not too much.

I’d be much happier finding something to do with all of those positions expiring this week.

I’ll leave the rest up to the smart people in the FOMC meeting over the next 2 days.

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Daily Market Update –  December 12, 2016 (Close)

Last week the Trump Rally was in full steam.

This week we do have an FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference, but there is no reason to believe that anything will change.

At least not as far as the rush to buy stocks.

Suddenly, it seems that the business of America is again business and everyone seems to like that.

Once other issues come into play, like actually running the country within the context of a very complex world, we will find out how the overlay of international events may impact upon our focus on business for business sake and a nation run by billionaires.

For now, I continue to enjoy the idea of just going along for the ride.

TOday the ride turned out not to be all that extreme.

I have more cash set aside this week than has been the case in a long, long time and may be able to add onto the cash reserve this week as the monthly option cycle comes to its end.

I like that idea, even as markets are heading higher.

At this point, I don’t mind having cash around to pick up some bargains that may be in our future.

With money to spend, I’d rather be making my new money on shares that may become newly volatile and have both a chance for capital appreciation and enhanced premiums.

WIth the FOMC Statement release this week and the Chairman’s pres conference, I still might be interested in spending some money and I did.

However, with a couple of ex-dividend positions, maybe some opportunity for rollovers and then assignments, there isn’t that much of a compelling reason to spend much more than was the case today.

That one position was more on the speculative side.

Much more, but I hope to be able to serially play this one out, as I have some hopes that it may be the next Marathon Oil.

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Daily Market Update –  December 12, 2016 (8:30 AM)

Last week the Trump Rally as in full steam.

This week we do have an FOMC STatement release and a CHairman’s press conference, but there is no reason to believe that anything will change.

At least not as far as the rush to buy stocks.

Suddenly, it seems that the business of AMerica is again business and everyone seems to like that.

Once other issues come into play, like actually running the country within the context of a very complex world, we will find out how the overlay of international events may impact upon our focus on business for business sake and a nation run by billionaires.

For now, I continue to enjoy the idea of just going along for the ride.

I have more cash set aside this week than has been the case in a long, long time and may be able to add onto the cash reserve this week as the monthly option cycle comes to its end.

I like that idea, even as markets are heading higher.

At this point, I don’t mind having cash around to pick up some bargains that may be in our future.

With money to spend, I’d rather be making my new money on shares that may become newly volatile and have both a chance for capital appreciation and enhanced premiums.

WIth the FOMC Statement release this week and the CHairman’s pres conference, I still might be interested in spending some money.

However, with a couple of ex-dividend positions, maybe some opportunity for rollovers and then assignments, there isn’t that much of a compelling reason to spend.

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Daily Market Update –  December 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: BX

Rollovers: None

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GM (12/5 $0.38), HAL (12/5 $0.18). KSS (12/5 $0.50). NEM (12/6 $0.05), COH (12/7 $0.34)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  December 8, 2016 (Close)

What can you possibly say about yesterday’s nearly 300 point advance?

Things just took off at about 11 AM and never looked back.

You could have said the same about today, other than the 300 point part.

Still, there was even more to add to the record highs.

With the FOMC meeting coming up, you would have to think that the re-ignition of the Trump Rally after a brief rest could only mean that there isn’t too much fear about what the market will do if the FOMC delivers what is expected.

Given what happened last year, you would also have to believe that people with decent memory or having the ability to look at past charts, have also come to the belief that there will be no adverse delayed reaction to the FOMC’s decision this time around.

Yesterday was just another good day to go along for the ride, even as there was some opportunity to execute a rollover.

Of course, that rollover was of a “DOH” trade, so there was some anxiety over losing out on whatever short term strength there may be that could offset the longer term decline in the particular position.

With yesterday’s nearly 300 point gain, things did look more sedate this morning, but so did things yesterday at this same time.

With now only a single position set to expire tomorrow and that position looking well like it will be assigned, there may not be too much left to do, other than continuing to try and rollover Monday’s ex-dividend position that’s now well in the money, in an attempt to at least get a portion of the dividend in the form of some more premium.

Otherwise, it’s rest and relaxation and hoping that more of those paper gains become the real kind over the next few weeks.

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