Author: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update –  October 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week provided some confusing data on the Employment Situation front, but markets were confused all week long.

This week may end up being less confusing, but we may have to wait until Friday to really get any of that clarity.

Friday is the day that the major money center banks release earnings and it will also be the day that the Retail Sales Report is released.

The latter is backward looking, but the former may offer some glimpse into what 2017 may have to offer with regard to economic growth.

After those are all done, then Janet Yellen addresses the Boston Federal Reserve’s conference with a real appropriate topic: “The Elusive Recovery.”

We may get to find out on Friday morning how those big banks feel about their own upcoming business prospects.

A real economic recovery can’t have much chance if the banks don’t lead the way, so Friday morning may be an important one.

If the banks see good things ahead, markets may very well take note, but it’s unclear as to how they may take note.

Based on some of the uneasiness whenever it appeared that an interest rate increase was going to happen sooner rather than later, you could easily envision a market sell-off with any perceived economic strength.

If that’s the case, at some point, you would imagine that cooler heads would prevail, much as they did in February and then help to move the markets beyond their all time highs.

I do have some cash to spend this week, even as I don’t have too much interest in doing so. But when I also look at the fact that there are no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set to expire, I would then like to create my own opportunities.

With the market pointing toward a moderately positive open this morning, once again my preference for the generation of the weekly income I crave would be through the sale of calls on uncovered positions.

Some sustained moves higher would be very welcome and I would love to recreate last week’s experience.

I should qualify that ad say that I would like to recreate that experience, except without the experience of having opened that speculative new position at precisely the wrong time.

Daily Market Update –  October 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: AGQ puts

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GPS (10/3 $0.23), BMY (10/5 $0.38)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – October 6, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday saw a nice rally that was led by oil, not that that really makes any more sense than it had made through much of 2016.

Nonetheless, it gave another opportunity to sell some calls on a non-performing position, but once again, the expiration date was measured in months and not in weeks.

While I do like trading and enjoy the activity, ultimately, it’s the bottom line and comparative performance that counts.

I suppose that if I can get to that bottom line objective it may not matter that I got there in a less enjoyable way, but it will matter to me.

Still, an opportunity is an opportunity and I don’t mind seeing the projected returns in the event of an assignment, even if it is still 3 or 4 months away.

For some reason, I still like looking at those nice percentage returns, especially when the stock hasn’t really moved very much.

For me, that never gets old, although waiting for assignments is both getting old and seeing me getting older and older.

That I could do without.

This morning, the day before the Employment Situation report was to be released, you would expect that markets would be cautious.

You may not have known it by the way the market ended, but there were times during today’s trading that it looked as if some caution was going to be thrown into the wind and that traders were inclined to not stand in the way of whatever might be unleashed tomorrow.

But that changed and the market recovered its losses to finish mixed on the day..

What the market has done the past couple of days is to once again take its cues from the oil market, despite the complete lack of sense in doing so.

Tomorrow may signal a return to an interest rate focus and I can’t imagine how anything would be greeted well, unless the employment numbers are weak.

At this point, it seems that anything that looks as if it could be justification for an interest rate increase is being scorned and then results in selling.

The expectations for tomorrow are fairly low.

Only 170,000 new jobs are expected when getting numbers in the 200,000 range have been pretty commonplace.

I hope to be able to get some more trades in, but only if they can put some laggards to work. I don’t want to spend down cash, especially having done so this week and having so poorly timed that purchase.

That may be the theme for a while.

Daily Market Update – October 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday saw a nice rally that was led by oil, not that that really makes any more sense than it had made through much of 2016.

Nonetheless, it gave another opportunity to sell some calls on a non-performing position, but once again, the expiration date was measured in months and not in weeks.

While I do like trading and enjoy the activity, ultimately, it’s the bottom line and comparative performance that counts.

I suppose that if I can get to that bottom line objective it may not matter that I got there in a less enjoyable way, but it will matter to me.

Still, an opportunity is an opportunity and I don’t mind seeing the projected returns in the event of an assignment, even if it is still 3 or 4 months away.

For some reason, I still like looking at those nice percentage returns, especially when the stock hasn’t really moved very much.

For me, that never gets old, although waiting for assignments is both getting old and seeing me getting older and older.

That I could do without.

This morning, the day before the Employment Situation report is to be released, you would expect that markets would be cautious. What they’ve done the past couple of days is to once again take their cues from the oil market, despite the complete lack of sense in doing so.

Tomorrow may signal a return to an interest rate focus and I can’t imagine how anything would be greeted well, unless the employment numbers are weak.

At this point, it seems that anything that looks as if it could be justification for an interest rate increase is being scorned and then results in selling.

The expectations for tomorrow are fairly low.

Only 170,000 new jobs are expected when getting numbers in the 200,000 range have been pretty commonplace.

I hope to be able to get some more trades in, but only if they can put some laggards to work. I don’t want to spend down cash, especially having done so this week and having so poorly timed that purchase.

That may be the theme for a while

Daily Market Update – October 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

There really is very little reason for the market to do much of anything until Friday, when the Employment Situation Report is released.

That seems to be the case this morning, as it had the two previous mornings this week, although there were some times as trading ensued after the opening bell that the market seemed to forget what it was waiting to hear.

One thing that did become clear is that there are interest rate jitters.

Another thing that has been abundantly clear is that whoever is calling the shots and creating market unease about interest rates, just simply isn’t a student of history.

Instead of panic over the thought of a 0.25% interest rate hike, there should be concern that the economy can’t support even more, now that we’re approaching our 7th year of recovery.

But if those selling off at the mere thought of an interest rate increase would only look back in time, they would see that the early stages of rate increases are a great time to be accumulating stock.

That makes sense and for once, or maybe on just this rare occasion, something that makes sense had actually been the thing that had happened in the past.

That is, in the past, the early stages of interest rate increases reflected an expanding economy that was then reflected in the top and bottom lines of companies.

That in turn expanded earnings, which we all know is tied to a stock’s price, or at least should be.

Those are the very basic fundamentals upon which investing has always been based.

Maybe not trading, but investing.

So, even as we sit near new all time highs, there’s reason to think that an old fashioned expansion of the economy will lead us  even higher. Last week saw 5 days with triple digit moves, yet the market itself only ended with a net 0.2% gain.

I tend not to think in terms of unbridled enthusiasm, but I would definitely like to add to my cash reserves to have an opportunity to pick up anything that may take a move lower, in anticipation of some sustained moves higher.

For now, I would just like to see some assignments of positions in October, stockpile some cash and then consider re-deployment as early as Election Day week, even as there could be a sell-off when the news of an interest rate increase does finally arrive.

Daily Market Update – October 4, 2016 (Close)

Last week saw 5 days with triple digit moves, yet the market itself only ended with a net 0.2% gain.

This week looked as if it was going to pick up right where it had left off, not only by being a triple digit day, but in a reversal of course.

At the sounding of yesterday’s closing bell the course was reversed, but the streak was broken.

This morning’s futures gave no indication of anything as the trading was muted, as we draw nearer and nearer Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

The expectations for Friday are on the low side, only about 170,000 new jobs created, so a number with a 2 handle, especially if accompanied with an upward revision or two, could easily provoke a large reaction.

My guess is that reaction would be a negative one, even though once cool heads prevailed it should be seen as being something very positive.

The recent GDP release shows that something good is brewing in the economy and that would make it only a matter of short time until its reflected in both earnings and in guidance.

Maybe not in that order, but with spending cuts going on any increase to the top line should result in better comparable statistics and that is what it’s all about.

I went speculative yesterday with the sale of puts on a precious metal and was fortunate to get an opportunity to sell some calls on a long dormant position, that if ever assigned will still result in a nice return, thanks to the dividends and the accumulated premiums, even if one of the lots sold goes for $5 less than the purchase price.

While I still have some cash to part with, my expectation, just as that expectation was breached yesterday, is to be cautious and await Friday’s news.

There’s little else to capture attention this week other than any rallies that could give some additional opportunities to sell calls on dormant positions.

That would make the week worthwhile.

Today, however, the market really did show how unwilling it is to go gently into a higher interest rate environment as a fairly steep increase in rates today, partially due to some finite timetable Brexit news, sent stocks lower and really punished precious metals.

Unless there is some sustained news on the interest rate front between today’s close and Friday’s Employment Situation Report release, I suspect that today was a blip in both markets, but predictability hasn’t been the hallmark for what this market is likely to do on any given day.

Daily Market Update – October 4, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week saw 5 days with triple digit moves, yet the market itself only ended with a net 0.2% gain.

This week looked as if it was going to pick up right where it had left off, not only by being a triple digit day, but in a reversal of course.

At the sounding of yesterday’s closing bell the course was reversed, but the streak was broken.

This morning’s futures give no indication of anything as the trading is muted, as we draw nearer and nearer Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

The expectations for Friday are on the low side, only about 170,000 new jobs created, so a number with a 2 handle, especially if accompanied with an upward revision or two, could easily provoke a large reaction.

My guess is that reaction would be a negative one, even though once cool heads prevailed it should be seen as being something very positive.

The recent GDP release shows that something good is brewing in the economy and that would make it only a matter of short time until its reflected in both earnings and in guidance.

Maybe not in that order, but with spending cuts going on any increase to the top line should result in better comparable statistics and that is what it’s all about.

I went speculative yesterday with the sale of puts on a precious metal and was fortunate to get an opportunity to sell some calls on a long dormant position, that if ever assigned will still result in a nice return, thanks to the dividends and the accumulated premiums, even if one of the lots sold goes for $5 less than the purchase price.

While I xstill have some cash to part with, my expectation, just as that expectation was breached yesterday, is to be cautious and await Friday’s news.

There’s little else to capture attention this week other than any rallies that could give some additional opportunities to sell calls on dormant positions.

That would make the week worthwhile.