Month: December 2016

Daily Market Update –  December 6, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday, at least for the most part, there were more indications that the Trump Rally was going to continue.

This morning it looked as if markets would take a break, at least at the start.

With more new closing records on the DJIA, 2016 looks as if it is going to end on a good foot.

Last year, following a bump higher after the FOMC raised interest rates, the market gave up its head of steam heading into the close of the year and then simply proceeded to lose about 10% until turning around on a dime.

This year, we may find ourselves being set up for the same thing, but the difference this year is that we may finally have a good earnings season to really bring us to a better place.

Yesterday was another day to just go along for the ride and today was the same.

I could get used to that.

That has been much of the story with 2016, but as much as I may want to complain about the lack of trading on the year, with only 31 closed positions, when I look at the relative performance compared to the S&P 500, I don’t really have anything to complain about.

What I thought that I’d end up doing today was just adding to the boredom of the whole year and that I would likely end up doing nothing.

While I did make another DOH Trade yesterday, I decided not to make it part of the OTP Recommendation. Because we’re still having to manage last week’s DOH Trade, I thought that 2 of the same was just too many when faced with the unexpected runs higher that both of those positions have had.

Sometimes there’s only so many things that you can balance when they all need undivided attention.

So of course, I made another DOH trade today and again chose not to burden anyone with it, but it did seem as if some may have followed suit as I looked at the volume. The difference, though, was that instead of going for just a single week, I elected to go out 2 weeks on the expiration.

So the week may still end up being a quiet one on a personal level, with the exception of a couple of expiring positions.

Even as the market is heading toward these new highs, or maybe because of it, I am not minding increasing my cash position.

At this point in time, I would actually love to see a 5% decline, now that I have sufficient enough cash to do something about relative bargains that might then appear.

It has been a long time since that’s been the case.

While I don’t expect that to happen, with next week’s FOMC Statement release, you still have to be prepared for the unexpected, regardless of how telegraphed things look at this moment in time.

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MONDAY:   It looks as if the market may be ready to resume the Trump Rally as the week gets underway

TUESDAY:    Maybe another day of rest today, but the trend is pretty clear.

WEDNESDAY:  

THURSDAY:  

FRIDAY:. 







Daily Market Update –  December 5, 2016 (Close)

The week looks as if it wants to get back to the Trump Rally.

Futures were showing a decent gain and there really didn’t appear to be any headwinds, even as the FOMC is getting ready to announce their first interest rate cut in a year.

It would also be only the second rate increase in about 10 years, even as we were expecting multiple rate hikes this year.

Now that expectation is for 2017.

At the moment, the stock market seems to be reacting precisely the same way it did last year.

But if it follows what id did last year, then a week or two after the rumor becomes news, it may be a good time to be positioned to pick up some bargains.

I’m at my highest cash position in quite some time and have enjoyed a really good 2016.

Being more and more in cash means that some of that really good year has been realized and not just on paper.

Of course, it also means potentially missing out some on any more rally that may await.

I do think that there’s more ahead, but this time I think that it may finally be corporate earnings that will move us forward, or at least offset whatever fear may hit investors if multiple rate hikes become a concern.

With cash in hand, multiple ex-dividend positions and a couple of positions expiring this week, I’m in a good position.

I have cash coming in, but also available for anything that looks good.

With a number of positions also expiring next week, I’m looking forward to closing the books on 2016.

I’m not quite certain what to expect this week, nor what I may do, nut I don’t think that I’ll be too busy trading.

Lately, going along for the ride and finding some opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions has been a nice way to go.

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Daily Market Update –  December 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The week looks as if it wants to get back to the Trump Rally.

Futures are showing a decent gain and there really don’t appear to be any headwinds, even as the FOMC is getting ready to announce their first interest rate cut in a year.

It would also be only the second rate increase in about 10 years, even as we were expecting multiple rate hikes this year.

Now that expectation is for 2017.

At the moment, the stock market seems to be reacting precisely the same way it did last year.

But if it follows what id did last year, then a week or two after the rumor becomes news, it may be a good time to be positioned to pick up some bargains.

I’m at my highest cash position in quite some time and have enjoyed a really good 2016.

Being more and more in cash means that some of that really good year has been realized and not just on paper.

Of course, it also means potentially missing out some on any more rally that may await.

I do think that there’s more ahead, but this time I think that it may finally be corporate earnings that will move us forward, or at least offset whatever fear may hit investors if multiple rate hikes become a concern.

With cash in hand, multiple ex-dividend positions and a couple of positions expiring this week, I’m in a good position.

I have cash coming in, but also available for anything that looks good.

With a number of positions also expiring next week, I’m looking forward to closing the books on 2016.

I’m not quite certain what to expect this week, nor what I may do, nut I don’t think that I’ll be too busy trading.

Lately, going along for the ride and finding some opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions has been a nice way to go.

.

Daily Market Update –  December 2, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: BX

Expirations:   MRO (puts)

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GME (11/29 $0.37), MOS (11/29 $0.275), ANF (11/30 $0.20)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  December 1, 2016 (Close)

It’s December and we are sitting right at all time highs.

OK, maybe the S&P 500 wasn’t paying attention today, but how about that DJIA?

If your portfolio has energy and commodities in it, you are doing far better than anyone else, although if you had them last year, as I did, you would have said close to the opposite.

Put it all together, year building upon year, and some of those things work out, especially if there are little cushions like option premiums and dividends along the way.

Those make it easier to wait out what we all know are cycles.

What we never know is when a cycle begins nor ends, nor do we ever know its length.

Who, in the face of a worldwide economy that wasn’t really shrinking, ever believe that energy prices would go so low and then stay so low for so long?

But that’s what it is as we are now again faced with oil above $50.

We again will see whether it can stabilize above that level or whether increased supply will push price lower again.

What may be different this time is that the market has reason to go up or down on its own merits and not solely on the price of oil, as it had dome through so much of the past year.

As December comes around and the year comes to its end, we just have to watch and see what the FOMC does, but probably more importantly what will be said in its statement and what kind of things are said at the subsequent Chairman’s press conference.

After that, it’s just a case of waiting to see if corporate profits do follow the path that it looks as if they may finally take and whether or not our new President can move his agenda forward.

I for one, am looking forward to 2017, despite a very satisfying 2016 in the market.

The countdown begins today and maybe tomorrow brings us a taste of what the rest of 2016 may hold.

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Daily Market Update –  December 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

It’s December and we are sitting right at all time highs.

If your portfolio has energy and commodities in it, you are doing far better than anyone else, although if you had them last year, as I did, you would have said close to the opposite.

Put it all together, year building upon year, and some of those things work out, especially if there are little cushions like option premiums and dividends along the way.

Those make it easier to wait out what we all know are cycles.

What we never know is when a cycle begins nor ends, nor do we ever know its length.

Who, in the face of a worldwide economy that wasn’t really shrinking, ever believe that energy prices would go so low and then stay so low for so long?

But that’s what it is as we are now again faced with oil above $50.

We again will see whether it can stabilize above that level or whether increased supply will push price lower again.

What may be different this time is that the market has reason to go up or down on its own merits and not solely on the price of oil, as it had dome through so much of the past year.

As December comes around and the year comes to its end, we just have to watch and see what the FOMC does, but probably more importantly what will be said in its statement and what kind of things are said at the subsequent Chairman’s press conference.

After that, it’s just a case of waiting to see if corporate profits do follow the path that it looks as if they may finally take and whether or not our new President can move his agenda forward.

I for one, am looking forward to 2017, despite a very satisfying 2016 in the market.

The countdown begins today.

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