Month: December 2016

Daily Market Update –  December 13, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The FOMC begins its 2 day meeting today and we all know what is going to happen.

That is, unless of course, the FOMC decides to be proactive and not simply reactive.

If that would be the case, look out for a barrage of vitriol laced Tweets from President-Elect Trump.

It’s not very likely that the FOMC would announce anything greater than a 0.5% rate hike, but if it does, all will break loose.

No one wants that, which may be exactly why that should be what is done.

With all of the discussion of infrastructure building and the likelihood of increased demand for oil, coupled with everything else going on in the economy, someone, somewhere is going to be thinking about inflation in the way we used to think about it.

Besides, the FOMC is really late to the game as the natural market forces were there first.

I don’t expect it to be a factor in what I do this week, but I’m actually happy to have my cash level as high as it is at the moment.

I may still have some interest in spending some money before the week is over, but not too much.

I’d be much happier finding something to do with all of those positions expiring this week.

I’ll leave the rest up to the smart people in the FOMC meeting over the next 2 days.

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Daily Market Update –  December 12, 2016 (Close)

Last week the Trump Rally was in full steam.

This week we do have an FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference, but there is no reason to believe that anything will change.

At least not as far as the rush to buy stocks.

Suddenly, it seems that the business of America is again business and everyone seems to like that.

Once other issues come into play, like actually running the country within the context of a very complex world, we will find out how the overlay of international events may impact upon our focus on business for business sake and a nation run by billionaires.

For now, I continue to enjoy the idea of just going along for the ride.

TOday the ride turned out not to be all that extreme.

I have more cash set aside this week than has been the case in a long, long time and may be able to add onto the cash reserve this week as the monthly option cycle comes to its end.

I like that idea, even as markets are heading higher.

At this point, I don’t mind having cash around to pick up some bargains that may be in our future.

With money to spend, I’d rather be making my new money on shares that may become newly volatile and have both a chance for capital appreciation and enhanced premiums.

WIth the FOMC Statement release this week and the Chairman’s pres conference, I still might be interested in spending some money and I did.

However, with a couple of ex-dividend positions, maybe some opportunity for rollovers and then assignments, there isn’t that much of a compelling reason to spend much more than was the case today.

That one position was more on the speculative side.

Much more, but I hope to be able to serially play this one out, as I have some hopes that it may be the next Marathon Oil.

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Daily Market Update –  December 12, 2016 (8:30 AM)

Last week the Trump Rally as in full steam.

This week we do have an FOMC STatement release and a CHairman’s press conference, but there is no reason to believe that anything will change.

At least not as far as the rush to buy stocks.

Suddenly, it seems that the business of AMerica is again business and everyone seems to like that.

Once other issues come into play, like actually running the country within the context of a very complex world, we will find out how the overlay of international events may impact upon our focus on business for business sake and a nation run by billionaires.

For now, I continue to enjoy the idea of just going along for the ride.

I have more cash set aside this week than has been the case in a long, long time and may be able to add onto the cash reserve this week as the monthly option cycle comes to its end.

I like that idea, even as markets are heading higher.

At this point, I don’t mind having cash around to pick up some bargains that may be in our future.

With money to spend, I’d rather be making my new money on shares that may become newly volatile and have both a chance for capital appreciation and enhanced premiums.

WIth the FOMC Statement release this week and the CHairman’s pres conference, I still might be interested in spending some money.

However, with a couple of ex-dividend positions, maybe some opportunity for rollovers and then assignments, there isn’t that much of a compelling reason to spend.

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Daily Market Update –  December 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: BX

Rollovers: None

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GM (12/5 $0.38), HAL (12/5 $0.18). KSS (12/5 $0.50). NEM (12/6 $0.05), COH (12/7 $0.34)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  December 8, 2016 (Close)

What can you possibly say about yesterday’s nearly 300 point advance?

Things just took off at about 11 AM and never looked back.

You could have said the same about today, other than the 300 point part.

Still, there was even more to add to the record highs.

With the FOMC meeting coming up, you would have to think that the re-ignition of the Trump Rally after a brief rest could only mean that there isn’t too much fear about what the market will do if the FOMC delivers what is expected.

Given what happened last year, you would also have to believe that people with decent memory or having the ability to look at past charts, have also come to the belief that there will be no adverse delayed reaction to the FOMC’s decision this time around.

Yesterday was just another good day to go along for the ride, even as there was some opportunity to execute a rollover.

Of course, that rollover was of a “DOH” trade, so there was some anxiety over losing out on whatever short term strength there may be that could offset the longer term decline in the particular position.

With yesterday’s nearly 300 point gain, things did look more sedate this morning, but so did things yesterday at this same time.

With now only a single position set to expire tomorrow and that position looking well like it will be assigned, there may not be too much left to do, other than continuing to try and rollover Monday’s ex-dividend position that’s now well in the money, in an attempt to at least get a portion of the dividend in the form of some more premium.

Otherwise, it’s rest and relaxation and hoping that more of those paper gains become the real kind over the next few weeks.

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Daily Market Update –  December 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

What can you possibly say about yesterday’s nearly 300 point advance?

Things just took off at about 11 AM and never looked back.

With the FOMC meeting coming up, you would have to think that the re-ignition of the Trump Rally after a brief rest could only mean that there isn’t too much fear about what the market will do if the FOMC delivers what is expected.

Given what happened last year, you would also have to believe that people with decent memory or having the ability to look at past charts, have also come to the belief that there will be no adverse delayed reaction to the FOMC’s decision this time around.

Yesterday was just another good day to go along for the ride, even as there was some opportunity to execute a rollover.

Of course, that rollover was of a “DOH” trade, so there was some anxiety over losing out on whatever short term strength there may be that could offset the longer term decline in the particular position.

With yesterday’s nearly 300 point gain, things do look more sedate this morning, but so did things yesterday at this same time.

With now only a single position set to expire tomorrow and that position looking well like it will be assigned, there may not be too much left to do, other than continuing to try and rollover Monday’s ex-dividend position that’s now well in the money, in an attempt to at least get a portion of the dividend in the form of some more premium.

Otherwise, it’s rest and relaxation and hoping that more of those paper gains become the real kind.

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Daily Market Update –  December 7, 2016 (9:30 AM)

The DJIA sits again at a new high as we get set to begin this morning and the S&P 500 is within easy striking distance.

Once again, this morning looks as if it may take a break, even as the world’s markets are advancing.

The real question remains how markets are going to react when the FOMC finally comes to a decision.

With the recent run up in stock prices is this the time to take profits or is this time to catapult to even greater highs?

There’s plenty of past history to support either of those paths, so it may be an eventful couple of weeks as we await what most everyone believes will be affirmation of the certainty of a tax increase.

As I look at the performance of my portfolio on the year, I’m just happy to see it keep doing what it has been doing.

That’s especially true when you think that for a portfolio that still has energy and commodity positions, there may be more good things to come as the economy heats up.

Patience may really have its virtues, especially when there aren’t very many predictable alternatives if you elect to be impatient.

The relative performance of markets have punished those who’ve decided to sell losers, such as energy and commodities and invest their money elsewhere.

The likelihood is that your idea of elsewhere hasn’t been quite the performer that you had been hoping to find as a replacement for your losers that you had dumped.

With the exception of those that go the bankruptcy route, almost everything else lives in some kind of cyclical pattern, if you can live long enough to see that big picture complete itself.

At this point, I just want to make it to 2017.

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