Month: October 2016

Daily Market Update –  October 14, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: MRO puts

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    none 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  October 13, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a surprisingly flat day after a surprisingly weak day.

Once the FOMC Meeting minutes were released, which showed that there was a fairly strong contingent of voting members who believed that we were ready for an interest rate hike, I thought that the market might vote with its feet.

That’s especially the case as word came yesterday that retailers are getting ready for the Christmas season and are having a hard time finding seasonal employees, despite offering better wages than last season.

No doubt that is an inflationary pressure, the kind that has to be factored into the consumer equation.

Maybe the reaction was going to be delayed, as the futures this morning had been showing triple digit weakness.

The market did acquit itself pretty well, though, coming back from a nearly 200 point loss to finish the day not even 50 points lower.

But tomorrow does beckon.

At some point, all of this will be over, just as it was last year, except that we may still be placed into that waiting phase, where we again wonder when the next and the next interest rate increase will come, as now the expectation is for multiple, yet small increases in 2017.

That same expectation for 2016, which has yet to materialize has been a burden and also a gift when the expected hasn’t materialized.

With one position set for expiration this week, I’d actually give some thought to rolling it over, even if in the money, if I can add another 1% ROI to the bottom line on that position. 

And I did try to get that rollover done today, but I may have been just a little too greedy.

With some cash available for next week, as well as some income producing possibilities with some potential rollovers, I don’t mind adding to that list.

With bank earnings beginning tomorrow, the Retail Sales Report and Janet Yellen speaking, in addition to the Rig Count, tomorrow may be a big day,.

Daily Market Update –  October 13, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a surprisingly flat day after a surprisingly weak day.

Once the FOMC Meeting minutes were released, which showed that there was a fairly strong contingent of voting members who believed that we were ready for an interest rate hike, I thought that the market might vote with its feet.

That’s especially the case as word came yesterday that retailers are getting ready for the Christmas season and are having a hard time finding seasonal employees, despite offering better wages than last season.

No doubt that is an inflationary pressure, the kind that has to be factored into the consumer equation.

Maybe the reaction is going to be delayed, as the futures this morning had been showing triple digit weakness.

At some point, all of this will be over, just as it was last year, except that we may still be placed into that waiting phase, where we again wonder when the next and the next interest rate increase will come, as now the expectation is for multiple, yet small increases in 2017.

That same expectation for 2016, which has yet to materialize has been a burden and also a gift when the expected hasn’t materialized.

With one position set for expiration this week, I’d actually give some thought to rolling it over, even if in the money, if I can add another 1% ROI to the bottom line on that position.

With some cash available for next week, as well as some income producing possibilities with some potential rollovers, I don’t mind adding to that list.

With bank earnings beginning tomorrow, the Retail Sales Report and Janet Yellen speaking, in addition to the Rig Count, tomorrow may be a big day, but let’s get through today first.

Daily Market Update –  October 12, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a surprisingly weak day in the market, coming right after a surprisingly strong day, that happened to see some of its gains lost in the final hour of trading.

There really wasn’t too much reason for either of those moves, as stocks simply followed oil again, as it had done for much of 2016, but not so much recently.

Yesterday was simply a bad day in oil and today, as is usually the case on Wednesday when inventory numbers are released one hour after the opening bell, there could easily be another large shift in prices and sentiment.

What really may matter though is Friday’s “Rig Count.”

That comes after lots of bank earnings and a Janet Yellen presentation, so Friday could be a big moving day.

If bank earnings and guidance are on the positive side and rig counts are going higher, whatever Janet Yellen’s prepared text may be, there is likely to be some additional emphasis on conditions becoming suitable to sustain an interest rate increase in the near future.

At this point, I think that the immediate and short term response will be a negative one, even though that would be entirely illogical.

What’s logic got to do with anything, anyway.

With yesterday’s oil decline, I sold puts in an old 2016 friend, once again.

By my last count, that’s the ninth time this year and I wouldn’t mind having an opportunity to do it so more as we count down 2016.

With yesterday’s decline, I don’t think there will be too much opportunity to have a week like last, when there was a chance or two to sell calls on uncovered positions, so it looks like a pretty boring week for the next few days.

There is a lone expiring position that was opened yesterday, but I actually wouldn’t mind having the chance to roll that over to the following week.

Next week, as the monthly option comes to its end, a number of positions that appeared to be assignment candidates are suddenly not so with some recent declines, but these days, a week is a long time, so I’ll keep fingers crossed on those, or at least for those to become continuing rollover candidates, as we await and see what this current earnings season will bring.

Today, the market did nothing and neither did 

It was all that simple. 

Daily Market Update –  October 12, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a surprisingly weak day in the market, coming right after a surprisingly strong day, that happened to see some of its gains lost in the final hour of trading.

There really wasn’t too much reason for either of those moves, as stocks simply followed oil again, as it had done for much of 2016, but not so much recently.

Yesterday was simply a bad day in oil and today, as is usually the case on Wednesday when inventory numbers are released one hour after the opening bell, there could easily be another large shift in prices and sentimernt.

What really may matter though is Friday’s “Rig Count.”

That comes after lots of bank earnings and a Janet Yellen presentation, so Friday could be a big moving day.

If bank earnings and guidance are on the positive side and rig counts are going higher, whatever Janet Yellen’s prepared text may be, there is likely to be some additional emphasis on conditions becoming suitable to sustain an interest rate increase in the near future.

At this point, I think that the immediate and short term response will be a negative one, even though that would be entirely illogical.

What’s logic got to do with anything, anyway.

With yesterday’s oil decline, I sold puts in an old 2016 friend, once again.

By my last count, that’s the ninth time this year and I wouldn’t mind having an opportunity to do it so more as we count down 2016.

With yesterday’s decline, I don’t think there will be too much opportunity to have a week like last, when there was a chance or two to sell calls on uncovered positions, so it looks like a pretty boring week for the next few days.

There is a lone expiring position that was opened yesterday, but I actually wouldn’t mind having the chance to roll that over to the following week.

Next week, as the monthly option comes to its end, a number of positions that appeared to be assignment candidates are suddenly not so with some recent declines, but these days, a week is a long time, so I’ll keep fingers crossed on those, or at least for those to become continuing rollover candidates, as we await and see what this current earnings season will bring.

Daily Market Update –  October 10, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a surprisingly strong day in the market, even as some of those gains were given up by the end of trading.

There wasn’t too much reason behind the gain, although it again was another example of oil and stocks getting back together, as oil prices have made the kind of comeback that wasn’t seen by many and did so for about the third time this year.

Every time oil is written off, it just comes back stronger than ever, as long as your time horizon is a short one.

Unless of course your time horizon was less than 24 hours, because today oil turned right around and took the stock market along with it.

Still, now having broken the $50 level, there are reasons to believe that OPEC and non-OPEC nations may be getting their acts together and realizing it’s better not to cheat.

For now, stocks seem to think that’s a good thing, but that can’t last unless there’s really a demand side driven increase in the price of oil.

With yesterday’s stock gains, I’d certainly like to see more, but not today, obviously.

I didn’t think that I was going to be spending any money this week. I just wanted to see those gains materialize so that there may be an opportunity to sell some calls on anything that has remained fallow.

Instead, there may have been reason to take advantage of the decline in oil prices today with that old friend.

With next week’s end of the monthly cycle and a number of expiring positions to come, there may be more to do, but this week, will otherwise be a very quiet one, although, now there’s at least one position to keep an eye upon.

That still means lots of watching and some hoping as Friday rolls around and banks get the earnings season underway and perhaps the official Retail Sales Report could give Janet Yellen some ammunition when she speaks later in the day to begin her campaign to justify a rate increase as soon as possible.

Daily Market Update –  October 10, 2016 (8:00 AM)

Yesterday was a surprisingly strong day in the market, even as some of those gains were given up by the end of trading.

There wasn’t too much reason behind the gain, although it again was another example of oil and stocks getting back together, as oil prices have made the kind of comeback that wasn’t seen by many and did so for about the third time this year.

Every time oil is written off, it just comes back stronger than ever, as long as your time horizon is a short one.

Still, now having broken the $50 level, there are reasons to believe that OPEC and non-OPEC nations may be getting their acts together and realizing it’s better not to cheat.

For now, stocks seem to think that’s a good thing, but that can’t last unless there’s really a demand side driven increase in the price of oil.

With yesterday’s stock gains, I’d certainly like to see more.

I don’t think that I’m going to be spending any money this week, so I just want to see those gains materialize so that there may be an opportunity to sell some calls on anything that has remained fallow.

With next week’s end of the monthly cycle and a number of expiring positions to come, there may be more to do, but this week, will otherwise be a very quiet one.

That means lots of watching and some hoping as Friday rolls around and banks get the earnings season underway and perhaps the official Retail Sales Report could give Janet Yellen some ammunition when she speaks later in the day to begin her campaign to justify a rate increase as soon as possible.

Daily Market Update –  October 10, 2016 (Close)

Last week provided some confusing data on the Employment Situation front, but markets were confused all week long.

This week may end up being less confusing, but we may have to wait until Friday to really get any of that clarity.

Friday is the day that the major money center banks release earnings and it will also be the day that the Retail Sales Report is released.

The latter is backward looking, but the former may offer some glimpse into what 2017 may have to offer with regard to economic growth.

After those are all done, then Janet Yellen addresses the Boston Federal Reserve’s conference with a real appropriate topic: "The Elusive Recovery."

We may get to find out on Friday morning how those big banks feel about their own upcoming business prospects.

A real economic recovery can’t have much chance if the banks don’t lead the way, so Friday morning may be an important one.

If the banks see good things ahead, markets may very well take note, but it’s unclear as to how they may take note.

Based on some of the uneasiness whenever it appeared that an interest rate increase was going to happen sooner rather than later, you could easily envision a market sell-off with any perceived economic strength.

If that’s the case, at some point, you would imagine that cooler heads would prevail, much as they did in February and then help to move the markets beyond their all time highs.

I do have some cash to spend this week, even as I don’t have too much interest in doing so. But when I also look at the fact that there are no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set to expire, I would then like to create my own opportunities.

With the market pointing toward a moderately positive open this morning, once again my preference for the generation of the weekly income I crave would have been through the sale of calls on uncovered positions.

But that didn’t happen today, even as the market almost ended with a triple digit move, after having taken last week off from such moves.

Some sustained moves higher would be very welcome and I would love to recreate last week’s experience.

I should qualify that ad say that I would like to recreate that experience, except without the experience of having opened that speculative new position at precisely the wrong time.

Daily Market Update –  October 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week provided some confusing data on the Employment Situation front, but markets were confused all week long.

This week may end up being less confusing, but we may have to wait until Friday to really get any of that clarity.

Friday is the day that the major money center banks release earnings and it will also be the day that the Retail Sales Report is released.

The latter is backward looking, but the former may offer some glimpse into what 2017 may have to offer with regard to economic growth.

After those are all done, then Janet Yellen addresses the Boston Federal Reserve’s conference with a real appropriate topic: “The Elusive Recovery.”

We may get to find out on Friday morning how those big banks feel about their own upcoming business prospects.

A real economic recovery can’t have much chance if the banks don’t lead the way, so Friday morning may be an important one.

If the banks see good things ahead, markets may very well take note, but it’s unclear as to how they may take note.

Based on some of the uneasiness whenever it appeared that an interest rate increase was going to happen sooner rather than later, you could easily envision a market sell-off with any perceived economic strength.

If that’s the case, at some point, you would imagine that cooler heads would prevail, much as they did in February and then help to move the markets beyond their all time highs.

I do have some cash to spend this week, even as I don’t have too much interest in doing so. But when I also look at the fact that there are no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set to expire, I would then like to create my own opportunities.

With the market pointing toward a moderately positive open this morning, once again my preference for the generation of the weekly income I crave would be through the sale of calls on uncovered positions.

Some sustained moves higher would be very welcome and I would love to recreate last week’s experience.

I should qualify that ad say that I would like to recreate that experience, except without the experience of having opened that speculative new position at precisely the wrong time.