Month: August 2016

Daily Market Update – August 8, 2016 (Close)

Last week ended on a really high note, but didn’t do too much to change the overall tone of the week, despite the market finishing at another record high.

All of that sounds a little contradictory, but the week was still one of ennui, despite the week ending Employment Situation Report.

With retailers beginning to report their earnings this week, it remains to be seen whether the consumer is really coming alive and whether they will serve as the catalyst that will really give the FOMC a reason to raise interest rates.

Markets generally agreed on Friday that it was time for those rates to go higher.

But while they’re increasingly comfortable with the idea, there still has to be the kind of data that supports an increase.

That wasn’t the case back in December 2015, when the FOMC very likely mis-read the future prospects of the economy.

With abysmal GDP numbers it would really help the FOMC out quite a bit if national retailers had something good to say.

Even if they have nothing good to report for the quarter just passed, if only they could find the silver lining heading into the final half of 2016.

I don’t have too much cash to invest this week and only have a single position expiring and 2 ex-dividend positions.

That combination would make me want to seek out some opportunity, but after Friday’s strong move higher it really awaits to be seen if there’s anything left at the moment.

Futures this morning seemed to suggest that we’re back to the listless trading that characterized most of the past 2 weeks in which the market had a consecutive losing streak while not really going down very much.

I’m likely to again be an observer, as much as I would like to open some new positions and that may again be the case tomorrow as the market stayed flat all throughout the session.

For those short the Marathon Oil puts, the company is ex-dividend next Monday.

For that reason, if faced with an assignment, I’m probably going to be more willing to take assignment rather than to roll it over, unless it’s very close to the strike.

In that case, the enhanced premium from rolling over of a volatile position may exceed the value of the dividend.

Otherwise, as is always the case, I would welcome the opportunity to sell calls on some uncovered positions and some more are within the price range where it may become possible, even as volatility is so very low.

Maybe tomorrow.

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Daily Market Update – August 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week ended on a really high note, but didn’t do too much to change the overall tone of the week, despite the market finishing at another record high.

All of that sounds a little contradictory, but the week was still one of ennui, despite the week ending Employment Situation Report.

With retailers beginning to report their earnings this week, it remains to be seen whether the consumer is really coming alive and whether they will serve as the catalyst that will really give the FOMC a reason to raise interest rates.

Markets generally agreed on Friday that it was time for those rates to go higher.

But while they’re increasingly comfortable with the idea, there still has to be the kind of data that supports an increase.

That wasn’t the case back in December 2015, when the FOMC very likely mis-read the future prospects of the economy.

With abysmal GDP numbers it would really help the FOMC out quite a bit if national retailers had something good to say.

Even if they have nothing good to report for the quarter just passed, if only they could find the silver lining heading into the final half of 2016.

I don’t have too much cash to invest this week and only have a single position expiring and 2 ex-dividend positions.

That combination would make me want to seek out some opportunity, but after Friday’s strong move higher it really awaits to be seen if there’s anything left at the moment.

Futures this morning seem to suggest that we’re back to the listless trading that characterized most of the past 2 weeks in which the market had a consecutive losing streak while not really going down very much.

I’m likely to again be an observer, as much as I would like to open some new positions.

For those short the Marathon Oil puts, the company is ex-dividend next Monday.

For that reason, if faced with an assignment, I’m probably going to be more willing to take assignment rather than to roll it over, unless it’s very close to the strike.

In that case, the enhanced premium from rolling over of a volatile position may exceed the value of the dividend.

Otherwise, as is always the case, I would welcome the opportunity to sell calls on some uncovered positions and some more are within the price range where it may become possible, even as volatility is so very low.

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Daily Market Update – August 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   INTC (8/3 $0.26), BP (8/3 $0.595)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – August 4, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday broke the streak of 7 straight days of losses, but it wasn’t a very powerful statement of buying strength.

Today was an even less of a statement.

Whatever there was yesterday was all on the heels of a rally in oil as everyone was piling on and some even talking about a $15 per barrel level.

That kind of unanimity is often a sure fire way to see just the opposite happen, but now we get to watch just how long that will last or whether the slide in oil will continue.

Other than the past 2 days the sharp decline in the price of oil has only been matched in direction by stocks and not in magnitude.

The past 2 days there wasn’t much in terms of magnitude, but the close association and moves back and forth in tandem were pretty convincing.

This morning both markets were fairly flat, although traders are awaiting an announcement from the Bank of England.

No one expected any kind of surprise, but there was reason to wait, especially as tomorrow can bring another big data release when the Employment Situation Report is released.

For the most part, other than retail earnings, which begin to get released next week and the week after, we are now done with most of the important earnings releases and at least the numbers and guidances haven’t been disappointing.

Even as GDP hasn’t pointed toward the kind of growth necessary to support an interest rate increase, corporate earnings aren’t totally embarrassing and they aren’t sending anyone into spasms of selling.

This looked as if it would end up as a week of no trades, which is the most painful experience I can imagine if there’s not much in the way of asset growth at the same time.

Somehow, there did come one opportunity to sell some calls on Weyerhauser, which reports earnings tomorrow morning and then goes ex-dividend in a month or so.

Not a great trade, but still a trade and done to get a little protection in the event of any weakness tomorrow and get paid while doing so.

All in all, it was just another example of turning a position more and more into a buy and hold kind of position, but for now, that’s good enough.

Still, even with that single trade, this would have been a good week to have closed up shop and gone to the beach.

I don’t know if next week will be any different, but as those retailers do begin releasing their earnings, it will be interesting to see the reaction, given that sector’s weakness this past week.

Some decent numbers, or at least a respite from the perceived bad news this week could be a broad catalyst that has been long missing from the market, even as it was setting new highs.

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Daily Market Update – August 4, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday broke the streak of 7 straight days of losses, but it wasn’t a very powerful statement of buying strength.

Whatever there was yesterday was all on the heels of a rally in oil as everyone was piling on and some even talking about a $15 per barrel level.

That kind of unanimity is often a sure fire way to see just the opposite happen, but now we get to watch just how long that will last or whether the slide in oil will continue.

Other than the past 2 days the sharp decline in the price of oil has only been matched in direction by stocks and not in magnitude.

The past 2 days there wasn’t much in terms of magnitude, but the close association and moves back and forth in tandem were pretty convincing.

This morning both markets are fairly flat, although traders are awaiting an announcement from the bank of England.

No one expects any kind of surprise, but there is reason to wait, especially as tomorrow can bring another big data release when the Employment Situation Report is released.

For the most part, other than retail earnings, which begin to get released next week and the week after, we are now done with most of the important earnings releases and at least the numbers and guidances haven’t been disappointing.

Even as GDP hasn’t pointed toward the kind of growth necessary to support an interest rate increase, corporate earnings aren’t totally embarrassing and they aren’t sending anyone into spasms of selling.

This looks as if it will end up as a week of no trades, which is the most painful experience I can imagine if there’s not much in the way of asset growth at the same time.

So far, and likely for the next 2 days, this would have been a good day to have closed up shop and gone to the beach.

I don’t know if next week will be any different, but as those retailers do begin releasing their earnings, it will be interesting to see the reaction, given that sector’s weakness this past week.

Some decent numbers, or at least a respite from the perceived bad news this week could be a broad catalyst that has been long missing from the market, even as it was setting new highs.

.

Daily Market Update – August 3, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday made it 7 straight days of losses and it’s still barely noticeable, despite a larger than lately kind of loss to close the day.

This morning futures were again lower, but only mildly so and oil was heading higher.

Yesterday the market did seem to take its cues from oil and when the oil rally faded, so too did the market start its own sell off.

Today, when oil rallied, so too did the stock market..

So much for the two going their own ways.

yesterday’s sell off wasn’t steep enough to be enticing in any way and it only served to make it more difficult to find any way to sell calls on uncovered positions.

Today’s pretty boring trading didn’t help very much, either.

Retailers were hit especially hard yesterday in what made little sense and they were a little better today, but it was still oil that looked like it was the market maker for today, at least. 

With no trade opportunities today, I suspect that I am done for the week, but given that the market closed on an upswing this afternoon and that Friday could bring some employment surprises, I’m still holding out some hope of generating something other than dividend income this week.

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Daily Market Update – August 3, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday made it 7 straight days of losses and it’s still barely noticeable, despite a larger than lately kind of loss to close the day.

This morning futures are again lower, but only mildly so and oil is heading higher.

Yesterday the market did seem to take its cues from oil and when the oil rally faded, so too did the market start its own sell off.

That sell off wasn’t steep enough to be enticing in any way and it only served to make it more difficult to find any way to sell calls on uncovered positions.

Retailers were hit especially hard yesterday in what made little sense.

Perhaps that should have been the case when last Friday’s GDP data was released, or perhaps that should be the case when this Friday’s Employment Situation Report is released.

Or maybe it should just wait until retailers are about to begin their earnings announcements over the following couple of weeks.

But no, it was yesterday and they fell well out of proportion to the rest of the declining market, despite likely having no reason to follow oil lower.

Today’s futures may be pointing to an eighth consecutive day lower, but the decline is very slight.

I don’t see many trading opportunities today, so it will likely be a day of standing by and waiting for a surprise that won’t come.

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