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Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM) The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break. Today, energy and commodities took a break right alongside stocks. For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike. You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two. What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode. Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016. Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen. A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on. Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors. For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard. Today, there was nothing to take anyone by surprise during the first day of that meeting and the market traded in a really narrow range. The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month. Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017. Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President. If she skips that part of the conversation and simply speaks up the hawkish stance most everyone is now pushing, the market will probably move higher. If that’s the case, we are setting ourselves up for a classic “sell on the news,” but the news may still be months away. . . |
