Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)
The futures were again pointing to a flat open this morning.
I think I said that yesterday, as well, and could easily have said the same thing just about every morning for the past 7 weeks.
Still, if you look at the net result of the past 7 weeks it’s fairly considerable.
For anyone who remembers, that’s the way it was back in 2007, as well.
There was nothing of great significance going on, only a slow move higher and higher until reaching a top in October 2007.
I’m not even thinking of drawing a parallel and couldn’t even begin to imagine what could be the equivalent catalyst to make things crumble.
Instead, I just want to have an idea of what of insignificance is right around the corner and to which the market will react in one way or another.
Other than interest rates and the price of oil, the world, at least from the view of economists is pretty serene right now.
That’s not to say that it’s all good, just that it’s balmy and quiet out there.
This looks like another week of no trades, but at least there may be an opportunity to get some principal back with the expiration of some short puts on Marathon Oil.
I would still like to keep that position going, though, but if it does finally expire because I’m unable to wring another weekly 1% ROI or more out of it, I would welcome the opportunity to do it again and again.
Otherwise, it may just be more sitting around and wondering alongside everyone else just what is going on.
I was hoping, as the day began yesterday, that a couple of positions were in line to have some calls sold upon them, but they moved a bit out of contention yesterday.
We’ll see what today brings, but even as the week is still shaping up to be a good one on the basis of net asset value, I do want to generate more income than has been the case this week and do want more and more of those positions being put to work.
There are some more big earnings due this week, but once this week is over, there shouldn’t be too much to shake markets anymore until the next go around, at least from an earnings perspective.
When it will all be over, I think that this earnings season will be judged as being alright, but that doesn’t take into account the less than optimistic guidance just about everyone has served up.
In my mind, that sets us up for some strong moves in a few months as investors are surprised when companies report better than expected numbers, as there has to be something that is making FOMC members believe that an interest rate hike is going to be warranted before 2016 comes to a conclusion.