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Daily Market Update – June 30, 2016 (Close) After the past 3 days of gains, the pain felt from last Friday and this past Monday is almost erased. At this point, as the morning’s futures were seeking to reduce the loss even more, the market was only 2% lower from where it left off last Thursday. After hearing about how the 2 days of losses were the worst of the year, we are now hearing that the past 2 days were the best gains of the year. Make that 3 days. Well, at least since February, when Jamie Dimon may have single handedly turned the market around by spending $26 million of his own funds to pick up shares of his own company, that he felt had suddenly become well under-valued. A couple of days ago that company was close to being back at its February 11th levels, but then broad based buying set in. While yesterday’s close also had more buying characterize it, those closing gains weren’t as strong as the previous days, but the futures market is still looking to add more. Today’s close, though, was still moving higher and higher. With this kind of buying, or selling, for that matter, you never really know what will come first. Will traders try to capitalize and head in the other direction in the fear that others will beat them to it and leave them holding the bag, or do they pile on for fear of getting left out from the celebrations ahead? They certainly didn’t head in the other direction today and the buying strength at the close didn’t indicate any reversal for tomorrow, either. As the market does head higher the technicians also begin exerting their influence and the emotions of fear and greed may take a back seat as traders have to deal with those annoying resistance levels. Breaking one of those levels isn’t a guarantee of continued climbs higher, particularly as there is often testing of the level, but if the 2137 level is broke, tested and broken again, there may be lots of uncharted territory for further upside. Those are lots of ifs, but before that point, is the 2112 level of just a week ago. So it may be interesting to watch the market work its way higher as it ended today less than 1% below that 2012 level. At this point I wouldn’t mind some consolidation and building a base or a support level and then trying to climb anew from there. In the meantime, while overall volatility is dropping rapidly, some sectors still remain very attractive, even as their risk seems to be becoming less and less. That may be where the opportunity awaits and that is where the opportunity has already been. |
