Month: May 2016

Daily Market Update – May 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday:

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   BP (5/4 $0.595), INTC (5/4 $0.26), STX (5/6 $0.63)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – May 5, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another of those weak days that have been happening lately.

It looked as if oil was leading the way lower, but when ADP released some disappointing numbers, there was no real change.

It was, as I thought heading into that report and then heading into Friday’s Employment Situation Report, that no one really knows what to think and do in the event of either good news or bad news.

As some are beginning to question whether the FOMC is really driven by data, there is more reason for uncertainty.

It’s comforting to know that there are rules in place, even if you can’t understand the rules.

It’s a little more unsettling when there may be the appearance of arbitrariness.

For some, that explains the interest rate hike executed toward the end of 2015 and may be the basis for any other increase in 2016.

Yesterday’s ADP didn’t seem like very good news and with oil prices rising you do have to wonder where the spending will come from that will push a consumer led economy forward.

I wonder that.

Futures were sharply higher in the early part of the session as oil was much higher. However, as the session wore on, albeit still early in the session, those stock gains were getting smaller and smaller.

The triple digit gain in the DJIA futures had been cut in half while oil and precious metals were still climbing.

As the day wore on that gain disappeared in its entirety and then finally eked out a very small gain on the DJIA, while losing elsewhere.

With now only 1 days remaining in the week, it looks like this will be another that’s been seen all too often in 2016 for me.

No trades.

Luckily there were 3 ex-dividend positions as a source of cash, but that’s not really enough.

Next week there aren’t any on schedule, yet.

There just didn’t appear to be any really good entry opportunity this week and as we get ready to begin trading on Thursday, so far I’m glad that i didn’t go after anything.

It certainly would have been nice to have bought something, or even better to have sold calls on an existing positions, but the dynamic has been very week to this point.

Next week may be a bit more interesting as retailers start telling their stories. So far, there’s no reason to believe it will be any good, as today the retailers took a big blow.

This week was really just one boring story after another. Hopefully that will be different in just a few days, but at this point, I’d just like to see the May 2016 option cycle come to a close.

That’s only because I have a few positions in play and expiring at the end of the cycle and those could offer the only chances to get something meaningful done over the next 2 weeks.

Daily Market Update – May 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was another of those weak days that have been happening lately.

It looked as if oil was leading the way lower, but when ADP released some disappointing numbers, there was no real change.

It was, as I thought heading into that report and then heading into Friday’s Employment Situation Report, that no one really knows what to think and do in the event of either good news or bad news.

As some are beginning to question whether the FOMC is really driven by data, there is more reason for uncertainty.

It’s comforting to know that there are rules in place, even if you can’t understand the rules.

It’s a little more unsettling when there may be the appearance of arbitrariness.

For some, that explains the interest rate hike executed toward the end of 2015 and may be the basis for any other increase in 2016.

Yesterday’s ADP didn’t seem like very good news and with oil prices rising you do have to wonder where the spending will come from that will push a consumer led economy forward.

I wonder that.

Futures were sharply higher in the early part of the session as oil was much higher. However, as the session wore on, albeit still early in the session, those stock gains were getting smaller and smaller.

The triple digit gain in the DJIA futures had been cut in half while oil and precious metals were still climbing.

With now only 2 days remaining in the week, it looks like this will be another that’s been seen all too often in 2016 for me.

No trades.

Luckily there were 3 ex-dividend positions as a source of cash, but that’s not really enough.

There just didn’t appear to be any really good entry opportunity this week and as we get ready to begin trading on Thursday, so far I’m glad that i didn’t go after anything.

It certainly would have been nice to have bought something, or even better to have sold calls on an existing positions, but the dynamic has been very week to this point.

Next week may be a bit more interesting as retailers start telling their stories.

This week was really just one boring story after another. Hopefully that will be different in just a few days, but at this point, I’d just like to see the May 2016 option cycle come to a close.

That’s only because I have a few positions in play and expiring at the end of the cycle and those could offer the only chances to get something meaningful done over the next 2 weeks.

Daily Market Update – May 4, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday wasn’t a very good day as the market decided to once again follow the path of oil.

This morning looked no better, as the losses were mounting and it got no better as the hours mounted.

The past two days come as lots of inconsequential earnings were being released.

Unfortunately, those are the ones that have been better than expected and were offering some decent guidance.

But being inconsequential, they’re inconsequential.

This week we may get something of consequence as the Employment Situation Report is released on Friday after seeing some disappointing numbers as the ADP Report was released.

It’s hard to even take a guess as to how the market would elect to receive good or bad news, although this morning the reaction was actually fairly muted as the market was already sharply down before ADP.

We all know what the FOMC wants and we all expect that it has to happen sooner or later, but will traders get enthused if the economy isn’t performing up to expectations and we get to continue along with these historically low interest rates?

That’s been the case for years now and it has to be both tiring and exasperating.

It’s like wanting your young child to always remain nothing more than someone with potential, but always being happy when the chance to pursue that potential is thwarted or never even arrives.

Watching the futures this morning was portending what I’ll likely be doing the rest of the day.

Watching.

Maybe I should have taken the time to go out and get some new glasses and at least make the day worthwhile to a small degree.

Daily Market Update – May 4, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday wasn’t a very good day as the market decided to once again follow the path of oil.

This morning looks no better, as the losses are mounting.

The past two days come as lots of inconsequential earnings are being released.

Unfortunately, those are the ones that have been better than expected and are offering some decent guidance.

But being inconsequential, they’re inconsequential.

This week we may get something of consequence as the Employment Situation Report is released on Friday and maybe even something this morning as the ADP Report is released.

It’s hard to even take a guess as to how the market would elect to receive good or bad news.

We all know what the FOMC wants and we all expect that it has to happen sooner or later, but will traders get enthused if the economy isn’t performing up to expectations and we get to continue along with these historically low interest rates?

That’s been the case for years now and it has to be both tiring and exasperating.

It’s like wanting your young child to always remain nothing more than someone with potential, but always being happy when the chance to pursue that potential is thwarted or never even arrives.

Watching the futures this morning is portending what I’ll likely be doing the rest of the day.

Watching.

Maybe I’ll take the time to go out and get some new glasses and at least make the day worthwhile to a small degree.

Daily Market Update – May 3, 2016 (Close)

Last week wasn’t a very good week unless you were long oil and commodities.

As this morning’s futures were shaping up, it’s hard to know whether to root for oil or against it, if you also have a portfolio with lots of other things.

Yesterday, as the market gained more than 100 points, it did so while moving opposite the direction of oil and commodities.

This morning, it looked as if the market wanted to give back everything in gained yesterday and get reacquainted with an old friend.

Both were moving lower this morning although there isn’t much in the way of news.

In the case of oil, even if you eliminate the supply and demand parts of the equation, you could understand why some would be thinking about taking profits after a nearly 80% gain in 2016.

I know that I’d be tempted, regardless of what the fundamentals were saying.

This week, at least until we get to Friday’s Employment Situation Report, there really isn’t very much to get excited about.

Earnings keep pouring in, but it has been a while since Clorox held the key to anything.

It’s nice that they beat, but they are as systemically important as is Facebook.

Banks, home sellers, retailers and industrials really matter.

Clorox with better than expected earnings? 

Not so much.

As it would turn out, oil stayed lower and so did the market, giving back a little more than it gained on Monday.

There was only one basically bright spot today, and that was Apple.

I watched Tim Cook’s interview yesterday evening and wondered who is now telling the truth.

He avowed no such fears about China as did Carl Icahn and I was inclined to put more faith in his statements, as were traders today, even while everything else went south.

With that, I may still consider opening a position in Apple before it is ex-dividend this week, as it gets ready to move beyond 8 straight losing sessions.

Otherwise, even as more bargains may have appeared today, I never felt overly anxious to jump into the water, as I hold on tight to cash until something suggests its reasonably safe to get into the water and easy to get out.

Daily Market Update – May 3, 2016 (8:30 AM)

Last week wasn’t a very good week unless you were long oil and commodities.

As this morning’s futures are shaping up, it’s hard to know whether to root for oil or against it, if you also have a portfolio with lots of other things.

Yesterday, as the market gained more than 100 points, it did so while moving opposite the direction of oil and commodities.

This morning, it looks as if the market wants to give back everything in gained yesterday and get reacquainted with an old friend.

Both are moving lower this morning although there isn’t much in the way of news.

In the case of oil, even if you eliminate the supply and demand parts of the equation, you could understand why some would be thinking about taking profits after a nearly 80% gain in 2016.

I know that I’d be tempted, regardless of what the fundamentals were saying.

This week, at least until we get to Friday’s Employment Situation Report, there really isn’t very much to get excited about.

Earnings keep pouring in, but it has been a while since Clorox held the key to anything.

It’s nice that they beat, but they are as systemically important as is Facebook.

Banks, home sellers, retailers and industrials really matter.

Clorox with better than expected earnings? 

Not so much.

I watched Tim Cook’s interview yesterday evening and wondered who is now telling the truth.

He avowed no such fears about China as did Carl Icahn and I’m inclined to put more faith in his statements.

With that, I may still consider opening a position in Apple before it is ex-dividend this week, as it gets ready to trade today after 8 straight losing sessions.

Otherwise, even as more bargains may be appearing today, I don’t think that I’ll be overly anxious to jump into the water, as I hold on tight to cash until something suggests its reasonably safe to get into the water and easy to get out.

Daily Market Update – May 2, 2016 (Close)

Last week wasn’t a very good week unless you were long oil and commodities.

I can’t complain personally, but that’s because I wasn’t complaining when oil and commodities were leading the market and more importantly, me,  lower.

For now, the trend is higher, but what has me somewhat concerned is that the stock market may finally be deciding that it’s time to break the irrational association it has had with input prices for quite a while.

It may be thinking that over as the S&P 500 was only about 3% away from its all time high as the day began..

That puts it within easy reach of anything. Easy reach of a new all time high as well as easy reach of another 10% correction.

Today it chose to get closer to that all time high and it did so as oil was falling.

Go figure.

But as we watch oil and the markets, you just knew that sooner or later the market would realize that rising energy and commodity prices weren’t a good thing.

But while knowing that had to be the case, there was a time when you just knew that the stock market would finally realize that falling input prices were a good thing, but it didn’t really work out that way for the longest time

This morning, the market, was slightly higher, as oil was going nowhere.

We’ll see what that means as the week progresses. Today it meant that the market wanted a reason to make up for the weakness in the latter half of last week.

With 3 ex-dividend positions this week, but no expiring positions, I’d like to add to the list of income producing stocks for the week, but would much rather be able to sell calls on any uncovered positions, even if tying them down for a while with the use of longer term expiration dates.

I’m definitely not adverse to spending money and dipping into a depleted cash reserve, but some of the uncertainty about how the market will react if oil does go higher and Friday’s employment Situation Report, do have me concerned about risk and reward.

Last week stocks decided not to follow oil higher, as it began to approach $50/barrel.

This week, there are lots of earnings reports, but not many of real consequence, as retailers begin to report next week.

Instead, what we do have is another Employment Situation Report where we may get to find out if there are even more people who can decide not to spend the money that they now have.

And of course, we still have oil.

With talk now of a possible interest rate increase coming at the June 2016 FOMC Statement release, it will be very interesting to see the market’s reaction if there is a strong employment number on Friday, particularly as a rational person would try to square that away with the lackluster GDP number.

Of course, that won’t happen, because all anyone cares about anymore is the latest number and not how the pieces all fir or don’t fit together.

I’m expecting a strong report on Friday and would think that the market might take it well, in the realization that they would still have nearly 2 months at current rates.

That, of course, presupposes that the FOMC would wait until June, as it had given some hint that they wouldn’t rule out an interim increase.

That, I think, would spook markets.

For now, I don’t see much to act as a catalyst in either direction, unless oil continues its march higher and higher.

On the other hand, if oil continues lower, the market may finally realize that low oil prices can only be good under these circumstances.

Daily Market Update – May 2, 2016 (8:30 AM)

Last week wasn’t a very good week unless you were long oil and commodities.

I can’t complain personally, but that’s because I wasn’t complaining when oil and commodities were leading the market and more importantly, me,  lower.

For now, the trend is higher, but what has me somewhat concerned is that the stock market may finally be deciding that it’s time to break the irrational association it has had with input prices for quite a while.

It may be thinking that over as the S&P 500 is only about 3% away from its all time high.

That puts it within easy reach of anything. Easy reach of a new all time high as well as easy reach of another 10% correction.

But as we watch oil and the markets, you just knew that sooner or later the market would realize that rising energy and commodity prices weren’t a good thing.

But while knowing that had to be the case, there was a time when you just knew that the stock market would finally realize that falling input prices were a good thing, but it didn’t really work out that way for the longest time

This morning, the market, is slightly higher, as oil is going nowhere.

We’ll see what that means as the week progresses.

With 3 ex-dividend positions this week, but no expiring positions, I’d like to add to the list of income producing stocks for the week, but would much rather be able to sell calls on any uncovered positions, even if tying them down for a while with the use of longer term expiration dates.

I’m definitely not adverse to spending money and dipping into a depleted cash reserve, but some of the uncertainty about how the market will react if oil does go higher and Friday’s employment Situation Report, do have me concerned about risk and reward.

Last week stocks decided not to follow oil higher, as it began to approach $50/barrel.

This week, there are lots of earnings reports, but not many of real consequence, as retailers begin to report next week.

Instead, what we do have is another Employment Situation Report where we may get to find out if there are even more people who can decide not to spend the money that they now have.

And of course, we still have oil.

With talk now of a possible interest rate increase coming at the June 2016 FOMC Statement release, it will be very interesting to see the market’s reaction if there is a strong employment number on Friday, particularly as a rational person would try to square that away with the lackluster GDP number.

Of course, that won’t happen, because all anyone cares about anymore is the latest number and not how the pieces all fir or don’t fit together.

I’m expecting a strong report on Friday and would think that the market might take it well, in the realization that they would still have nearly 2 months at current rates.

That, of course, presupposes that the FOMC would wait until June, as it had given some hint that they wouldn’t rule out an interim increase.

That, I think, would spook markets.

For now, I don’t see much to act as a catalyst in either direction, unless oil continues its march higher and higher.