Daily Market Update – May 16, 2016 (Close)
Earnings, earnings and more earnings last week.
As opposed to the previous week when the earnings really didn’t matter, last week the market really did care about what the retailers had to say.
They cared, but they didn’t like what they heard, even as Friday’s Retail Sales report wasn’t that bad.
Something has to be amiss to account for a seeming disconnect between what the likes of Macy’s says and what the official government statistics say.
Maybe we’ll get some insight this week as there are lots more retailer earnings to come.
There is also the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes, so maybe there may be some more insight there, as one Federal Reserve Governor just suggested that there still may be room for 2 or 3 rate increase still in 2016.
That comes now as the conventional wisdom is saying that a June 2016 rate hike is off the table.
I have some money and am willing to spend it on some new positions, but with about 8 contracts expiring this week, I’d much rather have a chance for some rollovers or see some assignments.
I actually did try to rollover the newly ex-dividend Marathon Oil position again today, but may have been a bit too greedy and never did get the trade closed.
This morning futures were completely flat, even as there is some optimism over where oil was headed next.
Goldman Sachs had issued a positive outlook, calling for a $60 price, although 2 things should be considered.
The first is that Goldman Sachs has had a fairly abysmal track record on commodities over the past year, including oil.
The second is that the Goldman Sachs analysts have missed the 80% or so rise in West Texas Intermediate crude oil in 2016.
It may be a little bit like Stanley Druckenmiller coming out as a gold bull the previous week.
Maybe the easy money has already been made.
But with strong oil all through the session and a further biog boost given by Warren Buffett and news that he picked up a big position in Apple and was willing to bankroll Dan Gilbert’s pursuit of Yahoo, the market was in a jolly mood all day long.
From my perspective, if I’m going to sit around all day long and do nothing, I’d rather make some money in the process.