Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)
Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.
Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.
That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.
But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.
In that release may be some glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.
Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.
I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there isn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.
Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.
Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.
If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.
I don’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I may consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.
Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.
It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.
It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.