Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)
Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.
This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.
The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.
Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.
All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.
This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading is more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.
This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.
The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.
Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.
So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.
I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday.
I had an uneasy feeling during most of the day expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.
But they still weren’t looking good enough.
This morning’s futures trading may make some of those look even better, so it may be a little bit harder to resist.
However, in the bigger picture, you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.
This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.