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Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (7:30 AM ) Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday? Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected. Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious. Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time. That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher. Not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, but it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy. Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy. The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC. This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions. Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that. With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium. I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading. As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading. The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade. Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all. . . |
