Week In Review – November 16 – 20, 2015


Option to Profit

Week in Review


NOVEMBER 16 – 20, 2015


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Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 16 – 20, 2015

< strong>After a terrible week last week, this week could just as easily have been that way, but instead was strong throughout the week.

It could easily have sold off upon the release of the FOMC minutes, but now seems ready to accept what we all knew had to be coming sooner, rather than later.

There was only one new position for the week, but despite rising 1.7%, it could keep up with the market that nearly erased the entire loss from the previous week.

The adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 rose a very impressive 3.3% on the week, after having fallen an equally impressive 3.6% the pror week.

But it was still one of those weeks where surpassing was only in relative tems as those positions were 1.5% lower for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 3.6% lower and the adjusted S&P 500 was 2.9% lower.

Energy and commodirties continued to be weak, but retail wasn’t as bad as had been the case the prior week.

For the year the 71 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 313.8% performance differential. 

This was yet another week where there really wasn’t too much in the way of real economic news, but the market didn’t really seem to need much in the way of real economic news.

After getting off to a really good start on Monday, it looked as if it would do the same on Tuesday, but then backed away from the gains it had hoped to add on.

What made the week really impressive, beyond the 3.3% gain, was how it came back after having given up on that Tuesday rally.

Also, with release of the FOMC minutes and the clearly hawkish tone of the members, the market didn’t shrink away and head into a deep sell-off, as it had some other times.

That’s different.

Even though it may be hard to see the justiication for a rate increase at this time, the market is now ready for it.

It had been ready for it back in September, as well and then changed its mind and took us into our first real correction in years. 

What’s fascinating is that the market correction didn’t last long, but if you still look at the components of that market, the individual corrections in so many of those stocks continues, as the breadth is very, very narrow.

Who knows where the wind will blow next, but I was happy with the week, especially in being able to at least get an assignment of the single poisition opened and being able to roll all of the expiring positions over.

Next week is a holiday shortened week and so premiums will be a little bit lower, in addition to being dragged down by the low volatility.

With a little bit of cash receycled, I wouldn’t mind spending some money, although as is usually the case after a quick run higher, I would much rather see some of the gains given back before spending too much.

With only 2 positions set to expire next week, the likelihood is that if I can identify a purchase on Monday, i would try to look for a weekly expiration, otherwise, it may make more sense to look at extended weekly expirations and to spend more time thinking about enjoying the upcoming holiday



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  MS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  CSCO (1/15/16), F 912/18/15)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  WY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: STX

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MS

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: MRO (11/16 $0.05)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   MAT (11/23 $0.38), KO (11/27 $0.33)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, JCP, JOY, KM
I, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.