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Daily Market Update – November 11, 2015 (7:30 AM)
For a while, it looked like yesterday might serve to heap on to Monday’s significant loss. There wasn’t too much of a reason for what was seen on Monday, but by mid-morning of Tuesday the decline seemed to run out of steam. There wasn’t much reason for it to have continued and there wasn’t much reason for it to have stopped, although some technicians could point to a very minor point of support at about 17663 on the DJIA, although they would be hard pressed to find anything really similar on the S&P 500. Sometimes things just happen. This morning, in the early futures trading, it appears as if the trend higher that started yesterday morning was going to continue, but there’s really nothing to cause any significant kind of move in either direction as we await the flow of national retailer earnings that really started this morning. What is needed from those retailers is collective optimism and not just cheery optimism regarding the future coming from the more high end among those in that sector. That cheeriness also can’t be based on higher per share profits, but rather from increasing revenue. Investors might even be willing to accept lower earnings per share if there is some tangible increase on the top line, especially for those companies that can report relatively clean top line numbers and not have to drag currency exchange into the discussion. For the market to take a cue from retailers offering a positive view of what awaits them in 2016 there has to be some good news across the board, but especially at the middle level retailers. In essence, people have to demonstrate that they are not only back at work and collecting a paycheck once again, but that they are also confident enough in being able to hold onto that job for a while, so that they could do something with those paychecks other than paying down debt. That’s something that’s been missing from the equation even as the unemployment rate begins to fall close to the levels that we usually refer to as “structural.” It looks as if this going to end up being a very quiet week for personal trading. While there are still some opportunities available with some ex-dividend positions, at this point, if those are going to become actual trades, the greatest likelihood is that they would be paired with call sales for Thanksgiving week or beyond. If there are no new positions opened today, that theme may continue through next week, with sights being set beyond next week’s monthly expiration and more toward December extended weekly options. |
