Week in Review – November 2 – 6, 2015


Option to Profit

Week in Review


NOVEMBER 2 – 6, 2015


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Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 2 – 6, 2015

The week started off with lots of promise and ended with a fizzle, but saw the market probably do the right thing heading into the Employment Situation Report on Friday.

There was only 1 new position opened for the week and it surpassed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.1% and the adjusted S&P 500 by 1.3% .

That single position was 1.1% higher for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 1.0% higher and the adjusted S&P 500 was 0.2% lower.

That large discrepancy between adjusted and unadjusted performance is related to the timing of the purchase of that single position which happened on Tuesday, rather than on Monday when the market had its large gain.

Once again energy and commodities continued their weakness, despite having dome mid-week strength.

For the year the 70 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 334.5% performance differential. 

The big news for the week was the Employment Situation Report, but it seems as if the market completely discounted the good news in its early trading for the week and then ended up actually taking it for what it was.

Good news.

This was yet another week of no real news, other than for Friday’s Employment Situation Report. Although there were lots of earnings reports, the reality is that Facebook doesn’t really matter as far as being a barometer of things.

Next week, though, as retailers do begin releasing their earnings, those could very well be the barometer that we and more importantly, the FOMC, have been looking for.

With a very strong gain in employment, well above the threshold that the FOMC has set, some strong retail numbers could finally convince everyone that the time has finally come for that interest rate increase.

If it does finally come in December, the IMF and ECB can’t get too upset with us, as we came close to waiting and holding off until 2016 as could possibly have been the case.

With only a single new position opened this past week and 2 assignments, there will be a little more added to the cash reserve, which is something that I’ve wanted to see for quite some time.

So far, it has worked out well borrowing from myself, in essence the equivalent of having used margin, in order to fuel some new position purchases over the past 2 months.

With those assignments and the rollovers for the week, in addition to the 2 ex-dividend positions, I finished the week reasonably satisfied, although I would have liked it if the week hadn’t gotten off to such a strong start and I could have perhaps added some of those ex-dividend trades.

I was also a little disappointed in not being able to sell any options on uncovered positions as the trades I had put in hoping to get made just wilted away as the week came to its end.

Next week, with cash in hand, I am definitely on the look out for some good reason to spend. With no contracts expiring next week I would like to be able to find a way to generate some cash from the money pile, but again, I’m not prone to being reckless with that money.

My hope is that there is some weakness to begin the week, just as I had hoped would have happened this week.

There are a couple of potential dividend plays next week and I think my focus will continue in that area, especially as volatility has again fallen so low.

Given how well the market seems to have accepted the good employment numbers, I think that it may be in a state of mind to act very rationally if retailers do start reporting good numbers next week. 

A little good news on the retail front could be just the thing to send the market beyond its August highs.

While that’s sad for volatility, it may be just the thing to take us into the holidays.


This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  MS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BBY (11/27), WMT (12/11)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: F

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: INTC, MS

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: INTC (11/4 $0.24), BP (11/4 $0.60)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   IP (11/12 $0.49)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.