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Daily Market Update – August 6, 2015 (9:15 AM)
After attending last night’s Gordon Lightfoot concert I feel like a young man, again. Not that the music was invigorating, but because the average age in the crowd must have been in the 70s and instead of smartphone charging stations, there were hearing aid and oxygen tank refill stations spread throughout the venue. It was all a question of comparables. By comparison I felt pretty young. The concert, as expected, was about as invigorating as this market has been, which is to say, not all all. It was disappointing to see yesterday’s early gains evaporate so quickly as it followed oil and energy prices down the drain. It’s hard to understand why this market is taking a different path from other markets that have been the beneficiaries of lower energy prices. But, by the same token, it’s hard to understand why this economy hasn’t gotten a kick start from those same lower energy prices, so maybe the market is only reflecting what it sees and what it foresees. Tomorrow brings the Employment SItuation Report and following yesterday’s early reaction to the ADP Report, which delivered some minor disappointment, as the loss of jobs in the energy sector lowered numbers, it’s probable that a similar disappointment tomorrow may also bring market gains. Otherwise, it continues to be a typical summer where there is less news than is usually the case, especially once August rolls around and most of Europe closes down. While the data will continue coming in, there will either have to be a significant shift in the direction of the economy demonstrating some real growth, or the FOMC has to abandon its claim to being data dependent. They may just have to say we know what’s best for the economy and we’re not going to wait for things to happen. That might just be the best thing. There’s not necessarily anything wrong with a beneficent dictator and at least a rise in interest rates would get us temporarily to stop playing mind games and instead focus on metrics that matter. With two days of trading left to go there’s still some reason to be hopeful that the week may see either assignment or rollover of what few positions are set to expire. Who knows, maybe even another call sale on an uncovered position, as well. That would be nice, but certainly not something worth predicting, because the market has been beyond predictable of late, other than it hasn’t been very forgiving.
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