|
Daily Market Update – March 3, 2015 (9:15 AM)
It’s probably a good thing that the NASDAQ broke 5000 yesterday. That at least is giving everyone something to talk about and a chance to reflect over the past 15 years in an effort to explain why 2015 is different from 2000. All you really need to do to see the difference is to watch the clips from 2000 and compare the neck wrinkles before and after. Trying to compare hair color before and after would lead you to believe that there has been no change. While NASDAQ 5000 is the big story that gives an opportunity to ignore discussing what happened yesterday everywhere else, as the market went up 155 points for no reason at all. Along with stocks bonds and energy were big movers yesterday and sometimes it’s just as difficult to understand those moves, either. This morning interest rates are continuing their move higher, although just edging up at the moment, but still a long, long way from where they were to start 2014 at 3%. As the interest rate climbs higher, perhaps Stanley Fischer’s comment last Friday will hold more true than the one Janet Yellen offered on Wednesday, as again there’s lots of speculation regarding an interest rate hike by June. At some point those interest rates become competition for stocks, but it has been so long since that’s been the case. For now it’s just something that people keep their eye on as the overall sentiment continues to be that the bond traders and the ones who live and breathe interest rates are the ones best positioned to really know the future. Based on the continuing stream of data, despite more and better paying jobs, there is still very little indication of inflationary pressures, with the exception of what Wal-Mart and now others may be generating at the level of entry wages. Those relatively large percentage increases in pay should have a greater impact on the consumer economy than all of the trickle down over the past 30 years. I know that if I received a $100 stock dividend each week I would be much less likely to spend it than if the $100 weekly raise I received happened to represent more than 15% of my salary. So while this morning looks as if it is going to take a little bit of a break from yesterday’s surprisingly big move to the upside there seems to be plenty of reason to just watch. I was glad to be able to add some positions into next week’s expirations and hope that this week’s Employment Situation Report will bring the week to an end that sees its share of assignments and rollovers, just as had been the case throughout February.
|
