Week in Review – January 19 – 23, 2015

 

 

Option to Profit Week in
Review –  January 19 – 23,  2015
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 2 3 2  /  0 1  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

January 19 – 23, 2015

After a fairly miserable beginning to 2015 we were due for something good sooner or later.

With 3 new positions added this week, all within about the first hour of the week’s opening bell, those positions ended the week 1.4% higher. However, that wasn’t enough to beat the S&P 500 which was 1.6% higher for the week on both adjusted and unadjusted bases.

After 3 successive down weeks, yet existing positions nicely outperforming the market, this week there was some catch up, as existing positions were still 1.2% higher, but trailed the market’s performance by 0.4%, as can usually be expected when markets are strongly higher.

Two of the new positions for the week were assigned with closed positions for 2015  3.8% higher, as compared to the 2.2% advance for the time adjusted market, representing a 76.2% difference

 

While the big news for the week was the ECB finally embracing Quantitative Easing, despite the likelihood that their doing so won’t have any positive impact on the US markets, we acted as if it would, at least for a very short period of time.

I’m not complaining, as I like anything that sends portfolio values higher, but the lack of follow through to end the week, especially a week that was generally positive even before the announcement, was a little disappointing.

However, on a positive note, we’re far better off depending on ourselves for markets to advance as opposed to depending on the ECB.

Instead of being the unlikely beneficiaries of ECB injection of liquidity into their bond markets, which could scarcely drive their interest rates any lower, we are likely to begin seeing some tangible benefit of lower energy costs sooner or later and hopefully those will serve as the driver of higher stock prices to come.

Up until the final hour it looked as if all three new positions for the week would get assigned, but the interest rate sensitive MetLife succumbed to the large drop in interest rates later in the session.

While I was happy you see 2 positions get assigned, I would have been happier for all three, but would have welcomed back the chance to repurchase MetLife, and maybe even Intel or Best Buy, if they open the following week lower.

This was actually a very interesting week as the first 3 days of trading saw significant turnarounds from the pre-opening futures trading within about 30 to 60 minutes of trading and then turnarounds from the turnarounds.

As with most weeks I’m always disappointed by the number of new STO trades that are made on existing uncovered positions. While I would love to do more DOH trades, despite the greater attention they need in order to avoid assignment, the volatility, despite some transient increases, has still been too low to offer a risk – reward proposition that’s worth taking looking at.

As it is, I’m happy that there were some opportunities to rollover some positions and make some of those new call sales, but just like this week, next week doesn’t have very many positions set to expire on Friday.

That means that I’ll likely be looking for new positions next week with weekly option expirations, as it will be another week that I wouldn’t mind adding some new positions, even though I’d like to see cash reserves beefed up a bit more.

Next week will be the busiest week for S&P 500 company earnings and despite the fairly weak earnings so far, I think there may be some hints of good news to come as we start hearing from more consumer names and more from companies that stand to benefit from lower energy costs.

That includes some large oil companies that also begin reporting next week. If they’re able to deliver some news, as did Schlumberger and Halliburton, that wasn’t as bad as expected, that could help create some confidence going forward.

Hopefully that will be the case and I would certainly like to see another week like this one, even if it may end on a sour note.

In addition to earnings next week, while the overall week is a quiet one for economic news, it will feature both an FOMC Statement release and GDP statistics two days later.

With interest rates having been so volatile the past two weeks, both of those events net week could add to that volatility and make the week more interesting.

Not that I really yearn for things to be more interesting. Lately they’ve been interesting enough.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BBY, INTC, MET

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  GPS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  EMC (2/6), MET (2/6)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  AZN (2/20), SBGI (3/20)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls AssignedBBY, INTC

Calls Expired:  BAC

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: FAST (1/28 $0.28)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, BAC, BP, CHK, CLF, COH, DOW, FCX, HAL, HFC, .JCP, JOY, LVS, MAT, MCP, MOS,  NEM, RIG, SBGI, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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