Give up your Dreams, Now


DreamingOne of the problems with getting older is that you don’t dream quite as frequently , vividly or with as much imagination.

Maybe you just don’t have the same ability to recall, but something is different. There’s a strong correlation between erosion of dreams and ear hair.

I happen to have been trained and educated as a Pediatric Dentist, but I rarely think about teeth during the course of the day. I certainly don’t dream about teeth or even hygienists, who were often the punchline of a Woody Allen joke.

I’m certain that some people may have dreams, more appropriately, nightmares about me or my ilk. Maybe even about Woody Allen.

There’s no accounting for the excess baggage that some people carry with themselves throughout life.

In what I can only describe as a nightmare, I awoke a bit earlier this morning than usual with a dream freshly painted in my mind.

For some reason, I was actually a Dentist in the dream. I even was wearing one of those short white coats that I never wore in real life. But there I was, left with the responsibility of explaining to someone why they had cavities, but I wasn’t allowed to draw any cause and effect between their horrid diet or lack of anything resembling hygiene and their acquisition of cavities.

I think it was for reasons of national security and the information was on a “need to know basis” only.

Hard as I tried to rationalize a need to disclose the true cause and effect for the odontogenic malady, I just couldn’t connect the dots.

I like cause and effect.

It explains a lot.

Yesterday, I proudly laid out for Sugar Momma my theory on why dogs, our dachshund Laszlo, specifically, bark at joggers, cars and delivery guys.

Getting into a dog’s mind, it occured to me that being somewhat protective of his terrritory, Laszlo’s second instinct is to bark. But that instinct gets repeatedly reinforced as the jogger always keeps on running and the delivery guys never stop and stay for a spot of tea.

In Lazlo’s mind, those intruders weren’t going about their usual activity, they were chased away by his barking.

So, I don’t even like suspending basic laws of cause and effect for my own dreams.

Cause and effect was probably a good way to describe my waking nightmares through Tuesday’s trading and the afterhours.

No doubt, the cause of Netflix’s 35% trading fall was due to the poorly conceived strategy to send DVD renters off into the sunset. Although that strategy makes more sense, than say, The Gap splitting itself into a streaming jeans business and a mail order jeans business, the market didn’t like the fact that the normal attrition of subscribers wasn’t replaced by new subscribers.

The fact that there’s no really good alternative to Netflix for those that chose to leave really points at the serious nature of their corporate miscalculation.

Did I mention that my Doppleganger bought Netflix shares yesterday? I’m not certain which of us bought more shares today, but depending on the outcome of those shares, I still reserve the right to blame “evil me.” The fact that Whitney Tilson, who has been bearish on Netflix since the days of SONY Beta-Max, has now indicated that he is now buying shares can only mean one thing.

Just as everything can only mean one thing. It remains to be seen what that one thing will turn out to be.

The same evil me bought Amazon and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters yesterday, as well.

In what can only be described as a bad case of “deja vous,” Amazon released earnings that exceeded expectations.

Normally that’s a good thing, unless it’s in the wrong direction.

Can you guess the direction?

Green Mountain is on deck for tomorrow and there’s no shortage of reasons to expect disappointing results, so I’m expecting a climb upward.

In yesterday’s blog, I pointed my finger and placed all blame for making these very uncharacteristic trades on some evil Doppleganger.

But in reality, let’s face. I may be in denial and not really want to take the responsibility for breaking some of my own fundamental rules, but the trades were based on something.

No doubt they were based on some sort of dream.

Not the kind that necessarily required deep slumber, but more the kind borne out of wishful thinking. The dream that you would catch an earning’s report just in the right direction and make a quick hit.

My dreams used to be about hitting home runs, now they’re not.

Obviously, neither of those dreams are likely to happen.

But the actions that I took just made certain that today turned out to be another dream turned into a nightmare.

But Netflix, as culturally key as it is, just isn’t enough to move the markets.

Texas Instruments, which also reported disappointing numbers on Monday used to be able to move markets. But no more.

So I can’t really blame the Doppleganger and I can’t blame Reed Hastings or Jeff Bezos for the rest of today’s nightmares.

Silver and Sallie Mae both did their best Freddy Krueggers and I can’t begin to see their association with streaming or peddling online.

Silver skyrocketted, so my ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF’s did the opposite, although I was lucky to sell some calls near today’s high.

But then there’s the Sallie Mae debacle. There’s some rumor about a consolidation of college lenders out there. That was the same rumor that circulated about 3 years ago, as being on the Obama Administration hit list.

In those 3 years, I’ve done reallly well with Sallie Mae and selling its calls. Those days may be coming to an end, but even that has a sense of “deja vous” about it.

If Sallie Mae stays in the $12 range I may join some of the Occupy Wall Street protestors to complain about how worthless all of the education I have is, in the face of my relatively high cost basis on shares of the stock that many borrowers love to hate.

Today’s market as a whole seemed to be surprised that the rumor of a meeting between EU Finance Ministers to talk about a plan, wasn’t going to happen on Wednesday.

That’s what its all come down to.

Rumors are a little like dreams. They don’t necessarily have a basis in reality, but they can become their own reality, shaping our actions and creating expanded borders for our fears.

At some point, it might be nice if the rumors would become as rare as the dreams.

I’m perfectly willing to give up dreams of teeth, hygienists and even cotton candy unicorns if it meant that I wouldn’t succumb to the unrealistic dreams of waking life and the man made dreams fired by rumors.

To the Doppleganger out there that has made the past two days somewhat hellish, I have the inner strength to admit that you don’t exist.

I alone am responsible for falling prey to my unrealistic dreams, but I dream of the day that will no longer happen.