Category: Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

September 28 – October 2, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2   /   2	2	1	3   /   0	0  /  0	0	3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

September 28 – October 2, 2015

This was yet another week of real indecision with lots of daily and intra-day ups and downs.

So what else is new?

There were 2 new positions opened for the week and they out-performed the unadjusted and adjusted S&P 500 by  0.2%.

Those positions were 1.2% higher for the week while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 finished 1.0% higher after lots of swings back and forth.

Thanks to some late week strength in energy and materials, existing positions were also able to bounce back from the deficit created earlier in the week.

For the year the 55 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.9% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.0% higher. That difference represents a 400.5% performance differential. 

If you were looking for a theme this week, I’m not certain that you could easily find one, other
than that the market is continuing to find a home at right around that 10% correction level and it bounces around in great indecision right at that line.

While this was a week that spent most of its time confusing anyone that bothered to pay attention, it again felt like another good time to add some new positions as the market was still bouncing back and forth, but was staying relatively close to the line distinguishing between a market in correction and one that isn’t.

I really like those kind of markets and I never get bored by buying the same stock over and over as it or they may also bounce around a single point and somehow finding a way to return home.

Those large bounces back and forth are still helping to drive up volatility and the volatility rise is making premiums more attractive. One day the volatility falls in a big way and the next day it rises, along with the market. Volatility has also been settling into a comfortable range, but all it would take to shift that range would be a few consecutive days of large moves in the market either direction.

The market got off to a bad start on Monday and that worked out to be a good say to consider spending some money. Fortunately, the bounces later in the week offered some chances to sell calls, get rollovers done and see positions assigned.

Add to it a number of ex-dividend positions and it was another good week, but those still have been too far and few in-between.

With a little bit more cash to start next week a small number of positions set to expire next week and some more ex-dividend positions, there is again some more chance to create additional income next week.

As with the previous week, with the manner in which the market closed the week I’m not entirely certain what path looks predominant as the coming week gets ready to open. At the moment, I’d like to see another wave of weakness to open the coming week as I would like some opportunity to consider buying back what was assigned this week, although there are any number of appealing prospects to think about.

At the very least the market’s really strong comeback on Friday afternoon was just so perfectly timed, but it would be criminal to try and take credit for it.

Sometimes, it really helps to have good luck on your side and not just bad luck.

Earnings start next week, as well and so we may get a chance to think about fundamentals and hopefully see some reason to believe that Friday’s Employment Situation report was an aberration and that the economy is still heading toward a better and better place.

I’m willing to take that bet.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BAC, GE

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: BAC

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cyc
le
: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  HPQ (12/18), KO (12/18)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: DOW, GE ($24.50), GE ($25)

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: DOW (9/28 $0.42), EMC (9/29 $0.12), CSCO (10/1 $0.21)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   GPS (10/5 $0.23)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

September 21 – 25, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
4   /   4	0	2	2   /   0	0  /  0	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

September 21 – 25, 2015

This was a week of real indecision.

Following last week’s bad reaction to news of no interest rate increase, the best we could do this week was a small bounce back on Monday.

As we flirted in and out of correction I bought more new positions in a single week than for quite some time.

The 4 new positions out-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by  2.0% and also out-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.0%.

Those positions were 0.6% higher for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 finished 1.4% lower and the unadjusted S&P 500 was 1.4% lower.

Existing positions trailed the S&P 500 by 0.9% for the week. Their relative performance was again dragged down my energy and materials.

For the year the 52 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.8% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.1 % higher. That difference represents a 357.4% performance differential. 

While this was a week that spent most of its time exhibiting weakness, it did feel like a good time to add some new positions as the market was still bouncing back and forth, but was staying relatively close to the line distinguishing between a market in correction and one that isn’t.

Those large bounces back and forth are helping to drive up volatility and the volatility rise is making premiums more attractive.

Combined with prices on stocks that may already be in their own personal bear correction, that becomes more and more attractive, especially when there’s also a dividend involved.

The various strategies that can be used definitely increase as the volatility does, as well, as there is more premium built into in the money options and greater advantage to the Double DIp Dividend trades, even if the dividend ends up not being captured.

The market got off to a good start on Monday and for most of the day looked as if it was going to end the week even better than how it had started, as Janet Yellen may have removed some uncertainty late Thursday, after 3 really weak days.

Those days were nothing more than the market being confused and disappointed.

That’s a bad combination.

Fortunately, despite the weakness seen in the overall market, it wasn’t too bad of a week, with opportunity to create some income from the new positions that were opened, as well as the rollover trades that were able to be completed and a single ex-dividend position.

This was a good week to see a number of past ex-dividend positions suddenly show up as cash in the account and that’s always appreciated, although this week did have a decent number of active trades generating income. The dividends are more appreciated in those weeks where there isn’t very much trading to be done.

After having dug deeply to open those new positions this week I was especially happy to see the 2 assignments get made, but would have been happier if there were some more, but I won’t be complaining, given how the week was looking as it was getting ready to end the week.

With a little bit of cash and a small number of positions set to expire next week, including some positions going ex-dividend, there is some more chance to create some additional income next week.

With the manner in which the market closed the week I’m not entirely certain what path looks predominant as the coming week gets ready to open. At the moment, I’m not as positive about its direction as I was early this week. I was definitely willing to spend cash this week, but am not certain I’ll feel the same way when Monday gets here.

With next week ending with an Employment Situation Report and lots of key Federal Reserve people giving speeches, including Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer, there’s good reason to believe that they’ll be re-inforcing the message that the interest rate hike is coming in 2015.

Janet Yellen did that yesterday and the market seemed to like that relative certainty, so next week there could be more of the same and a strong Employment Situation Report could really drive home the confidence that the market is developing that it can still thrive as interest rates begin a slow climb higher.

Here’s to good news, but I wouldn’t mind staying at these levels for a while and keeping volatility at these higher levels, as well.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   CY, BAC, DOW, GE

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  GE (10/9), HFC (10/23)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: ANF, BAC

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  CY (9/22 $0.11)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   DOW (9/28 $0.42), EMC (9/29 $0.12), CSCO (10/1 $0.21)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

September 14 – 18, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1	0	0	2  /  0	8  /  0	0	2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

September 14 – 18, 2015

This was a really terrible week, but for the right reasons.

More on that later.

There was only one new position opened this week and thanks to the late week sell-off, it was able to out-perform the market.

That single position was assigned after 3 days of holding and exceeded the performance of the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.2%, but trailed the adjusted S&P 500 by 0.7%, reflecting the sharp decline following that assignment after Wednesday’s close.

The position was 1.1% higher, while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 0.1% lower and the unadjusted S&P 500 ended the week 1.8% higher.

Existing positions beat the S&P 500 by 0.2% for the week and were actually 0.1% higher for the week.

Beating is good, higher is better, but the differential wasn’t much to write home about.

For the year the 49 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.8% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.1% higher. That difference represents a 357.4% performance differential. The differential is so big as to be meaningless.

What were the right reasons that made this week’s terrible market not so hard to accept?

It was the first time seeing the market come to an understanding that an increase in the interest rates wasn’t really a bad thing, especially at this early stage of a cycle. That helps to explain market strength earlier in the week, even as overseas markets in Asia continued to be very weak.

It was also the first time that the market was in a position to react to news of no such interest rate increase through a new and more mature lens.

And they didn’t like not getting the rate increase, because they finally came to understand that it’s a growing economy that warrants such an increase and the market is all about growth.

Last week I wrote: “It seems that the market is finally at peace with the probability that a rate increase is getting very near at hand.”

This week definitely showed that to be the case and the good news is that we may finally be back to a stage where it’s the fundamentals that count.

As far as fundamentals go, for my perspective personal fundamentals were awful this week.

With only a single new position opened and no rollovers and no new call positions sold, there wasn’t much in the way of income generation. Although there were a couple of ex-dividend positions, that’s really not enough for an entire week.

The real disappointment, though, was seeing the large losses coming in the days before the end of a monthly cycle’s expiration, as was the case this week.

That ends up adding far too many positions into the “uncovered” category.

Still, as bad as this week was, I’m left more optimistic than I have been for quite a while.

That optimism comes from the belief that investors are going to focus more and more on fundamentals and we’re going to move away from thinking that a handout from the Federal Reserve in the form of zero interest rates is the only thing to keep us afloat.

With the possibility that we are also beginning to distance ourselves from what is going on in China and possibly Japan, as well, that could be really good news.

With earnings set to begin once again in about 3 weeks, we may see an entirely new kind of market persona, which is much more like the market of the past.

If that can be coupled with some increased volatility, maybe settling into the 27 – 32 range, that could be a really nice place to create some additional income, even if the market is getting ready to take a rest for a while and create a new foundation for another leg higher.

If so, that would finally also open the door for more “DOH” trades and generation of some additional premium income for those that may be nimble enough to take counter measures on short notice in the event of a sudden move higher that would see shares otherwise assigned well below cost.

Still, while the S&P 500 is again moving into correction territory and those support levels are again being tested, it would be refreshing to have an environment where fundamentals rule the day.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   GE

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: CVC, GE

Calls Expired:  CY, GDX, GPS, HPQ, KO, KSS, MOS, NEM

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  GE (9/17 $0.23), LVS (9/18 $0.65)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   CY (9/22 $0.11)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

September 7 – 11, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0	3	3	1  /  0	0  /  0	0	5

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

September 7 – 11, 2015

This week ended up with no news at all, only a surprise that China didn’t gap lower after having taken a few additional days off.

In what can only be described as a major relief, even as China did head lower to begin the week and even as we were closed in celebration of Labor Day, our markets did not fall behind the curve and instead disassociated from the influence of the overnight Chinese trading.

In return, we actually had a stealth rally and may finally get some closure in the coming week as the FOMC may be poised to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

There were no new positions opened again this week. In the meantime the S&P 500 gained 2.0%

After a number of weeks of out-performing the S&P 500, his week existing positions trailed, due to the weakness seen in energy and materials. They were still higher, but by only 0.5% on the week, reflecting a portfolio over-invested in energy and materials. The past few weeks demonstrate the adage “you live by the sword, you die by the sword.”

For the year the 47 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.8% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.2% higher. That difference represents a 288.6% performance differential.

It seems that the market is finally at peace with the probability that a rate increase is getting very near at hand.

Even if the data may not seem to be in support of a move right now, considering how slowly economies translate reality into data, a move coming right now may be anticipatory and small enough not to do any harm if it ends up being premature.

People may be finally getting the notion that a rate increase is only going to be a reflection of an improving economy.

That, together with the realization that ours may be the best economy on the block may be giving nervous traders some confidence, especially as record high prices are no longer around to give people a reason to second guess themselves.

Let’s face it. Where else is the world’s money going to go at a time like this?

With this stealth rally, I couldn’t find any real reason to be buying. Part of that is that I really didn’t want to dig deeper into my own pockets to fund those purchases, as while cash has been far too low for my liking, it also hasn’t helped not having had any assignments for a while.

That finally changed this week with but a single assignment, although I was surprised that some $33.50 Best Buy calls weren’t exercised early to capture its dividend. I was actually hoping for that assignment and thought that I was pretty smart having rolled those contracts over twice in a couple of weeks in an effort to get even more than the equivalent of the dividend and still get my cash investment back.

But that’s not the way it worked out.

Still, it was another good week for income development thanks to the hesitant move ahead for the week.

That afforded opportunities to rollover positions as well as to sell calls on existing, but uncovered positions. Add to that another slew of ex-dividend positions and it turned out to be a second successive good week for income production.

Next week is the FOMC meeting and it is also the final week of the September 2015 cycle.

I’m always leery of when those coincide, especially if there’s also a Chairman’s press conference.

I’m not really expecting a sell-off from whatever decision the FOMC makes, but when you have a fair number of expiring positions on the line you are a little more concerned about their fates than you might normally be.

Hopefully we will continue on a path that doesn’t care too much about what will be unfolding in China and instead focus on the good news that promises to become even better news at home.

I don’t expect to be busy with new purchases next week, after a week of not having made any. I would love to see another week offering a chance to create some additional income from what already exists, although next week has only a single ex-dividend position to add to the collection plate.

With the FOMC Statement release coming on Thursday this time around there may be reason to consider pre-emptive moves in advance of that for any positions expiring next week, as two days is little enough time to recover from a bad reaction, but one day is even worse.

But that’s next week. In the meantime we have a few days to see whether China does anything over the weekend to get us thinking differently here on Monday morning.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BBY ($33.50 10/23), BBY ($37 10/23)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  HFC (10/16)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  BAC (10/2), DOW (12/18), IP (10/23),

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: GE

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  NEM (98 $0.025), GM (9/10 $0.36), KO (9/11 $0.33), BBY (9/11 $0.23)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   LVS (9/18 $0.65)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BAC, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 31 – September 4, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
3  /  3	0	5	0  /  0	3  /  0	0	8

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 31 – September 4, 2015

Another miserable week for the overall market and another miserable Friday to end the week.

Coming just 2 weeks after the worst week in 4 years, you have to wonder why we bothered with the week in-between. That week brought us out of officil correction territory, while this week brought us right back.

There were 3 new positions opened again this week, digging further into personal funds, effectively functioning as margin. Those new positions out-performed the adjusted S&P 500 by 4.2% and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 4.5%. While the past few week’s new and existing positions have been out-performing, the difference was that last week the out-performance was more than simply in relative terms, as positions gained for the week. This week, however, we were back to out-performing in relative terms, but losing net ground, nonetheless.

New positions were 1.1% higher, while the adjusted S&P 500  lost 3.1% and the unadjusted S&P 500 lost 3.4% during the week that some misery compounded, despite an attempt to bounce back during the mid-week. 

Existing positions finished the week an unusually large 2.5% higher than the S&P 500, but that didn’t really make up for their overall 1.3% loss for the week.

With no assignments once again,  the 46 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 5.0% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.3% higher. That difference represents a 283.3% performance differential.

This week was another one that was simple to describe. As has been the case all too frequently lately, it was a terrible week.

Last week was easy to describe, as it was simply terrible.

The attempt to bounce back from early week losses was far too little and without backbone.

More and more it looks as if those nice moves higher are what they have historically been. Nothing more than something to suck you in as a bear market is developing. Whether there is another 9% or more to the downside, I don’t know, but I don’t think that will be the case.

While there hasn’t been the typical “buying on the dip” with the declines seen over the past month, I’ve started adding positions.

While I feel good about those new positions, especially if they’re coupled with dividends and better than the kind of premiums that have become the “new norm,” it is telling just how quickly their impending assignments just evaporate into thin air.

With just one day left to the week I thought that there was a very good chance of at least getting 2 a
ssignments. Instead, there were none. Luckily, all 3 positions opened this week could be rolled over fairly easily and with a little bit of expiration date staggering, as well.

While the market hasn’t been very investor friendly lately, where there do appear to be opportunities the returns can be better than in a market that moves higher. The premiums and dividends can be very nice, especially if there’s also some capital gains on the shares as part of the equation.

Fortunately, this week was a good one as far as income generation goes. With 8 ex-dividend positions, 3 new positions opened and then 5 rollovers, it almost felt like old times again.

I felt the same way last week, but that is frequently how it feels when the volatility decides to play along. It does tend to be much more fun, even if the overall market is going lower. The ability to out-perform in a down market is something that most agree is a critical component of long term investing health.

That old saying about the market being able to stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent is less likely to be true when you can cushion the paper losses with income of any sort. The past month or so has really reflected what additional income streams can do during a period of market weakness.

For the coming week I’m still willing to dip into my additional funds and do what Donald Trump does, by giving myself a loan to make more stock purchases. I’d rather do that than risk a margin call. At least I have my better interests at heart. I’m not certain that I could say the same about my or anyone’s brokerage.

However, while willing and while there are a number of good ex-dividend positions next week, I still would rather see some opportunity to rollover existing positions, especially those expiring in 2 weeks when the September 2015 cycle comes to its end.

With only one position set to expire next week, there isn’t too much additional income that could accrue from that position, but at least there are a number of ex-dividend positions, as well.

The big question will be what will China’s markets do after taking a few days off and what will ours do, perhaps in response after we’ve had the additional holiday day to fall behind the curve, if China goes off the road.

For now, I won’t think about any of that and instead look forward to a nice, quiet week and a happy and safe Labor Day to everyone.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   GE, MOS, HPQ

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: GE

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BBY (10/9)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: HPQ, MOS

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  UAL (12/18)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  BAC, CSCO, IP

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  HAL (8/31 $0.18), HFC (8/31 $0.33), COH (9/3 $0.34), BAC (9/2 $0.05), MOS (9/1 $0.28), JOY (9/2 $0.20), HPQ (9/4 $0.18), KSS (9/4 $0.45)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   NEM (98 $0.025), GM (9/10 $0.36), KO (9/11 $0.33), BBY (9/11 $0.23)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BAC, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 24 – 28, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2  /  2	1	2	0  /  0	0  /  0	0	3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 24 – 28, 2015

Well, that was some week and it came to a fairly sedate end, despite being anything but sedate, in-between.

Coming just a week after the worst week in 4 years, it was well welcome.

There were 2 new positions opened again this week, digging further into personal funds, effectively functioning as margin. Those new positions out-performed both the adjusted and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 5.2%. While the past few weeks new and existing positions have been out-performing, the difference is that this week the out-performance was more than simply ion relative terms, as positions gained for the week.

New positions were 6.1% higher, while the S&P 500 was able to gain 0.9% during that time period after turning things around very decisively Wednesday and Thursday. The unusually high performance was in part helped by using longer term options and by some premium enhancements due to increased volatility.

Just as some previous weeks were marked by weak performances in energy and materials, this week those sectors helped to not only out-perform, but to increase portfolio value for a change.

With no assignments once again,  the 46 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 5.0% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.3% higher. That difference represents a 283.3% performance differential.

Last week was easy to describe, as it was simply terrible.

This week began looking as if would be a repeat of that, but only worse, as an attempt to rally from the 600 point loss fizzled out.

Despite looking like a similar rally would do the same death dive the next day, something was able to inject some real confidence and strong buying, across all sectors, but especially in energy.

So this week was not so easy to describe, but it turned out to be a very good one from a number of perspectives.

It always helps to focus first on the bottom line and existing positions out-performed the broad market by an unusually large 0.8%, having advanced by 1.7% for the week. That was predominantly due to a late in the week spike in energy and materials, but that advantage over the broad market existed throughout the entire week.

It was also helped out by 2 rollovers, a new option sale on an uncovered position and 3 ex-dividend positions.

While I don’t know what next week’s activity may look like, there are already a number of positions set to expire, as opposed to this week that I elected to bypass with expiring positions.

Additionally next week has an unusually large number of ex-dividend positions to serve as income streams in the event that there are no new purchases and no rollovers.

Obviously, I’d like to be able to generate additional income from whatever is already on the books.

For those that watch volatility, you’ll notice that the past 2 days looked as if they broke the general trend of volatility only going higher when markets decline. In reality, however, that well over-simplified. Volatility, although it’s often said reflects uncertainty or the “fear factor,” is really nothing more than a statistical measure of change. So you can have volatility increases even if markets go higher, so long as that path higher is very jagged.

And it has definitely been that.

The good news is that the jagged path also leads to higher premiums and in the best of all worlds the net movement in the stock market is either flat or higher.

That hasn’t been the case since the latter half of 2011, but is now looking like that, if it can last.

I for one, really hope that it lasts.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   GE, SBGI

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  ANF (9/25)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  BBY (10/16)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  INTC

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  COH, FAST, INTC, LVS

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  MAT (8/24 $0.38), ANF (8/28 $0.20), SBGI (8/28$0.16)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   HAL (8/31 $0.18), HFC (8/31 $0.33), COH (9/3 $0.34), BAC (9/2 $0.05), MOS (9/1 $0.28), JOY (9/2 $0.20), KSS (9/4 $0.45)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 17 – 21, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2  /  2	0	6	0  /  0	4  /  0	0	3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 17 – 21, 2015

We’ve recently had a series of weeks that have been really hard to classify.

That’s not the case with this week as there aren’t too many ways to sugarcoat the events for the week.

It was still a week, though, that we could point our fingers toward China, but we also did nothing to help ourselves as earnings couldn’t offset the plunges on the other side of the world, especially when the earnings weren’t very good.

As opposed to last week in which there was a relative oddity of not ending the week on a sour note, today’s close more than made up for the lack of a bad f
inish to last week as this was the single worst performing week in 4 years.

There were 2 new positions opened this week. They out-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 4.0% and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 4.0%. However, those new positions still lost 1.8% for the week.

In comparison, both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 measures were 5.8% lower for the week, marking the worst week in 4 years.

Despite a very poor weak for the energy sector and materials, existng positions out-performed the broad market by 3.0%, but they were 2.8% lower on the week.

With no assignments once again,  the 46 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 5.0% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.3% higher. That difference represents a 283.3% performance differential.

This week was an easy one to describe.

It was terrible.

It started as a week of reversals. Some of those early reversals in the week could have given some reason to be optimistic until along came an intraday reversal to a reversal.

The rest of the week really fell apart once the market’s valiant attempt to climb back from a 200 point loss was rebuffed and sent us right back toward the lows of the day.

The cumulative loss on the DJIA the following 2 days was about 900 points. That’s more reminiscent of 2008 and 2009 than anything in recent memory.

It’s weeks like this though that you depend on your hedges to limit those losses and somehow there was reasonably good opportunity to execute a number of rollovers. Those rollovers helped to beat the market for the week, but again, it’s all relative. The week was still a net loser.

As it was, in relative terms it was a better week than for the next guy due to those hedges and the ability to get a decent number of rollovers done. It was also good to have some of the ex-dividend positions, but this week nothing was immune from the down draft that blew in from China.

Although the week started with the equally reasonable chance of seeing a number of positions get assigned, it feels lucky to be able to have gotten whatever rollovers could be executed.

While there were a number of expiring positions, with the exception of Intel, those all represented call sales made on positions that were well out of the money and just done in order to generate a little bit of additional revenue while praying for the unlikely to happen.

I think I would take that chance again if the opportunities rolled around next week, although the time frame on those options is going to be increased.

What will be interesting to see is just how those premiums will be enhanced by the very sudden and dramatic increase in volatility this week. That may make it more inviting to make some “DOH” trades, as the reward may finally start to be getting more in line with the risk of assignment at strike prices that are way too low for comfort.

Following a quick scan of premiums for the next week and beyond, there is already very tangible evidence of those premiums moving higher.

With no assignments this week and using only cash that is the equivalent of trading on margin, I’m very unlikely to want to add new positions next week, but some of these prices are just so appealing right now, especially in the finance sector.

The greatest likelihood is that if adding new positions or if being able to sell calls on existing psotions, I’m going to think more about selling into an extended weekly time frame, rather than a weekly contract.

That leaves the possibility of having absolutely no positions expiring next Friday, but using the extended weekly options may be able to lock into some better premiums and could also give some more time for the market or individual stocks to see a rebound following this week.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BAC, CVC

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  ANF (9/4), CSCO (9/4), HFC (10/2), IP (9/4)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  BBY, CVC

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  COH, FAST, INTC, LVS

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  MRO (8/17 $0.21), CVC (8/19 $0.15), RIG (8/21 $0.15)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   MAT (8/24 $0.38)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 10 – 14, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1	1	4	0  /  0	1  /  0	1	2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 10 – 14, 2015

It was another strange weak that seemed to be dependent on what China was thinking, but at least this one didn’t end with another horrific Friday.

The market was still simply a continuation of that weekly back and forth pattern that has been the rule for the summer. This week, though it was that way intra-week, as well.

We saw big swings from day to day, as well as from morning to afternoon.

The week ended up not doing much on a net basis, but at least there was some opportunity to get some trading done.

There was only one new position opened this week, but that has become more the norm than the exception.

That position out-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% and unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.7%.

That new position was 2.0% higher for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 0.7% higher for the week and the adjusted S&P 500 was 0.6% lower.

Energy and materials moderated a little this week, but retail sales are looking fairly weak, as those earnings started getting reported over the past ew days and will continue next week.

 With no assignments once again,  the 46 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 5.0% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.3% higher. That difference represents a 283.3% performance differential.

This was another week that was very hard to characterize..

It wasn’t as bad as last week when we saw earnings devastate some invincible seeming stocks, but it was a week that showed just how much we are tied to unpredictable events in China.

What is a little concerning is that whenever an economy is in need of central bank intervention, it’s always a little bit of a crap shoot. You never really know whether the economy is going to respond in a text book sort of way. But it does help to have had an institutional history with taking bold steps.

In the case of China, they’re pretty new at this capitalism game and they don’t necessarily have the same depth of experience in managing events.

The manner in which they devalued their currency on three occasions this week, with rushing in to support it sandwiched in between, may indicate a decision process that isn’t necessarily based on anything but a seat by the pants approach.

That may have also been the case a few weeks ago when it took some steps to bring their plummeting stock markets under control, as well.

What you can really understand is why Jack Ma, the founder of Ali Baba was more than happy to have his company listed on the NYSE, rather than back home and why he is very much in a diversifying of assets mode, especially looking for assets outside of China.

From a positive perspective the market once again respected its sup[port levels and it seems that what we had gotten used to as the new age kind of correction at levels 5% below the highs is now becoming something more like 3.5%.

We haven’t been able to get a 5% mini-correction now for a few months, but we have had a number of those even smaller 3.5% corrections.

With Friday’s close higher the S&P 500 is now just 2% below its all time highs as it made a sudden turnaround at about noon on Wednesday, when it looked as if the 5% level might finally be reached.

This past week was another with no assignments and no opportunity to replenish cash. As I discussed last week I was willing to dip into a personal form of margin by investing funds that I typically keep separate from that followed in the OTP portfolio. However, closing out the Texas Instruments position made that unnecessary this week.

It may, however, be necessary this coming week.

Otherwise, it was a reasonably good week, with one uncovered position getting a new call written, four rollovers and 2 ex-dividend positions.

Next week brings the end of the August 2015 monthly cycle. While I have a number of positions set to expire next week, a few of them are not likely to get rolled over, much less assigned. There is, though, some decent chance for some others to be assigned, so I’m hopeful that the upbeat market of the latter half of this week persists into the next week.

Of course that would require continuing to close the day with gains and it has been difficult stringing those kind of days together lately.

While there’s not too much economic news scheduled for next week, there will still be retail earnings and whatever surprises China may still have for us.

I can’t wait.

And by that I mean I can wait and would like to see a nice non-eventful week and one with few, if any, surprises

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   IP

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: ANF, INTC, IP

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  BBY (8/21), EMC (10/16)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: TWTR (1/15/16)

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  WY

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  TXN

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: AZN (8/12 $0.45), IP (8/12 $0.40)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: MRO (8/17 $0.21)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

Aujust 3 – 7, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2  /  2	2	2	0  /  0	0  /  0	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 3 – 7, 2015

It was another weak Friday and now that seems to be the new normal.

< strong>What wasn’t normal was that the market was down for the seventh consecutive day to end the week.

This week was simply a continuation of that weekly back and forth pattern that has been the rule for the summer. Nothing of importance really happened this week, but that didn’t stop the market from finding an excuse to add to the gestalt. That gestalt is one of great negativity, even as the market is just 3% away from its highs.

There was a little more trading activity this week, however.

The 2 new positions out-performed both out-performed both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.9%.

Those positions were 1.6% higher for the week while both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were down by 1.3%.

Despite continuing weakness in energy and commodities existing positions matched the performance of the broader market. That’s not much, but it’s something.

 With no assignments once again,  the 46 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 5.0% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.3% higher. That difference represents a 283.3% performance differential.

Good luck trying to find a way to characterize this week or at least to try and explain what was going on.

It was a week that saw invincible stocks like Disney and Apple head into correction territory, joining so many others in the DJIA.

It still seems so incongruous that so many of those companies could be floundering, yet the indices don’t really reflect that to be the case.

For those who only follow the index levels on the nightly news, they may be in for a big surprise when they open up their monthly statements.

For the first time in a while, however, I could see some silver lining to the week. That’s not the way I typically look at things as I tend to focus on the weakest link of the week. Fortunately, I didn’t do the same with my kids or the people that used to work for me. That would have been pretty unbearable for them.

The weak link this week was that there were no assignments and I am essentially at a zero cash level.

I say “essentially” because I segregate my premium income and funds used for non-OTP trades from OTP spreadsheets, in order to keep numbers “clean” so that comparisons can be more accurately made.

What that means is that if I want to execute any new trades next week I will have to dip into those funds, creating a negative cash balance reflected in the OTP spreadsheets. That would be the equivalent of using margin. However, I’m not recommending that anyone use margin or add funds to their accounts. If anything, I would be seeking to raise cash levels. That’s why the weak link for the week was not seeing enough strength on Friday to see either Abercrombie and Fitch and Intel get assigned. Both were in range on Thursday to become a source for next week’s cash needs.

Otherwise, despite a really bad market environment, with most all metrics being dour, it was a reasonably satisfying week.

Although the new positions weren’t assigned, they were at least rolled over and there was the opportunity to sell some calls on two previously uncovered positions.

That’s something, just not enough.

Next week is another where it is really anyone’s guess. The economic news of late isn’t doing anything to inspire confidence and next week has very little other than the Retail Sales report.

That and the beginning of the stream of retailers who have yet to report their earnings.

I won’t hold my breath, but sooner or later someone has to be getting the money from whatever is being saved on gas prices. My guess is that when it happens it will be Wal-Mart before it will be Nordstroms, for what that’s worth. The problem is that kind of logic would have been wrong for all of 2015, while the logic itself would have been sound all through that same time period.

So next week,  with a handful of positions having their contracts due to expire, I would be more than happy to see my trading confined to just rolling those expiring positions ove
r and would be even happier with an assignment here and there.

Given the back and forth of the market these past weeks, maybe we’re in store for one of those weeks that will take us forward. If that’s going to be the case, the timing would be very nice, but I hope that it could extend into the following week, as well, since that has an equal number of positions set to expire.

Hopefully, the next week will be one where some of those “buy on the dip” people come back into the light and practice their magic while exhibiting their bravery. They’ve been pretty reluctant of late and it’s been rare to see consecutive days with nicely higher moves. But after 7 straight sessions with the DJIA lower, even a single day higher would be a nice change of pace.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   ANF, INTC

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: ANF, INTC

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  BBY (8/21), EMC (10/16)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: INTC (8/5 $0.24)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: AZN (8/12 $0.45)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.