Category: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update –  December 27, 2016 (9:00 AM)

The final week of 2016.

For lots of reasons, I can’t wait, but will still be sad to see it go.

It will also be a pretty quiet week on the planned news front, at least as far as economic reports go and earnings are done, at least for another few weeks.

That leaves us with a market where traders may be rolling the dice.

Will there be strategic tax loss selling? Will there be opportunity to take advantage of expected light volume?

Will anything unexpected happen anywhere just from an errant Tweet or fake news story?

Amazing that those latter two are even a thing.

So, regardless of what this week’s trades may or may not bring, it was by far my least busy trading year since I’ve started doing what I’m about to give up doing.

It’s also the slowest trading year since I started trading, with temerity, on my own.

I hope that changes next year, although I hope that the end result and the bottom line continue along the same path.

With still way too much in commodities, I think that 2017 will be another good year, regardless of what happens with the overall market.

I plan on trying to leverage those long dormant positions with every possible opportunity in 2017 and trading more and more, even if not opening as many new positions.

I also plan to going longer term, as I’m getting a little older and not as keen about keeping an eye on news and events day in and day out.

Although I never get bored, all of the above is subject to change if the slightest bit of boredom creeps in.

I do know what I like, but I’m not certain of how I might respond to boredom, so it may be best to be prepared to go back to what I know I like.

This week, I have cash.

I do like that.

I also have some inclination to spend cash.

I like that, too.

I have some ex-dividend positions.

Like.

And a couple of expiring positions.

Like that, too.

So, even as not expecting much on the week, I;m approaching it with a smile and am ready to go, even of only for 4 days.

Hopefully, whatever few days are left will usher in a nice and welcoming 2017 for all of us.

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Daily Market Update –  December 23, 2016 (9:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: None

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GDX (12/19 $0.055), LVS (12/19 $0.72), DOW (12/23 $0.46)  

The following are ex-dividend next week:  CY (12/27 $0.11), GPS (12/30 $0.23)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  December 22, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Was the week before Christmas…..

We all know how the famous poem goes, but there’s not much stirring in these stock markets, either.

That’s how the view is this morning, as well, although we are awaiting a GDP report before the open.

Unless the results are very, very unexpected, there’s probably not too much reason to expect that stocks will do anything but what they’ve been doing all week.

That is, nothing.

That’s fine by be, as I think I’ve made pretty much all of the trades that I need to make, other than for some of those personal DOH trades that I hope to be doing a lot more of in 2017.

If you have the time and the stomach lining to deal with those, they can really be a great example of making lemonade out of lemons, as long as you also have the stocks in sufficient quantity to really make it worthwhile.

The bad news, of course, is that I have those big losers in big enough positions to make it worthwhile.

But when I look at the income stream that they can generate if not minding the hyper-focus and Rolaids necessary, they are the equivalent of a well paying job.

These days, that’s appealing in and of itself and I do believe that 2017 will really be a year of commodity prices, as we look at infrastructure program initiatives in the US and maybe some awakening in China.

Of course, with that may come the fear that will eventually return as we start thinking about multiple interest rate increases, but that’s an issue for another day.

I expect to be doing little today and am looking forward to a couple of holiday shortened trading weeks as I also count my time down.

Daily Market Update –  December 21, 2016 (Close)

For as quiet of a day as yesterday was, there were certainly plenty of trading opportunities.

Enough so, that I’m not left with any more rollovers for the week, at least not for positions expiring this week.

I even, uncharacteristically rolled over some positions not expiring for another 4 weeks, although both were dividend related rollovers.

This morning seemed as if it was going to get off to a quiet start, but for the most part, that has been the story since the election.

There really haven’t been any days that have telegraphed a large move up or down in the futures.

The market has just kept its steam and moved higher, a little at a time.

That definitely reminds me of 2007.

Back then, it seemed as if each and every day, heading into October of that year, was just one new high after another.

I don’t think that the next chapter is going to be like the one that followed those October 2007 highs, but I do like my cash position now much better than I did back then.

Or even a month ago.

So, for the rest of the week, I will probably be a bystander, although I still wouldn’t mind parting with some money.

Today wasn’t the day to do so, though and it did end up being a really quiet kind of a day.

Maybe even boring.

I almost parted with some money yesterday, with a name that wasn’t on the list this week and gave it another look or two today and maybe again tomorrow.

Otherwise, it could be a snoozer, even as we do have a GDP coming our way tomorrow,

Daily Market Update –  December 21, 2016 (7:30 AM)

For as quiet of a day as yesterday was, there were certainly plenty of trading opportunities.

Enough so, that I’m not left with any more rollovers for the week, at least not for positions expiring this week.

I even, uncharacteristically rolled over some positions not expiring for another 4 weeks, although both were dividend related rollovers.

This morning seems as if it is going to get off to a quiet start, but for the most part, that has been the story since the election.

There really haven’t been any days that have telegraphed a large move up or down in the futures.

The market has just kept its steam and moved higher, a little at a time.

That definitely reminds me of 2007.

Back then, it seemed as if each and every day, heading into October of that year, was just one new high after another.

I don’t think that the next chapter is going to be like the one that followed those October 2007 highs, but I do like my cash position now much better than I did back then.

Or even a month ago.

So, for the rest of the week, I will probably be a bystander, although I still wouldn’t mind parting with some money.

I almost did so yesterday, with a name that wasn’t on the list this week and will give it another look or two today.

Otherwise, it could be a snoozer, even as we do have a GDP coming our way tomorrow,

Daily Market Update –  December 20, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a pretty quiet day and it didn’t seem like today, or maybe even the rest of the year would be any different.

At the moment, there are far too many people calling for the market to continue moving higher, but it did anyway, today.

Even though I’ve been one of those people, I’ve been happy to be adding to my cash position, especially since there are so many people thinking that the next stop can only be higher.

One thing that history has taught us is that populism grows old very quickly.

It’s much easier to carp than to govern, so we’ll see just how all of this comes together, although there has to be reason to be hopeful in the near term.

A big part of that, though, has to be related to where we are finally on the economic cycle.

One of the slowest recoveries in history is finally seeming to get some traction and it looks as if we are also finally going to get some fuel added to the mix.

That may make things a little combustible, but it has been a long, long time since all of those cylinders have been firing.

I still may want to dip into my cash pile, but at this point, I would be much happier if I could make whatever I currently hold go to work.

That and getting a couple of rollovers for the week.

For my mouth to someone’s ear, because that’s exactly how today worked out, potentially leaving me nothing to do for the rest of the week.

I did try to make some of those rollover trades early yesterday and did really jump the gun on one that expires at the end of the month, but I was glad to see those trades get made today.

I would be especially glad to have an opportunity to close out the rolled over short put position in the event that Cliffs Natural Resources has another strong day tomorrow.

At this point, I want to accumulate income, income, income. Even if it means tying something down longer.

If that means holding onto something to get an additional 2% per month, I would be more than happy to be doing that ad infinitum.

If only….

That was the case with today’s rollover of Bristol Myers Squibb, which goes ex-dividend shortly after New Year’s and the case with Dow Chemical a few days ago, as it goes ex-dividend on Friday.

With those, I no longer mind if they get called early, as I will have already gotten the dividend in the form of more premium.

I don’t otherwise expect to be doing too much this week, but then again, I didn’t expect the market to be doing too much today and maybe not again in 2016.

Those expectations, though, do have a way of coming back at you.

Today, at least, that came back in a good way.

Daily Market Update –  December 20, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a pretty quiet day and it doesn’t seem like today, or maybe even the rest of the year will be any different.

At the moment, there are far too many people calling for the market to continue moving higher.

Even though I’ve been one of those people, I’ve been happy to be adding to my cash position, especially since there are so many people thinking that the next stop can only be higher.

One thing that history has taught us is that populism grows old very quickly.

It’s much easier to carp than to govern, so we’ll see just how all of this comes together, although there has to be reason to be hopeful in the near term.

A big part of that, though, has to be related to where we are finally on the economic cycle.

One of the slowest recoveries in history is finally seeming to get some traction and it looks as if we are also finally going to get some fuel added to the mix.

That may make things a little combustible, but it has been a long, long time since all of those cylinders have been firing.

I still may want to dip into my cash pile, but at this point, I would be much happier if I could make whatever I currently hold go to work.

That and getting a couple of rollovers for the week.

I did try to make some of those rollover trades early yesterday and did really jump the gun on one that expires at the end of the month.

At this point, I want to accumulate income, income, income. Even if it means tying something down longer.

If that means holding onto something to get an additional 2% per month, I would be more than happy to be doing that ad infinitum.

If only….

I don’t otherwise expect to be doing too much this week and I don’t expect the market to be doing too much today and maybe not again in 2016.

Those expectations, though, do have a way of coming back at you.

Daily Market Update –  December 19, 2016 (Close)

There isn’t too much going on this week in economic news, but for the first time in a year, it doesn’t really matter.

With the FOMC now having announced an interest rate increase, we all know that somewhere along the line there will be another one and we all know pretty much what those indicators are going to be.

One of those indicators, the GDP, does come this week.

What we will all be looking for is whether or not we get some surprises, like we did last year, when the expectations for growth following the FOMC’s rate hike, just didn’t materialize.

So we kept going back and forth between being elated that the economy wasn’t growing as expected to being disappointed.

I think that this time around there can only be disappointment.

But, it does appear as if the die has been cast.

What we don’t know is whether the words of the President-Elect, with regard to economic expansion through government fueled infra-structure programs is going to be a reality.

If so, then how much fuel will there be and how quickly?

That’s a series of questions for someone else.

This week I have lots of cash, two nice ex-dividend position and 2 expiring positions.

That means that I might not mind putting some money on the line, but do already have some income coming in for the week.

As has been the case for the past few months, I’ll be looking at commodities and perhaps ways to milk some change out of some long dormant positions, as well as generating some income from some new positions.

With markets at such highs, it’s hard to identify any single position or two that could warrant taking risk, but those uber-risky commodities seem to offer me the solace tat run of the mill stocks aren’t offering right now.

Hopefully, that won’t be the case through 2017 as we either approach an inflection point or a launching point in the next month or two.

The one trade that seemed worthwhile was trying to ensure that the Dow Chemical positions going ex-dividend on Friday and currently well in the money had a little more life in them.

Even though the options don’t expire until the end of the January 2017 option cycle, at the current share price there was a pretty good chance that they would get assigned early to capture that $0.46 (3.1%) dividend. By rolling over another month, even if assigned early, the $0.52 additional premium would more than make up for the lost dividend and get the cash from assignment back into my hot little hands in time to re-invest next Tuesday.

If not assigned early, then it’s like getting paid 2% for the month and still being able to withstand a 6% decline.

Not too bad, but I hope to do some more tomorrow, as today was a pretty listless day, otherwise

Daily Market Update –  December 19, 2016 (8:00 AM)

There isn’t too much going on this week in economic news, but for the first time in a year, it doesn’t really matter.

With the FOMC now having announced an interest rate increase, we all know that somewhere along the line there will be another one and we all know pretty much what those indicators are going to be.

One of those indicators, the GDP, does come this week.

What we will all be looking for is whether or not we get some surprises, like we did last year, when the expectations for growth following the FOMC’s rate hike, just didn’t materialize.

So we kept going back and forth between being elated that the economy wasn’t growing as expected to being disappointed.

I think that this time around there can only be disappointment.

But, it does appear as if the dye has been cast.

What we don’t know is whether the words of the President-Elect, with regard to economic expansion through government fueled infra-structure programs is going to be a reality.

If so, then how much fuel will there be and how quickly?

That’s a series of questions for someone else.

This week I have lots of cash, one nice ex-dividend position and 2 expiring positions.

That means that I might not mind putting some money on the line, but do already have some income coming in for the eek.

As has been the case for the past few months, I’ll be looking at commodities and perhaps ways to milk some change out of some long dormant positions, as well as generating some income from some new positions.

With markets at such highs, it’s hard to identify any single position or two that could warrant taking risk, but those uber-risky commodities seem to offer me the solace tat run of the mill stocks aren’t offering right now.

Hopefully, that won’t be the case through 2017 as we either approach an inflection point or a launching point in the next month or two.