Author: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update –  December 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

What can you possibly say about yesterday’s nearly 300 point advance?

Things just took off at about 11 AM and never looked back.

With the FOMC meeting coming up, you would have to think that the re-ignition of the Trump Rally after a brief rest could only mean that there isn’t too much fear about what the market will do if the FOMC delivers what is expected.

Given what happened last year, you would also have to believe that people with decent memory or having the ability to look at past charts, have also come to the belief that there will be no adverse delayed reaction to the FOMC’s decision this time around.

Yesterday was just another good day to go along for the ride, even as there was some opportunity to execute a rollover.

Of course, that rollover was of a “DOH” trade, so there was some anxiety over losing out on whatever short term strength there may be that could offset the longer term decline in the particular position.

With yesterday’s nearly 300 point gain, things do look more sedate this morning, but so did things yesterday at this same time.

With now only a single position set to expire tomorrow and that position looking well like it will be assigned, there may not be too much left to do, other than continuing to try and rollover Monday’s ex-dividend position that’s now well in the money, in an attempt to at least get a portion of the dividend in the form of some more premium.

Otherwise, it’s rest and relaxation and hoping that more of those paper gains become the real kind.

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Daily Market Update –  December 7, 2016 (9:30 AM)

The DJIA sits again at a new high as we get set to begin this morning and the S&P 500 is within easy striking distance.

Once again, this morning looks as if it may take a break, even as the world’s markets are advancing.

The real question remains how markets are going to react when the FOMC finally comes to a decision.

With the recent run up in stock prices is this the time to take profits or is this time to catapult to even greater highs?

There’s plenty of past history to support either of those paths, so it may be an eventful couple of weeks as we await what most everyone believes will be affirmation of the certainty of a tax increase.

As I look at the performance of my portfolio on the year, I’m just happy to see it keep doing what it has been doing.

That’s especially true when you think that for a portfolio that still has energy and commodity positions, there may be more good things to come as the economy heats up.

Patience may really have its virtues, especially when there aren’t very many predictable alternatives if you elect to be impatient.

The relative performance of markets have punished those who’ve decided to sell losers, such as energy and commodities and invest their money elsewhere.

The likelihood is that your idea of elsewhere hasn’t been quite the performer that you had been hoping to find as a replacement for your losers that you had dumped.

With the exception of those that go the bankruptcy route, almost everything else lives in some kind of cyclical pattern, if you can live long enough to see that big picture complete itself.

At this point, I just want to make it to 2017.

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Daily Market Update –  December 6, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday, at least for the most part, there were more indications that the Trump Rally was going to continue.

This morning it looked as if markets would take a break, at least at the start.

With more new closing records on the DJIA, 2016 looks as if it is going to end on a good foot.

Last year, following a bump higher after the FOMC raised interest rates, the market gave up its head of steam heading into the close of the year and then simply proceeded to lose about 10% until turning around on a dime.

This year, we may find ourselves being set up for the same thing, but the difference this year is that we may finally have a good earnings season to really bring us to a better place.

Yesterday was another day to just go along for the ride and today was the same.

I could get used to that.

That has been much of the story with 2016, but as much as I may want to complain about the lack of trading on the year, with only 31 closed positions, when I look at the relative performance compared to the S&P 500, I don’t really have anything to complain about.

What I thought that I’d end up doing today was just adding to the boredom of the whole year and that I would likely end up doing nothing.

While I did make another DOH Trade yesterday, I decided not to make it part of the OTP Recommendation. Because we’re still having to manage last week’s DOH Trade, I thought that 2 of the same was just too many when faced with the unexpected runs higher that both of those positions have had.

Sometimes there’s only so many things that you can balance when they all need undivided attention.

So of course, I made another DOH trade today and again chose not to burden anyone with it, but it did seem as if some may have followed suit as I looked at the volume. The difference, though, was that instead of going for just a single week, I elected to go out 2 weeks on the expiration.

So the week may still end up being a quiet one on a personal level, with the exception of a couple of expiring positions.

Even as the market is heading toward these new highs, or maybe because of it, I am not minding increasing my cash position.

At this point in time, I would actually love to see a 5% decline, now that I have sufficient enough cash to do something about relative bargains that might then appear.

It has been a long time since that’s been the case.

While I don’t expect that to happen, with next week’s FOMC Statement release, you still have to be prepared for the unexpected, regardless of how telegraphed things look at this moment in time.

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MONDAY:   It looks as if the market may be ready to resume the Trump Rally as the week gets underway

TUESDAY:    Maybe another day of rest today, but the trend is pretty clear.

WEDNESDAY:  

THURSDAY:  

FRIDAY:. 







Daily Market Update –  December 5, 2016 (Close)

The week looks as if it wants to get back to the Trump Rally.

Futures were showing a decent gain and there really didn’t appear to be any headwinds, even as the FOMC is getting ready to announce their first interest rate cut in a year.

It would also be only the second rate increase in about 10 years, even as we were expecting multiple rate hikes this year.

Now that expectation is for 2017.

At the moment, the stock market seems to be reacting precisely the same way it did last year.

But if it follows what id did last year, then a week or two after the rumor becomes news, it may be a good time to be positioned to pick up some bargains.

I’m at my highest cash position in quite some time and have enjoyed a really good 2016.

Being more and more in cash means that some of that really good year has been realized and not just on paper.

Of course, it also means potentially missing out some on any more rally that may await.

I do think that there’s more ahead, but this time I think that it may finally be corporate earnings that will move us forward, or at least offset whatever fear may hit investors if multiple rate hikes become a concern.

With cash in hand, multiple ex-dividend positions and a couple of positions expiring this week, I’m in a good position.

I have cash coming in, but also available for anything that looks good.

With a number of positions also expiring next week, I’m looking forward to closing the books on 2016.

I’m not quite certain what to expect this week, nor what I may do, nut I don’t think that I’ll be too busy trading.

Lately, going along for the ride and finding some opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions has been a nice way to go.

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Daily Market Update –  December 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The week looks as if it wants to get back to the Trump Rally.

Futures are showing a decent gain and there really don’t appear to be any headwinds, even as the FOMC is getting ready to announce their first interest rate cut in a year.

It would also be only the second rate increase in about 10 years, even as we were expecting multiple rate hikes this year.

Now that expectation is for 2017.

At the moment, the stock market seems to be reacting precisely the same way it did last year.

But if it follows what id did last year, then a week or two after the rumor becomes news, it may be a good time to be positioned to pick up some bargains.

I’m at my highest cash position in quite some time and have enjoyed a really good 2016.

Being more and more in cash means that some of that really good year has been realized and not just on paper.

Of course, it also means potentially missing out some on any more rally that may await.

I do think that there’s more ahead, but this time I think that it may finally be corporate earnings that will move us forward, or at least offset whatever fear may hit investors if multiple rate hikes become a concern.

With cash in hand, multiple ex-dividend positions and a couple of positions expiring this week, I’m in a good position.

I have cash coming in, but also available for anything that looks good.

With a number of positions also expiring next week, I’m looking forward to closing the books on 2016.

I’m not quite certain what to expect this week, nor what I may do, nut I don’t think that I’ll be too busy trading.

Lately, going along for the ride and finding some opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions has been a nice way to go.

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Daily Market Update –  December 2, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: BX

Expirations:   MRO (puts)

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GME (11/29 $0.37), MOS (11/29 $0.275), ANF (11/30 $0.20)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  December 1, 2016 (Close)

It’s December and we are sitting right at all time highs.

OK, maybe the S&P 500 wasn’t paying attention today, but how about that DJIA?

If your portfolio has energy and commodities in it, you are doing far better than anyone else, although if you had them last year, as I did, you would have said close to the opposite.

Put it all together, year building upon year, and some of those things work out, especially if there are little cushions like option premiums and dividends along the way.

Those make it easier to wait out what we all know are cycles.

What we never know is when a cycle begins nor ends, nor do we ever know its length.

Who, in the face of a worldwide economy that wasn’t really shrinking, ever believe that energy prices would go so low and then stay so low for so long?

But that’s what it is as we are now again faced with oil above $50.

We again will see whether it can stabilize above that level or whether increased supply will push price lower again.

What may be different this time is that the market has reason to go up or down on its own merits and not solely on the price of oil, as it had dome through so much of the past year.

As December comes around and the year comes to its end, we just have to watch and see what the FOMC does, but probably more importantly what will be said in its statement and what kind of things are said at the subsequent Chairman’s press conference.

After that, it’s just a case of waiting to see if corporate profits do follow the path that it looks as if they may finally take and whether or not our new President can move his agenda forward.

I for one, am looking forward to 2017, despite a very satisfying 2016 in the market.

The countdown begins today and maybe tomorrow brings us a taste of what the rest of 2016 may hold.

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