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Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (Close) Yesterday we were back to the usual. It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher. The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks. The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes. All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher. This morning’s futures were setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil was beginning the morning unchanged. So that catalyst for a move wasn’t in the equation yet for today and futures traders didn’t seem to see anything substantive this week to get terribly excited about. That definitely sums it up for me. That also summed it up for the market today, as oil did turn lower and stocks did give up the previous day’s gains and more. At least there was an opportunity to rollover the one expiring position. At this point, I think that i would rather be a serial rollover trader than being faced with assignment. That way, even stock mediocrity can end up with great returns and without the added challenge of then having to find replacement sources of income. At this point, I would have been happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season. After today, next week and the beginning of earnings season can’t come soon enough. At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues. If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy. But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case. I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue. With just a day remaining, there’s now even less chance of me opening a new position this week. With that rollover already having been accomplished, i have no great aspirations for tomorrow, but definitely wouldn’t say no to a day that erases today’s poor performance. . . . |
